
Evan Longoria is one of the top prospects in the game.
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Fall – the leaves turning colors,
the chill setting in to the night air, and the top prospects taking to the
desert. Sure, the other two might be more familiar to most than the Arizona
Fall League, but if you are not familiar with the AFL, you better get familiar
soon.
Every year, six teams are built out of the
best prospects from each organization. The players you see here are on the fast track to the majors. Of course, I can say that and you can dismiss it as
hyperbole, so let me give you some names just from last year:
Ryan Braun, Troy
Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Kevin Frandsen, Troy Patton,
Kevin
Slowey, and Mark Reynolds
If you do not think those players
had an impact this year, you were not paying attention. Braun and Tulowitzki
will be Nos. 1 and 2 in Rookie of the Year balloting when it is officially
announced – no, we do not know which order – and Reynolds was a big part of the Diamondbacks making the playoffs. Slowey, Patton, Frandsen, and Escobar all contributed to varying degrees to their teams as well this year.
With all that said, who are this year’s ten to know? Here you go…
1. Matt LaPorta, Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers – There was no more shocking draft pick this year than LaPorta by the Brewers. No other team saw LaPorta as anything other than a first baseman, and the Brewers already have an MVP candidate at first base. However, the Brewers saw the potential in him as a corner outfielder, and that is where he is playing right now in the AFL. Through 11 games, LaPorta is the league leader in RBI with 12, tied for second with three home runs, and he holds a .293 batting average and an OPS over 1.000.
2. Evan Longoria, Third Base, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – The league leader in home runs with four, Longoria is one
of the top prospects in the game and he has done nothing at all to dissuade
from us making him the No. 1 prospect this winter with his performance in the
desert. Hitting .317 with a 1.063 OPS, Longoria is doing it with more than just
the long ball though. The one area for concern though is 12 strikeouts and just
three walks in 41 at-bats.
3. Elvis Andrus, Shortstop, Texas Rangers – We have been waiting and waiting and waiting for Andrus to live up to some of the hype that has surrounded him. A five-tool stud, Andrus has had the talent but has not had the numbers. Sound familiar? That is pretty much how we felt about Hanley Ramirez for a while too. Now in the Rangers’ system, Andrus performed significantly better when he shifted from the Carolina League to the California League, hitting .300 with two homers, 12 RBI,
and 15 stolen bases in 27 games. Andrus has not picked up a lot of action in
the AFL so far with just four games, but in those four he has already swiped
three bags. Look for Andrus to hit Double-A to open the year, and he could make his first appearance in the bigs by midseason.
4. Jack Egbert, Starting Pitcher, Chicago White Sox – Few pitchers’ stock has risen faster this year than Egbert’s has, as he was 12-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 28 starts in Double-A. In 161 2/3 innings, Egbert struck out 165 and walked just 44. Egbert has pitched just five innings in the AFL so far, but the fact that he is there is in an indication of how high the White Sox are on him – look for him to be in Triple-A at the very least next year and for him to be a sleeper candidate for the rotation in the spring.
5. Ricky Nolasco, Starting Pitcher, Florida Marlins – While not a true prospect, as he has been up in the bigs,
Nolasco is trying to get back on track after a season that was completely
ravaged by injury. One should keep in mind that he is still very young too, as
he will not turn 25 until right before Christmas. In three starts this fall,
Nolasco has a 4.15 ERA over 8 2/3 innings, with nine strikeouts and just two
walks. The ERA is not of importance here – this is a hitter’s league, and pitchers are not left in long to protect their arms. The control numbers though do matter, and it is nice to see Nolasco getting back to striking batters out. Look for him to be a back-of-the-rotation starter to open 2008, and he could be a very interesting sleeper to watch.
6. Kila Kaaihue, First Base, Kansas City Royals – Between High-A and Double-A this season, Kaaihue belted out 21 homers and knocked in 82 RBI in 451 at-bats while also striking out just two more times than he walked. The only area at the plate that was lacking was in his batting average, which was just .248 between the two levels, but his OBP was much higher thanks to the walks, coming in at .359. Down in the AFL, that one weakness has been turned into strength, as he is hitting .412 through five
games, with two home runs, seven RBI, and seven walks with just four
strikeouts. The Royals will move Kaaihue up to Triple-A to open the season, but they have not have a solid first baseman in years so the possibility of him
starting there at some point in 2008 is significant.
7. German Duran, Second Base, Texas Rangers – An excellent first half of 2007 got Duran on the map and while he cooled off he still finished strong, with a .300 batting average, 22 home runs, 84 RBI, 81 runs, and 11 stolen bases in 480 at-bats with the Double-A Frisco RoughRiders. His stock continues to rise in the AFL, hitting .313 with two home runs, five RBI, and eight runs scored in 32 at-bats. Look for Duran to open the 2008 season in Triple-A.
8. Nyjer Morgan, Outfield, Pittsburgh Pirates – Morgan made his way all the way up to the bigs by the end of the 2007 season, and his calling card is his speed, having swiped 26 bases
in 33 attempts in the minors this year and 59 in 59 in 81 attempts in 2006. The
problem, however, is that the speed is all that Morgan really has. Through nine
games in the AFL this fall, Morgan does have four stolen bases, in six
attempts, but he also has just a .176 batting average. Morgan should be back in the bigs to open 2008, but he is clearly from the Brian Hunter mold – speed to
burn, and nothing else at all.
9. Andrew McCutchen, Outfield, Pittsburgh Pirates – Sticking with the Pirates’ outfielder theme, McCutchen is
a highly-rated prospect due to his tools, but the numbers have not been there
yet. Of course, the Pirates have been aggressively pushing him, well past
levels of those in his age bracket. McCutchen spent this season in Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old, having just turned 21 this month. Between those two levels, McCutchen hit .265 with 11 homers, 53 RBI, 77 runs, and 21 stolen bases (in 25 attempts) in 513 at-bats. Through 33 at-bats in the AFL so far, McCutchen is hitting .273 with an RBI, six runs scored, and two stolen bases, albeit in five steal attempts. McCutchen could return to Triple-A to open 2008, but he is already better than Morgan and could open the year in the bigs and force Morgan to the bench. Either way, McCutchen will bench Morgan by season’s end.
10. David Purcey, Starting Pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays – The Moneyball-lite mentality of the Blue Jays has done nothing but harm to a system that was once one of the better ones in the game, and they are no longer churning out prospects like they used to. One player that could help turn that around would be Purcey, their first round selection in 2004. Purcey made just 11 starts in New Hampshire this season, and his results were not good, as he was 3-5 with a 5.37 ERA, striking out 55 and walking 16 in 62 innings. This of course was a major step back for Purcey, as he had finished 2006 in Triple-A. Elbow trouble did not help this season, but Purcey has not lived up to his draft status even when healthy. Through three starts in the AFL this year, Purcey is leading the league in strikeouts with 13, and a good season here could reignite some talk around Purcey, but he is also starting to run out of time to show something. Is it too soon to write off a first rounder from just three years ago? Maybe, but he has also shown no reason not to. The AFL will be make or break for him.