Geovany Soto is probably helping some smart fantasy manager to win a title this season.
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I guarantee you’ve read at least five Fantasy All Star lists by now. I actually enjoy reading these as it’s a good review of what’s happened so far this year, but its also a good time to explore trends. You’re not looking for why these guys are fantasy all stars, as their numbers speak for themselves. You’re looking for how to predict future fantasy all stars. As I’ve mentioned before in previous Grumbles, it’s an awesome feeling to predict a player’s break out year. Why? Usually a solid fantasy ‘break out’ can win you a championship. It’s that player you drafted later, that becomes a steady producer that people covet. This bust out candidate is also known in the pre-season as a sleeper. The best possible sleeper is the one that produces at such a rate that all of your league mates are jealous. In fits of rage they label you ‘just lucky’ and you hear things like ‘I was going to draft him, but you got to him just before I was going to pick him’ or ‘I didn’t have any body to drop for him’. When you start to hear these claims, you know you’re sitting on a legit bust out player. This year has produced many interesting ‘bust out’ players from each position. So without further ado, let’s launch into my first ‘Fantasy All – Star Bust Out Team’… a.k.a. The List of Talented Guys You Should Have Drafted And If You Did Your League Mates Are Now Completely Envious. This is not a conclusive list by any means…
C – Geovany Soto – His numbers from the catcher slot have to be winning somebody a championship out there. Current Stats: .289 15 HR 52 RBI
1B - Adrian Gonzalez – I’ve said this before, but this guy is putting up these numbers with PETCO park as his home stadium. You likely passed him over in the middle rounds. Regret it now? Current Stats: .284 22 HR 75 RBI
2B - Ian Kinsler – Kinsler was underrated in the pre-season. I know, how can he be ‘under-rated’ when he likely was taken in the top 75 players or so? However, did anybody figure he’d be by far, the next best 2nd baseman to Chase Utley? The speed numbers truly set him apart, but the batting average has been a huge bonus. Current Stats: .332 13 HR 23 SB with 79 runs scored!
3B – Ryan Braun - He’s not exactly a ‘bust out’ candidate in the truest sense as he produced at a very high level last year and was highly touted going into this year. Though I’m sure those who drafted Miguel Cabrera ahead of him are wishing they had that pick back. I’ll admit to being wary of Braun coming into the year. I was expecting a bit of a sophomore slump. Yeah, I was wrong. This is the kind of early second round pick that wins you a title. Current Stats: 281 21 HR 8 SB
SS – Stephen Drew - You all knew he was a top prospect! You all knew about the potential. Put your hand up if you forgot about him after his ‘average’ first year? His numbers aren’t as stellar as the rest on this list but please note he’s already matched his home run total from all of last year. Current Stats: .256 12 HR 31 RBI
OF – Josh Hamilton Current Stats: .309 19 HR 84 RBI
OF – Carlos Quentin Current Stats: .273 19 HR 61 RBI
OF – Jacob Ellsbury Current Stats: .268 5HR 35 SB
You likely could have had all of these outfielders on one team! Quentin probably went undrafted in many leagues, while Hamilton and Ellsbury were popular sleepers, but would have gone in the middle rounds of most drafts. If you’ve been reading my Grumble, you know that Quentin and Hamilton can do no wrong in my world. Quentin’s early buzz was that he wasn’t going to get playing time, and was still nursing a shoulder injury. Turns out he was healthy and quickly snagged the 3rd spot in the White Sox lineup, as well as the remaining starting OF job. Ellsbury’s speed numbers are what put him on my radar. You likely drafted Carl Crawford in an early round, and could have had similar numbers 5 rounds later.
SP Tim Lincecum Current Stats 10 W, 2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 122 K
SP Edison Volquez Current Stats 11 W, 2.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 116 K
SP Ervin Santana Current Stats 9 W, 3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 106 K
All three are formerly highly touted prospects and all three have come through in a big way this year. Lincecum was likely passed over in drafts because he was pitching for the worst team in baseball (pre-season). He’s reeled off 10 wins! Lincecum has truly come into his own, and is a legit fantasy ace. Volquez was the top prospect coming back to the Reds in the Hamilton deal. His 116 K’s on the season rank 3rd overall. He may have gone undrafted in your league. I bet you thought Ervin Santana could only pitch well at home. Sadly, I did too, but this season he has finally shown his full potential. Santana is exactly the reason why you can wait on pitching in shallower leagues.
CL Joakim Soria Current Stats 22 saves, 1.22 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 41 K
CL George Sherrill Current Stats 27 saves, 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 41 K
I won’t be the first to say closers always bust out. There are always a couple that come out of nowhere to save 30 or more games. That reliever this year is looking like Sherrill. He was the last closer taken in many leagues I was in, but his 27 saves are second in the league. Soria is simply at the top of his game. He strikes out more than a batter an inning and when he does get a save opportunity, he gets the job done (1 blown save on the year).
So, note some trends here. A lot of the players on this list were former top prospects that were given a second chance somewhere else (Quentin, Hamilton, Volquez). This seems to be a common factor in bust out seasons. Also, some top prospects are just plain ‘for real’ (Lincecum, Braun). Either way, it’s a combination of youth, talent and opportunity that have led to bust outs this year. This is a trend to pay attention to going forward.
Also, as I mentioned earlier, you’re still better off gambling with starting pitchers and closers later in drafts than by taking ‘sure things’ in the early rounds. The better value for starting pitching seems to be in the middle rounds or the waiver wire after the draft.
Ultimately, the better you understand the dynamics and past trends that lead to bust out performances the better prepared you’ll be for future drafts. Amongst all of the players I mentioned there are still a few others (Jon Danks, Matt Garza, Conor Jackson for example) who should be on this list as honourable mentions.
Let’s check out some of the news and boxscores from around the league.
Dustin McGowan left after the 4th inning on Tuesday with shoulder soreness. He will have an MRI shortly. Hopefully, this is just a pre-caution. He’s actually been one of the most unlucky pitchers in the league this year.
Nice outing from Justin Verlander allowing only two hits on Tuesday night in a win over the Indians. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last 6 starts.
Want more proof of good pitching after a draft? Look no further than Nick Blackburn who allowed two earned runs over six and 2/3 innings against the mighty Red Sox offense. He’s been a very effective pitcher who is likely long gone in most deeper leagues.
Bobby Jenks went on the disabled list Tuesday. If I were a betting man, which I’m not, I’d put my money on Octavio Dotel getting a save opportunity or two while he’s out. If not, Scott Linebrink who has next to no experience as a closer, will get the call.
The Rich Harden deal sent shockwaves through the National League Central division Tuesday. I really like what Billy Beane did here, as he was either going to lose Harden to an injury or free agency and managed to get some respectable talent in Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson as part of the deal. There was no way he was able to pull a deal off for the oft-injured Harden in this past off-season. If the Athletics plan on using Gallagher right away, he makes a decent speculative pick up in AL only leagues. Harden of course will be a monster moving to a better team, in the better pitcher’s league, with the caveat being ‘if he stays healthy’.
Aubrey Huff hit another home run Tuesday night. He’s actually one of the hottest hitters over the last week, hitting a robust .370 with four home runs and 10 RBI. He shouldn’t be available in even the shallower leagues, but makes for a nice pick up if he is.
Well, that’s all I’ve got for this week. Enjoy your weekend.
