The Big Hurt was a productive player in Toronto, he just wasn't worth the gobs of money that they threw at him.
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This week let’s take a look at how fantasy baseball principles could be used by real major league general managers. For this example, let’s look at J.P. Ricciardi, GM of the Toronto Blue Jays. I’ll try and take look at other GMs in future weeks. Being a Jays fan myself, I’ve seen the mediocre results of his decision making. There are obviously a ton more ‘reality’ decisions, that we don’t see that Ricciardi has on his plate on a daily basis, but my results are based solely on his personnel acquisitions, in no particular order You may find this useful, as sometimes major league GM’s make the same decisions, good or bad, that fantasy GM’s do.
Free agent signing of Frank Thomas
This move was what we like to call ‘paying for a career year’. The Big Hurt was coming off a year where he belted 39 home runs. A phenomenal feat, but Thomas was also on a rescue mission contract from Billy Beane and the A’s. Thomas had outlived his home in Chicago after playing his entire career there. Mind you, he had been mired by injuries over his past seasons forcing the White Sox to cut ties to their former franchise player. Without a home, Oakland swooped in, him giving him an incentive laden contract which Thomas than parlayed into a guaranteed contract from JP and the Jays. Its not that JP didn’t acquire a good player, he just paid through the nose to do it. At $9 million, he signed a 38-year-old permanent designated hitter coming off the best year he’d had in 5 years. The money would have been justifiable if he was a position player who could sometimes play the field if someone was injured, or to give a player a day off. Thomas still put up good numbers last season, notching 26 home runs with 100 RBI, but these are far removed from the numbers he put up the year prior. The point to take away from Ricciardi’s decision is not to overpay (through auction or a high draft pick) coming off of contract years expecting the same statistics.
Free agent signing of B.J. Ryan
Don’t get me wrong, I love B.J. Ryan as a player but Ricciardi broke the golden rule of fantasy baseball. Don’t pay for saves! Where he went right, Ryan was a relatively new closer at that time and taking a chance on him in the 2006 season panned out. Where he went wrong was spending top dollars on a closer of any kind. Mind you, the Jays did not have a viable closer for many seasons prior to this which may have been why J.P. forked out $10 million a year. However, from a fantasy perspective, he could have gotten a cheaper reliever to do basically the same thing. Which leads me to…
Trading Shea Hillenbrand for Jeremy Accardo
I found this trade to be one of Ricciardi’s smarter moves. Not only did he do his homework with Accardo, he got rid of a clubhouse cancer. Accardo was a rookie pitcher but one of the harder to hit pitchers in the league, and Hillenbrand was a respected bat that was on a steady decline. So he sold high and bought low. At the time this trade was overlooked because of the media circus surrounding the boxing match between Hillenbrand and manager Gibbons a few days prior. However, Accardo’s value soared in 2007 when he saved 30 games for them with an outstanding 2.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Considering where Hillenbrand is now (if you’re out there reading my article Shea buddy, please shoot me an email) and the circumstances that precipitated the trade, this was a very good move for Ricciardi. What I take away from this is to remember why you sell high and buy low. You want to get the results on both ends. Ricciardi got the best years of Hillenbrand for the best years of Accardo. A lot of people tend to forget you have to take a bit of a risk when selling high in a trade.
Free agent signing of A.J. Burnett
This is one move of Ricciardi’s which I’d say I’m completely neutral on. I don’t think he won or lost making this move. Burnett has been inconsistent, but somehow successful statistically at the end of the season. He’s not a player I could ever label ‘gutsy’ or ‘sturdy’. At the time of his signing, it seemed like a lot of money to invest in a pitcher of any kind but especially one with his injury history. That was until Carlos Silva got even more money from the Mariners last season. At the end of his tenure, (likely this season), Burnett didn’t win the Jays a championship, but he’s been an effective when healthy, yet injury prone starter. In fantasy, you’ve likely taken a look at pitchers like Burnett every year. Put your hands up if you own both Ben Sheets and Rich Harden? Josh Beckett maybe? Better yet, put up your hand if you were thinking drafting one of these guys would be your ‘sleeper’ pick of the year. What you want though is return on investment. If you draft Burnett high, which you would likely have to do, you’d like to see consistent effective pitching results. J.P. used a large sum of money on a skilled starting pitcher who had never been a very healthy player, much like fantasy owners using high picks or bids to do the same. With pitchers, I try to minimize risk and save myself some head aches. Guys like Burnett, although effective, end up being more of a hassle to own because of the injuries.There are many other moves made by Ricciardi we could analyze here which would make for an interesting study of both baseball and the fantasy game. For example, signing Vernon Wells to a huge contract (is Vernon Wells a first round quality player?) or the results of letting Kelvim Escobar and Carlos Delgado go via free agency. In the end, J.P. Ricciardi’s moves have not helped or hurt the Blue Jays. They are the model franchise of mediocrity. I remain adamant, that if Billy Beane had the money the Toronto Blue Jays have, they would be in the midst of a dynasty. I don’t think it hurts to watch how major league general managers manage their rosters from time to time. They have more complex issues to deal with (i.e. MONEY), but essentially it is very similar to what you and I deal with on a daily basis: the perceived value of a given player and talent evaluation based on statistical analysis. That’s a lot of words to describe educated guesses! Anyway, just some food for thought…
Felix Hernandez had another nice start striking out nine over seven innings Tuesday. For those that have doubted his performance this year, he’s making a strong case for the ‘break out’ season so far. Just look at his overall numbers; 91 strike outs over 103 innings pitched with a 2.87 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The WHIP could stand to be a bit better, but overall you can’t be disappointed with those numbers.
Ubaldo Jimenez
had another effective start on Monday. The main reason you’ll be interested in a Colorado pitcher at all is because he struck out seven Braves over five innings. I’m not completely sold on him yet, but in deeper leagues, he should not be available. He’s got a phenomenal arm and has the coveted ‘upside’.
Atlanta Braves outfielder, Brandon Jones has been surprisingly hot after being called up from AAA. He’s 10/21 in the last week with a .476 batting average, a home run and four RBI. Although a capable player, his minor league numbers were not exactly exciting. I would pick him up while he’s hitting, but be prepared to drop him if someone better comes along.
Cleveland’s Ben Francisco is making a believer out of me. I’ve had him on a couple of my teams now for over a month. His numbers overall, a .312 batting average with four home runs and three stolen bases have been very useful. These might not be exciting, eye-popping numbers, but he has hit .375 over the past week, and continues to be a nice source of batting average. He should also be a decent source of steals and home runs since his minor league numbers back up his current major league success. He’s only 26 years old so still young enough to consider this surge ‘for real’.
Kelly Shoppach is the “2nd Catcher of the Week”. He provides nothing else but pop, but from a 2nd catcher that’s really all you want. With Victor Martinez on the shelf for at least a month, he makes a great fill in catcher. From last week, Jesus Flores still makes for a good pickup as well.
That’s all for this week. Enjoy the interleague games.
