The lack of power from Prince Fielder has fantasy managers wondering whether something is wrong with Big Daddy's son.
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Who knew at this point in the season, I’d be cursing Prince Fielder? I had high expectations, as I’m sure most of you did, of this kid who pounded 50 HR at the ripe age of 22 last season. When you looked at drafting him this year Prince seemed to have everything going for him. He hits in the middle of a great line up, with tons of RBI opportunities. He had a ton of the proverbial and coveted upside, and a great home run pedigree being that his father, Cecil Fielder, also had success with the long ball. However, right now he has to be the single most disappointing player that was likely drafted in the first round of your league, with an average of .273, 6 home runs and 25 RBI. It’s really hard to believe that those are his numbers so far this season. What’s happened to Big Daddy’s high-octane home run machine of a son?
I’ve read articles about the ‘lack of beef’ in his off-season diet affecting his power. Not that you can’t discount that fact, but really let’s look at this logically. The kid just came off a season where he hit 50 home runs. I guarantee that every team in the league has dissected video of Fielder’s at-bats from last year during the off-season. The kid broke out in a huge way last year and was not only your fantasy radar, but on every opposing team’s as well. They’d be asking themselves, “How does this guy keep burning us? Maybe we should try and prevent that next time”. If you play in the NL Central, you have to face Fielder’s powerful bat in at least 15 games during the year. That is a daunting task! You’re going to want to have a way to keep the ball in the park when he comes to the plate if you want have any chance of winning games in the division. My thinking here is, that the league has adjusted to Big Daddy’s big son. They have found some weakness in the monster’s armour and are getting away with a relentless attack on him. The reason I think this, is that if you look at all the numbers, outside of home runs and batting average, his numbers haven’t been that far off last year’s. He’s not striking out more, or walking less. His on-base percentage is a bit down from last year, but its still a respectable number. To me that means he is still seeing the ball well. He’s just not making solid contact because the pitches he is seeing this year aren’t the same. In addition, its very likely he’s pressing. As a 2nd year player, he lit up the league, and now feels the pressure of having to repeat those numbers to establish himself as a superstar in the league. That pressure could be causing Fielder to swing at pitches he may not like, just to get hits, to break out of the slump. As far as power numbers are concerned though, I tend to look at one thing; if he’s not hitting home runs, is he just missing? Is the lack of home runs due to an increase in doubles? The answer: His doubles rate is very similar to what it was last year.
To me he’s a fantastic buy low candidate. Why? If baseball has taught me anything, it is that players tend to produce relatively similar results from year to year. This is true of hitters even more so than pitchers. In other words, the time to buy is now, as he should come around and club at least 20 HR the rest of the way. However, you’re not going to get him for ‘cheap’. He still has great ‘name’ value in a trade, by which I mean, his name is still fresh in people’s minds as being a stud-ly home run hitter. He’s still an exciting young player who tends to get overvalued in trade talks. Still, if you can trade for him with anything below a 1st round player, you’d have to consider that a win. As the motto goes, “Sell high, buy low!” You can’t buy Fielder any lower. So right now you’re asking yourself how does the information help me if I own him? I’ve been patient all year and he hasn’t started to produce like he should yet. It’s almost June!! And I’m freaking out!! Simply put, you have to remain patient. It would be unlikely for you to get a top player in return for him right now, and you can’t give up on him now because you’d be selling him low, as in selling him before he starts to progress towards his better, end of season numbers. As I mentioned, he is still seeing the ball well, and he is still making respectable contact. Fielder simply has to make the adjustments to how the pitchers are handling him to hit for power again.
Jay Bruce’s debut was stellar from a fantasy perspective. He went 3-3 with 2 runs batted in, notching a stolen base to boot! This will only drive up his trade value in fantasy leagues. A lot of people are predicting a few struggles due to his high strike out rate in the minors. In one year leagues Bruce would make an ideal sell high with all the hype surrounding his debut. I’m sure he’ll be a great addition to any team for power, but rookies often end up struggling before long. I’d try to sell him to the highest bidder. Keeper leaguers might want to think twice before accepting an offer.
Aaron Laffey pitched well again. He’s likely not as available in leagues as he was last week but if he’s available I’d suggest picking him up. He’s pitched well, and although he’s not a strong source of strikeouts, he’s been pitching well enough to win. Cleveland should be a team that gives starters some wins as they have a fairly effective bullpen and a good offense.
Two guys I’m sure most of us wished we drafted are Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin. Hamilton had another stellar night, 2-5 with a home run and 5 RBI. He’s hitting a monstrous .329 for the season with 13 home runs. Scary good. Quentin has truly found his way this season with a .300 batting average and 14 home runs so far. Last night was a bit of an off night for him as his only hit landed him on the bench. Straight in the jock! I’m wincing just thinking about it.
Kevin Kouzmanoff continues to produce with a home run last night and 4 in the past week. He was a guy who a lot of people though might break out this year. He’ll get some solid power numbers although his ceiling is limited because of the “PETCO effect”. I remember him starting relatively slow last year so I think you’ll have a limited time in which to ‘buy low’.
A lot of DL bound players from yesterday but two that concern me based on the type if injury. Gary Sheffield has an oblique injury. Don’t ignore this injury with Sheffield’s age creeping on him. This muscle is relied upon to swing a bat. If you remember from last season, Manny Ramirez had the same injury in the middle of the summer and I don’t think he fully recovered until this year. Travis Hafner has a shoulder issue. Not this surprises me given his lack of production this year, but going forward he’d be somebody I’d be trying to sell as opposed to buying low. Shoulder injuries and power hitters don’t mix.
