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Top Ten NFL Fantasy Suprises of the Season (so far)
Tim McCullough
Tim McCullough is the Managing Editor of Sports Grumblings, and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). He has more than 10 years of experience playing and writing about fantasy baseball and football. If you need advice on your fantasy teams, would like to ask a question, or offer comments or suggestions, he can be reached anytime at TimM@sportsgrumblings.com 

Top Ten NFL Fantasy Suprises of the Season (so far)
By Tim McCullough | Published  10/26/2007
 
Adrian Peterson has outperformed expectations thus far in the season.

There is still a lot of football to play this season, so it’s a little early to draw any conclusions from what has happened so far.  But, since most fantasy football leagues use the last two or three weeks for playoffs and finals, we are, for all intents and purposes, halfway through the fantasy football season.  That said, there have been a number of surprises this season.  Some of  which could cause a shift in thinking with regard to draft strategy next season.   In no particular order, the top ten fantasy football surprises (so far):

Quarterbacks – Any tout will tell you that it’s your running backs and wide receivers that end up scoring the most points, and that you should wait until at least the third round of your draft to pick up any quarterback not named Peyton.  Well, this season is turning that notion on its head because there are no less than eleven quarterbacks among the top thirty scorers in fantasy points thus far.  More surprising, is that there are only eight wide receivers in the top thirty, and only three running backs among the top ten.  If you were to draft based on this information you'd have to consider taking a quarterback in the first or second round at the latest.

Derek Anderson – I’m not sure what’s more amazing.  The fact that Anderson has three more TD passes than Peyton Manning or that this Cleveland Browns quarterback, barely an afterthought in most drafts, has the team thinking playoffs.  Not bad for a guy who lost out to Charlie Frye at the beginning of the season and is probably just marking time for the beginning of the Brady Quinn era in the home of the Dawg Pound.

Frank Gore – The 49er offense has been fairly horrible.  While the quarterback position is mostly to blame for this, Gore also has to be considered culpable.  He had a breakout year last season, and was considered to be top five running back material based on his performance.  Gore has just three touchdowns this season, two of which came in Week 2 against St. Louis.  Things may improve for Gore if he can get completely healthy.   Down the line the 49ers have a fairly easy schedule and the team doesn’t really have any choice but to hope Gore can turn things around.

Injuries Galore – I may be wrong, but it sure seems to me that there have been a lot more injuries this season than in others past.  The list of players missing time is extremely long already, and it’s not just the fantasy studs either.  Some teams, like the Rams, Buccaneers, and Dolphins are so beset with injuries that they are having difficulty fielding a complete team.  Miami is still fishing around for healthy players with valid passports in a scramble to put together enough players to play in London Sunday.

Kicking Crazies – On two occasions this season, kickers put up numbers usually reserved for fantasy studs.  In Week 5, Kris Brown nailed five field goals, including two from beyond 50 yards.  Rob Bironas of the Tennessee Titans kicked eight field goals in one game back in Week 6.  Performances like these meant the difference between winning and losing in every league I play in.  I'd never seen that happen in ten years of fantasy football.  It's happened twice already this season.  To put that in perspective, there are five teams that haven't made eight field goals yet this season.

Tom Brady and Randy Moss – Last season, Tom Brady had a patchwork receiver corps that took nearly ten weeks to gel and become a true offensive threat.  For the last two years, Randy Moss hasn't had a quarterback who could consistently deliver the ball to him.  At this point, Brady to Moss is a marriage made in fantasy heaven, as they are the top scoring duo in the NFL.  Nobody else is even close.  Everybody knew this pairing had potential, but nobody predicted this kind of production.

Indefensible Bears – In one league I play in the Bear's defense/special teams were taken with the ninth pick in the sixth round.  True, the Bears have had an elite defense the last few years, and were rated highly this year. They have not lived up to their reputation and have played pretty poorly.  In fact, only five other teams have given up more points than the Bears this season.  The Chiefs, Seahawks, Giants, and Redskins D/STs, among others, all have more fantasy points than the Bears D/ST.  Wonder how my league mate is feeling about that pick now?

Donovan McNabb – Back in 2004, Donovan McNabb was fantasy gold.  The next two seasons started off with great promise and were both cut short by injury. The Philly faithful hoped that this was the year McNabb put it all together and led the Eagles back to the Super Bowl.  Same for fantasy managers.  But alas, McNabb has completed less than 60 percent of his passes, has just seven touchdowns thus far, and overall is just average.  The schedule the rest of the way doesn't look promising for McNabb either as he will face tough defensive teams in six of the last ten games.  He could easily finish out of the top ten quarterbacks. Disappointing for a player who was once among the elite quarterbacks in fantasy and the NFL.

Shanahan's Shenanigans  - Actually it's a lack of shenanigans this year.  For as long as I can remember, Mike Shanahan has toyed with fantasy football managers by changing his starting running back week after week.  He has broken with tradition this year by sticking with one back, Travis Henry, week in and week out. He hasn't even hinted at making a change. The question is,  how much longer can it last?  Henry faces a possible suspension for violating drug policy and he's been banged up the last couple of weeks.  How long will it be before Selvin Young gets the nod?  Or maybe Andre Hall?   

Adrian Peterson – With Ronnie Brown out of the picture, there is now only one running back, LaDanian Tomlinson, ahead of Adrian Peterson in terms of  overall fantasy value.  While many touts expected big things, nobody predicted the impact this rookie would have so quickly.  Peterson should easily finish among the top five running backs with the schedule that the Vikings have ahead.  If he stays healthy, he could even challenge Tomlinson for the number one spot.

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