
Adrian Peterson has outperformed expectations thus far in the season.
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There is still a lot of football to play this
season, so it’s a little early to draw any conclusions from what has happened
so far. But, since most fantasy
football leagues use the last two or three weeks for playoffs and finals, we
are, for all intents and purposes, halfway through the fantasy football
season. That said, there have been a
number of surprises this season. Some
of which could cause a shift in
thinking with regard to draft strategy next season. In no particular order, the top ten fantasy football surprises
(so far):
Quarterbacks – Any tout will tell you that it’s your running backs and
wide receivers that end up scoring the most points, and that you should wait
until at least the third round of your draft to pick up any quarterback not
named Peyton. Well, this season is
turning that notion on its head because there are no less than eleven
quarterbacks among the top thirty scorers in fantasy points thus far. More surprising, is that there are only
eight wide receivers in the top thirty, and only three running backs among the
top ten. If you were to draft based on
this information you'd have to consider taking a quarterback in the first or
second round at the latest.
Derek Anderson – I’m not sure what’s more amazing. The fact that Anderson has three more TD
passes than Peyton Manning or that this Cleveland Browns quarterback, barely an
afterthought in most drafts, has the team thinking playoffs. Not bad for a guy who lost out to Charlie
Frye at the beginning of the season and is probably just marking time for the
beginning of the Brady Quinn era in the home of the Dawg Pound.
Frank Gore – The 49er offense has been fairly horrible. While the quarterback position is mostly to
blame for this, Gore also has to be considered culpable. He had a breakout year last season, and was
considered to be top five running back material based on his performance. Gore has just three touchdowns this season,
two of which came in Week 2 against St. Louis.
Things may improve for Gore if he can get completely healthy. Down the line the 49ers have a fairly easy
schedule and the team doesn’t really have any choice but to hope Gore can turn
things around.
Injuries Galore – I may be wrong, but it sure seems to me that there have
been a lot more injuries this season than in others past. The list of players missing time is
extremely long already, and it’s not just the fantasy studs either. Some teams, like the Rams, Buccaneers, and
Dolphins are so beset with injuries that they are having difficulty fielding a
complete team. Miami is still fishing
around for healthy players with valid passports in a scramble to put together
enough players to play in London Sunday.
Kicking Crazies – On two occasions this season, kickers put up numbers
usually reserved for fantasy studs. In
Week 5, Kris Brown nailed five field goals, including two from beyond 50
yards. Rob Bironas of the Tennessee
Titans kicked eight field goals in one game back in Week 6. Performances like these meant the
difference between winning and losing in every league I play in. I'd never seen that happen in ten years of
fantasy football. It's happened twice
already this season. To put that in
perspective, there are five teams that haven't made eight field goals yet this
season.
Tom Brady and
Randy Moss – Last season, Tom Brady
had a patchwork receiver corps that took nearly ten weeks to gel and become a
true offensive threat. For the last two
years, Randy Moss hasn't had a quarterback who could consistently deliver the
ball to him. At this point, Brady to
Moss is a marriage made in fantasy heaven, as they are the top scoring duo in
the NFL. Nobody else is even
close. Everybody knew this pairing had
potential, but nobody predicted this kind of production.
Indefensible
Bears – In one league I play in the
Bear's defense/special teams were taken with the ninth pick in the sixth round. True,
the Bears have had an elite defense the last few years, and were rated highly
this year. They have not lived up to their reputation and have played pretty
poorly. In fact, only five other teams
have given up more points than the Bears this season. The Chiefs, Seahawks, Giants, and Redskins D/STs, among others,
all have more fantasy points than the Bears D/ST. Wonder how my league mate is feeling about that pick now?
Donovan McNabb – Back in 2004, Donovan McNabb was fantasy gold. The next two seasons started off with great
promise and were both cut short by injury. The Philly faithful hoped that this
was the year McNabb put it all together and led the Eagles back to the Super
Bowl. Same for fantasy managers. But alas, McNabb has completed less than 60
percent of his passes, has just seven touchdowns thus far, and overall is just
average. The schedule the rest of the
way doesn't look promising for McNabb either as he will face tough defensive
teams in six of the last ten games. He
could easily finish out of the top ten quarterbacks. Disappointing for a player
who was once among the elite quarterbacks in fantasy and the NFL.
Shanahan's
Shenanigans - Actually it's a lack of shenanigans this
year. For as long as I can remember,
Mike Shanahan has toyed with fantasy football managers by changing his starting
running back week after week. He has
broken with tradition this year by sticking with one back, Travis Henry, week
in and week out. He hasn't even hinted at making a change. The question
is, how much longer can it last? Henry faces a possible suspension for
violating drug policy and he's been banged up the last couple of weeks. How long will it be before Selvin Young gets
the nod? Or maybe Andre Hall?
Adrian Peterson – With Ronnie Brown out of the picture, there is now only
one running back, LaDanian Tomlinson, ahead of Adrian Peterson in terms of overall fantasy value. While many touts expected big things, nobody
predicted the impact this rookie would have so quickly. Peterson should easily finish among the top
five running backs with the schedule that the Vikings have ahead. If he stays healthy, he could even challenge
Tomlinson for the number one spot.