Geovany Soto has been one of fantasy's more pleasant surprises this season.
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And the aces are wild.
Two of the biggest trade pieces have now been dealt before the All-Star Break with C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden now on to slightly greener fantasy pastures, Josh Hamilton’s power has returned just in time for the Home Run Derby, and all is right.
It’s been several years since I invested significantly in catchers, and this year I decided to dive in and ended up with none of the same. The three top names drafted, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann have hardly disappointed. But some of those second tier catchers have been the ones that have been make or break for owners at the position. A look first at three of the biggest disappointments (Note: I haven’t included Victor Martinez, for the fact that he is multiple position eligible, and that his bust status is obviously due to injury):
Kenji Johjima, Mariners: Just another black hole in Seattle’s season. Where do you find a bright spot in talking about Johjima’s 2008 campaign? His two steals? Not age or any statistic could have signaled any kind of decline for Johjima after his first two solid seasons in the Majors. Below the surface, he has sported an abnormally low BABIP, but with Jeff Clement called up again, who’s to say if he will get the opportunity to salvage any value for owners.
Jason Varitek, Red Sox: Look, no one expected the kind of .280/20/75 range of numbers the Varitek of five years ago would have posted this season. His owners even would have appreciated the stats that the Boston captain delivered last year, but it appears as if perhaps he has taken another dive south. Even worse, he has batted far below .200 since June 1, and his BB/K ratio has gotten worse as well. This could be the end of Varitek’s fantasy effectiveness.
Ramon Hernandez, Orioles: For a team that has been red hot as a surprise, Hernandez’s horrid start was a surprise in itself. I had the unfortunate displeasure of having him paired with Johjima, and like many owners, expected him to bounce back from his injury-plagued 2007 season. Unlike the aforementioned two, the Baltimore backstop looks to be bouncing back and showing life. Since June, Hernandez has sparked some offense and batted .274, and if owners haven’t picked up on that improvement, dare I say he might even be a buy-low candidate.
On the other hand, here’s a trio that have been music to fantasy owners’ ears:
Geovany Soto, Cubs: Ladies and gentlemen, the next star at the catcher position. Both he and J.R. Towles were anticipated to be significant contributors for N.L. owners, or to be No. 2 catchers in mixed leagues, but no one could have predicted Soto putting up Brian McCann-type numbers. With a few more RBIs, Soto owners would probably be pleased with these numbers for a whole season, but nothing has been ordinary about Soto. The 2007 Pacific Coast League MVP has hit a blistering .347 against lefties, and there’s no reason that he can’t finish with 30 HRs on the season.
Dioner Navarro, Rays: For all of the pleasant surprises in Tampa Bay this year, perhaps Navarro’s story has been the quietest. It’s easy to look at splits as an indicator of what’s to come, but they were revealing for Navarro; he hit .285 with a significantly higher slugging percentage in the second half last season, and has parlayed that appropriately into a breakout year. There’s no reason to believe Navarro, currently hitting at a .312 clip, can’t stay above the .300 mark for the rest of the season and continue to be a low-end No. 1 catcher.
Chris Iannetta, Rockies: Oh Chris, how quick we were to dismiss you. Iannetta slid off fantasy radars and nearly the face of the earth after failing to live up to Rookie of the Year expectations in 2007, and things didn’t look encouraging after Colorado re-signed Yorvit Torrealba to compete for the starting job this year. Credit improved plate discipline along with an ability to hit even when he has behind in the count to part of his 2008 resume, along with his addition as a member of the NL’s All-Star squad. Again, perhaps the end of last season was foretelling; Iannetta hit .320 over the last two months of the 2007 season.
These last three should help replace the number of declining older catchers in the league and continue to provide some solid options at catcher over the next handful of years. That being said, a few notes from Thursday’s games…
Anyone who owned Ryan Howard last year should be familiar with the trend that has continued this year. Howard has been crushing the ball in July, and despite a powerful start that lacked average, this is Howard’s track record.
Howard Pre-All Star 2006: .278 AVG, 28 HR, 71 RBI
Howard Post-All Star 2006: .355 AVG, 30 HR, 78 RBI
Howard Pre-All Star 2007: .256 AVG, 21 HR, 67 RBI
Howard Post-All Star 2007: .280 AVG, 26 HR, 69 RBI
The Philly slugger continued his torrid start to the month with two more shots off Braden Looper yesterday to give him a total of seven already this month. Seeing Howard reach a .260 or .270 average to compliment his usual 50 home runs at season’s end is probably reasonable.
The good news has come with the bad for Toronto’s outfield so far this month. The Blue Jays announced that Vernon Wells will miss 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 strain of his hamstring during an attempted steal Wednesday, securing Wells as a bust pick of 2008 and leaving Toronto even further depleted of power in their lineup. As for the good news, Adam Lind has shown much more life in his recall from the minors this time around. After nearly going hitless his first time around, his second trip has yielded a .260 average with 3 HR and 12 RBIs already. Lind might not drive in a whole lot of runs in that lineup, but close to 15 more home runs to go with a .270 average shouldn’t be out of the question as a low No. 3 or No. 4 outfielder in AL-only leagues.
Appropriately, I thought I should close off today’s Grumble mentioning Justin Morneau, who closed out the Tigers and the previously-successful Freddy Dolsi in the eleventh inning of Thursday afternoon’s contest with a solo shot to right field. It also included Todd Jones second blown save of the season, ballooning his ERA up to 5.09. Morneau was experiencing a power outage prior to a home run in Wednesday’s game, but has stayed consistent hitting the ball and driving in runs. His 5-for-5 performance, which nearly included a second dinger, raised his average to .324 on the year. As someone who landed Morneau in an auction league, even I wasn’t a believer in his average rebounding, but it’s possible that staying above .300 with 30 and 110 is in sight after all.
I’ll be back with Extra Innings for a short All-Star week upcoming, but everyone else enjoy the break.