In a season full of surprises, Cliff Lee has been one of the more pleasant ones.
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If there is one thing that can be said of this season it’s that it has been full of surprises. Speaking strictly from a fantasy perspective, there is a long list of players whose performance this season is either surprisingly good, or jaw dropping bad. Just for fun, I thought I’d take a look at some of these, and share my thoughts about what to expect going forward from some of these guys. We’ll go with two lists here, Top 10 Pleasant Surprises, and the Top 10 Nasty Surprises – in no particular order.
10 Pleasant Surprises of the 2008 Season (so far):
Carlos Quentin – I wondered whether this should really be a surprise, as he was touted as a great player two years ago, when he first showed up on everyone’s radar. Most folks were down on him after last season’s disappointing showing. This year he’s been as good, or better than most had predicted. He should continue to mash, and should end up among the top 10 in most of the power offensive categories.
Dioner Navarro – We all knew he could hit, but nobody expected a .338 average from Navarro. His average should come down a bit, but I’m willing to wager he stays above .300 for the season.
Chipper Jones – Every season the touts predict a dropoff from Jones, primarily because of his difficulties staying healthy, and every season he finds a way to post stellar numbers despite not playing a full slate of games. This season he’s flirting with .400, and has an excellent chance of accomplishing what no man has accomplished in 67 years.
Milton Bradley – Bradley is in his ninth season in MLB, and the Texas Rangers are the sixth organization he has played for; Bradley’s story is one of countless interpersonal issues, injury-shortened seasons, and many worn out welcomes. But more than anything it’s about largely unfulfilled potential. Since his much-touted arrival in 2000, Bradley has shown flashes of incredible productivity, with power, speed, and athleticism that few players have in such prodigious quantity. With Texas he is finally putting it all together over an extended period. Here’s hoping he can at least play a full season, at what is surely his best, without any of his old demons rearing their ugly heads.
Jorge Cantu – Cantu was a hitting machine in 2005 with Tampa, who seemed to completely lose it all just one season later. By 2007, he looked to be done. Not so fast! He’s found himself again, this time right in his old backyard.
Cliff Lee – It’s hard to believe that Lee spent most of last season in the minors trying to find his confidence and stuff. And to think the Indians nearly traded him away this winter.
Ednison Volquez – How did the Texas Rangers miss the mark so badly in evaluating this guy? The Reds front office must be absolutely giddy every time he pitches another gem.
The Tampa Bay Rays – Yep, the whole dang team. You had to know they were going to be better, if only because they couldn’t possibly have gotten any worse. But nobody predicted that they would be anywhere near this good.
J.D. Drew – Red Sox GM Theo Epstein took an awful amount of abuse last year for giving Drew $15M per season. The way he is hitting this year is finally making Epstein look like a genius. Again.
Tim Lincecum –He has an 8-1 record, is second in MLB in strikeouts and ERA, third in win %, and he’s doing it all for one of the worst teams in baseball. If the Giants ever build up their team around him, he is a Cy Young award waiting to happen.
10 Disappointments of the 2008 Season (so far):
Nick Swisher – Many folks thought Swisher would thrive in Chicago’s lineup and put up career type numbers. Some touts were talking 30 homers, 100 RBI, 100 Runs as a baseline. Instead, he’s barely hit above .200 most of the way, and is on the waiver wire in many leagues.
Eric Byrnes – He had 23 home runs and 50 steals last season. Many folks would have been happy with 20 homers and 25 steals when they drafted him this season. He’ll be lucky to go 15/15 once he is finally healthy.
Adam LaRoche – He started slowly last season, but batted .312 in the second half. Many thought he’d be hitting better by now, but he’s hitting .176 in June. He’s the East Coast’s version of Richie Sexson
Victor Martinez – He’s a career .299 hitter whose averaged 20 home runs per season over the last four years. This season he’s batting .278 without a single home run and his OBP has fallen through the floor. He must be taking hitting lessons from Pronk (who could easily be on this list too, except I’m not surprised by his lousy season)
Ian Kennedy – The Yankees refused to part with him for Johan Santana? Really? Kennedy couldn’t even hang in there against teams like the Royals and Orioles. The Yanks tried a brief stint in the minors to find himself, when he came back he ended up on the DL in short order. Methinks the Yanks should have made the deal.
The Detroit Tigers – The AL Central is easily the most mediocre division in baseball, how else can you explain the Twins hanging on in second place? The Tigers spent a small fortune on two overweight, overrated players; one of whom is now plying his trade in Class A ball.
Barry Zito – There is no explanation for what has happened to Zito. The Giants wanted so desperately to turn him around that they assigned him to the bullpen, and then backed off before he made a single relief appearance. Zito has replaced Barry Bonds as the poster boy for the Giants front office stupidity
The Seattle Mariners – Where do you start with this team? After acquiring Erik Bedard to give them a great one-two punch in the rotation with King Felix, the Mariners looked like contenders. But their lineup features a washed out Richie Sexon, a punchless DH in Jose Vidro, and a bunch of sub-replacement level scrappers; and nobody in the organization is being held accountable for this mess.
Ryan Howard – He is still hitting for incredible power, but his batting average is just .212. He is lucky the Phillies have Chase Utley to carry the team; otherwise the boo-birds in Philly would run him out of town on a rail.
The Colorado Rockies – Talk about going from first to worst! They’ve been hit hard with injuries, but the truth is that this team was doomed long before the injuries started piling up. The main culprit is their pitching, which is just nowhere near as good as it was last season.
There are so many others that could be added to both lists, so perhaps there will be a part two to this column. In the meantime, let’s see what there is to see in the box scores this morning.
Aaron Harang willed his team to a win over the Red Sox last night, and improved his record to 3-9 (ouch!). Harang needed 117 pitches to get through seven innings of work, but he did strike out 7, didn’t walk anybody, and held the Sox to one run on four hits. He should have a good second half; so don’t bail on Harang if you own him. He’s a great buy low target if you don’t own him.
In that same game, Sean Casey got his 1,500th career hit. I think about 1,455 of them have been singles. Sorry – just kidding. He’s batting .371 this season!
There’s a big hole in Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s game that is going to be a problem for him down the line if he remains a catcher. The guy simply cannot stop anybody from stealing. Case in point – against the Mets Friday night, Carlos Freakin’ Delgado, he of 14 career stolen bases, had a stolen base against Salty. In 22 games, Salty has allowed 22 stolen bases and thrown out just two runners. Keep this in mind when your fantasy players are facing the Rangers.
On the other side of the coin, it looks like the Astros were trying to exploit Jorge Posada’s recent shoulder injury with seven attempted steals. Posada managed to throw them out three out of seven times. You really can’t ask any more of your catcher, at some point the pitchers have to do a better job of getting the ball to the plate quicker
How much longer are the Brewers going to let Dave Bush pitch? He’s now 2-7 after his latest stinker against the Twins. Of course, his team didn’t exactly help with two errors that led to a total of 6 unearned runs. If you have Bush on your fantasy team, make sure you get rid of him, and then give yourself a punishment for not paying attention. Bush has been bad all year.
Brad Hawpe had another dinger Friday night, his third in 7 games since coming off the DL. I wrote Hawpe up in my latest Waiver Wire Wonders column, and believe he is set to go off and have a big second half. If he was left for dead on your waiver wire, you’ll do well for yourself by grabbing him now, before the rest of the world wakes up to him.
The Dodgers fell to the Tigers Friday night and were only able to manage 3 hits off of Armando Galarraga. They’ve lost 7 of their last 10 and seem totally lost without Raphael Furcal, whom they have recently replaced with Angel Berroa. Talk about a downgrade! By the way, the news on Furcal is not good. It was recently revealed that his back is really bad, and that he won’t be back until after the All Star break at the earliest. There is also a distinct possibility that he is done for the year, which explains the Berroa move.
That’s all for me today folks.
Shake it easy.