Justin Duchscherer has to be one of fantasy's biggest surprises this season.
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I’m a fantasy “expert”. Do you know how I know this? I know this because I’m writing this column. And, by writing this column, every word I convey to you immediately becomes scripture. As though ordained by God himself, I have been endowed with an omniscient understanding of the universal complexities of fantasy sports that fall outside the boundaries of mere mortal comprehension. My body is a vessel through which knowledge of any and all pertinent fantasy information relevant to this or any other season shall pass. And it is only through my benevolence that I convey this information to you. This is true, because I have deemed it so.
Think on that for just a moment while I wallow in my own self-congratulatory crapulence. To help pass the time, feel free to bask in the effervescent glow of my ever-present, shining light…
…and now, back to Earth.
Every season a number of players have what some refer to as “break-out” seasons. Some are able to harness unrealized potential. Others are able to overcome injuries and resurrect a seemingly stalled career. Others still seem to sneak up on us like a shadow in the night, unaware of their own irrelevance. And, some of them, believe it or not, surprise even the most divine fantasy zealots. This year is no exception. Here’s a look at the most surprising inclusions in the 2008 MLB All-Star Game:
Mild Surprises:
Kerry Wood – RP – Chicago Cubs: There was never any doubt about the quality of his pitching. The health of his arm (see: his role in Broke-arm Mountain) was an altogether different question. He’s been the classic risk/reward-type closer. Risk…rewarded.
Joakim Soria – RP – Kansas City Royals: Surprising to some, but those 20 or 30 select Royals viewers that watched in 2007 saw positives, especially when his walk rate decreased in the second half. His All-Star invite represents the actualization of “The Mexicutioner’s” potential.
George Sherrill – RP – Baltimore Orioles: See the closer theme? Straight from the book of someone had to close in Baltimore, Sherrill earned the job during Spring Training and hasn’t looked back. But, how has he managed to rack up so many saves on a bad team? Answer: cheap saves can always be had, even on bad teams.
Joe Crede – 3B – Chicago White Sox: How big of a surprise is Crede? After all, he’s just two years removed from a 30HR, 94RBI season. Still, he’s also a year removed from a broken back. In addition, Crede was supposed to have lost his starting job; then was rumored to be traded. Neither of those things materialized. All-Star.
Milton Bradley – OF/DH – Texas Rangers: All-Injured/Suspended? Sure. But, All-Star? Bradley’s glaring flaws have always overshadowed his numbers. This is a guy who managed to end 2007 via injury while arguing with an umpire. His speed and athleticism have waned, but he’s 2 off his career high for home runs.
J.D. Drew –OF – Boston Red Sox: A career poster child for injury risk/reward. In fact, on the DL short-bus, J.D. Drew is the driver. He’s been relatively healthy (unlike Big Papi), but he’s always had better luck in the first half. Just saying…
Surprises:
Carlos Quentin – OF – Chicago White Sox: He was a great prospect a decade ago. Two years? Really? A strong spring and an injury to Jerry Owens opened the door for him to start the season as Chicago’s starting LF. Not only has he made everyone in Chicago forget about Jerry Owens, he’s made everyone forget about Carlos Lee.
Justin Duchscherer – SP – Oakland A’s: He always had a live arm, but he'd never been a starter, and he started the year injured. Yet, by most measurements, “The Duke” has been the most valuable pitcher in the fantasy game. No one’s helped more with WHIP(0.86) or ERA(1.78), and those numbers are not typos.
Aaron Cook – SP – Colorado Rockies: A full-time starter for just three years, little suggested that Cook would be All-Star bound in ’08., his brief 2007 second-half showing notwithstanding. He’s been useful with wins (ONE stat). But, it is a category in all of our leagues, so…
Brian Wilson – RP – San Francisco Giants: Another so-so closer putting up big save numbers for a sub-.500 team. The Giants were supposed to be historically bad, with Wilson perhaps closing all 20 of their expected wins. Well, he’s already passed that mark, albeit with a mediocre ERA and WHIP, but saves are saves, right?
Nate McLouth – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates - McWho? Do you know how much McMoney you could have McWon if you'd bet on him making the mid-summer classic? You know by now that his McNumbers have been McStellar. Even after a June McSwoon brought him back down to McEarth, this first-half surprise to all is on pace for a 30/20 season.
Major Surprises
Edinson Volquez – SP – Cincinnati Reds: Volquez doesn’t fall into the “major surprise” category for lack of talent. His inclusion has more to do with Johnny Cueto being the greatest rookie pitcher in the history of...wait, who's that guy? What is perhaps most surprising is Volquez’s success despite his 4+ BB/9IP.
Cliff Lee – SP – Cleveland Indians: In 2007 he sported a 6+ERA and was demoted to AAA to maybe save his career. Barely drafted\ in even in AL only leagues, Lee’s now 12-2 with astronomical peripherals, and may be the AL All-Star starter. THAT qualifies as a surprise.
Ryan Dempster – SP – Chicago Cubs: The re-conversion from mediocre closer to rotation was not going to go smoothly—then Ryan Dempster happened. It’s not so surprising that he could transition from closer to starter, but dominant starter? Even the most optimistic prognosticators foresaw little more than an innings-eater-type arm.
Joe Saunders –SP – Los Angeles Angels: With nothing special about his game, there’s been something special about this Saunders’ first half. Without dominating hitters (less that 5K/9), he’s has managed to ride a wave of effectiveness to 12 first-half wins.
Ryan Ludwick – OF – St. Louis Cardinals: Ludwig’s power is real; his minor league numbers back it up. Ten years from now, we may still be surprised that this 29 year old journeyman was suddenly a 2008 All-Star. He’s been that kind of revelation.
Cristian Guzman – SS – Washington Nationals: I think I actually got points for Guzman in a Dead Pool back in 2006, and his injury-plagued 2007 did nothing to regain our collective confidence. On pace for more than 200 hits, he’s perhaps the biggest first-half surprise of the year.
Dishonorable Mention:
Jason Varitek – C – Boston Red Sox: Statistically (.220AVG and 7HR), there isn’t a more surprising All-Star. At first glance one might assume that his inclusion was the result of the ever-present faulty fan vote. Au, contraire—the real surprise here (?) is that the players are just as stupid as the fans… if not more so.
Looking toward the All-Star week ahead, now is a good time to really take stock in all the teams in your league(s), especially your own. The All-Star break is no time for you to be taking a break too. In fact, with little else going on in the way of fantasy baseball, NOW is the time to be reaching out to the managers in your various leagues in an effort to better your team via trade. Remember, fortune favors the fortunate, but many suggest it also favors the bold. So, be bold, and the fortune of the fantasy gods will shine down upon you.
