Someone needs to tell Sexson that "sleeper" doesn't mean laying down on the job at first base.
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Well we’re nearing the midway point of the season and the All Star Break will soon be upon us. For fantasy pundits you can take a few days off to relax and not worry about trades, free agent pick ups or box scores. Wait, that’s bad advice. If there is a time people tend to fall asleep its here in the summer months. Vacation and poor results in the standings can lead some managers to ignore their team. Pay close attention to the free agents available in your league, especially in keeper leagues at this point. Last week I suggested Adam Lind and Jeff Clement. This week I’d add Chris Davis, who projects to be a solid power hitter. Do not sleep on Shin-Soo Choo or Daric Barton either. All of the these players are all still very young and due to current question marks surrounding their playing time for this current year are slightly underrated. If you’re out of this year’s contention, you can’t go wrong taking a nice low risk, high upside gamble with any of the above players. Really, what do you have to lose?
In the past, I’ve also found this to be a good time to sneak in a waiver claim on a player, who some might be sleeping on. This is also a nice time to snag free agents who have had a bad first half-season. Although, don’t automatically assume that a player who has regressed in the first half of the year is guaranteed to tee off in the second half. Even players that have a history of performing poorly early and turning it on late sometimes don’t follow through with this trend from year to year.
A couple of quick glances at some key stats can give you an idea if a player has been under performing, or just plain performing poorly. The reason I’d look for a second half rebound player is that you can take advantage of a few extra hits, that may lead to an increase in your batting average for the year. It’s always good to get the player BEFORE he goes on a tear. So let’s take a quick glance at the current batting average on balls in play, (BABIP), and contact rates. For example let’s look at three players who are normally solid second half hitters, Adrian Beltre, Adam LaRoche and Richie Sexson.
Adam LaRoche has a history of hitting more than 50 points better after the break. (.249 before vs. .296 after) His current contact rate of .755 and below league average BABIP (.263) makes him an interesting pick up or trade candidate. He doesn’t necessarily hit for more power in the second half, but you can expect at least an increase to his batting average over the next few months.
Say what you will about Adrian Beltre, but his contact rate of .833 and his BABIP of .252 practically screams that a second half rebound is coming. When you consider that he traditionally hits 20 points higher after the break, it make him in a terrific trade target. What really stands out is over his career he’s hit 25 more home runs in the second half.
Richie Sexson has batted over 40 points higher after the All Star break over his career. This year however, he has regressed quite a bit more than usual in the first half. His contact rate is an abysmal .673 (league average tends to be around .800) and his BABIP (.294) is a little lower than the league average (.300). Unlike Beltre and LaRoche who are still in their physical prime, Sexson is a nudge older. With inconsistent playing time due to his poor performance, I don’t expect a turnaround in the 2nd half. If you own him, I feel for you. If you don’t, I’d steer clear. He’s not a buy low candidate.
Well, good luck in your trade efforts, let’s peruse some box scores.
Matt Garza continues to dominate, striking out three over seven innings and allowing zero earned runs in a win over Boston. This guy’s talent seems to be matching his performances lately. On a winning team with a solid offense and good bullpen, I’d say he’s a fantastic bet going into the second half.
Another great young AL pitcher, Jon Danks continues to get the job done. He struck out eight Indians over eight innings in a no decision. If you jumped on the Danks bandwagon early, you’re glad you did. He’s got a 2.50 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP on the season. He’s not a great strikeout pitcher, but you can’t be disappointed in what was likely a free agent pick up in your league.
I can’t ignore Ian Kinsler’s three stolen base night Tuesday night. If you own his .324 batting average, 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases at 2B, you are obviously a very happy fantasy player.
I’ll gush a little now over Evan Longoria, who had an outstanding week last week. He’s now batting .268 on the season with 15 home runs and 47 RBI. A very simplistic projection, where we double up his numbers in the first half, lands him very close to 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Did I mention he’s got 5 stolen bases? He’s a fantastic keeper going forward.
The second catcher of the week will have to be the hot bat of Jason LaRue. He’s a little older at 34, but seems to be getting a fair amount of playing time lately and has been hitting for power; .375 with a home run and four RBI usually qualifies if I’m looking for a decent 2nd catcher. I’m usually looking for the hot bat, but especially one who’s good for a few long balls. From last week, Kelly Shoppach still makes for a great pick up while Victor Martinez is out.
Well that’s it for me, enjoy the sunshine.
