Ryan Zimmerman probably has more value as a keeper for next season, and probably won't provide much power this year.
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Let’s get one thing straight—fantasy injuries hurt, and not the way falling off your Huffy and skinning your knee hurt. Injuries hurt the way your Dad going out for cigarettes and not coming back hurts, only worse. At least when your Dad leaves, you get to act up during 7th grade English and people will sympathize. Not here…not in fantasy. While everyone understands, no one cares, especially not your league mates. They’ve all been there too; so don’t expect any of them to feel sorry for you.
Every year without fail, championships are decided by a significant injury, or some confluence of numerous injuries. One injury can prove difficult, but many? It may seem like 2008 has been particularly unkind to the fantasy-crowd, and it’s not just a matter of perception. Players have been hitting the DL in record numbers, and nothing yet has indicated that the pace is going to slow.
Often, hopes are dashed when a player of great significance goes down with an injury. What’s worse is that it’s often more than one player, and it’s dire straights from there forward. You beseech the fantasy gods to answer one question, “WHY ME?!?!?!” Yet, no answer comes. This leaves one with an empty feeling where a soul used to be. So, we lash out, dropping the worst of the injured so-and-so’s we can manage to rid ourselves of, in the hopes of finding an answer, ANY answer that might alleviate us of some of our emptiness.
What else can be done to fill this empty void? No, not beer—though beer has proven quite effective in substituting for a father’s love, or injured fantasy ace. Rather, what active steps can one take in the hopes of improving one’s place in the standings in fantasy baseball’s second half (mind you, we’re well past the literal half-way point). Let’s take a look at some of the more high-impact injuries around baseball and what they might mean going forward. I’m no doctor, mind you. But, I’ve fallen off enough bikes and skinned enough knees to know which “owies” Mommy can kiss away, and which ones are likely to linger, maybe even requiring family therapy (thanks, Dad).
With DL players, some of you may have already jumped ship; especially if some (any) real trade value presented itself. The more resolute of heart elected to stay the course, hoping that their investment would turn around as health returned. For those of you who were indeed patient enough to wait it out, or even obtain an injured player, there is reason for optimism on the horizon. Soon enough, a number of significant players should be returning from what seem to be lengthy sojourns.
Optimistic:
David Ortiz – DH – Boston Red Sox: Sure, he’s only a designated hitter, but he also has more RBI the past 5 years than any player in baseball. Healthy and productive or not, rest assured, he will make a difference to his owners. If he returns to form, he’ll obviously reward owners for their patience. Should his wrist not hold up and he finds himself struggling, his numbers will be sorely missed, much as they have been. Everyone should take note that he has three home runs in three minor league rehab starts, so act accordingly.
Alfonso Soriano – OF – Chicago Cubs: Earlier in the year it was a series of leg injuries that seemed to zap Soriano of his speed. Then, most recently, it was the hand fracture that has sidelined him to the tune of a collective groan, and some cursing. Well, the former 40/40 man is this close to getting back on the field for the front-running Chicago Cubs and, in turn, for your fantasy team. For those of you who acquired Soriano via draft or trade, your patience is about to pay off. Be aware that Soriano may refrain from running so as not to aggravate his lingering leg problems. Power? Yes. Speed? TBD.
Aaron Harang – SP – Cincinnati Reds: Going into the year Harang was one of those undervalued pitchers who was somewhat overlooked because of his team. He was on every one of my draft lists, regardless of league scoring system. And, for the most part, he rewarded his supporters with being a “steal” on draft day. Then the season happened. Through April he’d spit in the face of his non-ace reputation by posting solid ERA, WHIP and K numbers, but seemed to take a nosedive thereafter. Now injured, we have some idea why. Not being in the race, it seems unlikely that the Reds will push him to get back early, so when he does take the mound, you should feel confident in starting him.
Pessimistic:
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B – Washington Nationals: Zimmerman had a strong second-half in 2007, giving many optimism for 2008. Well, he got off to a slow start and then went down with an injured shoulder. He's been taking BP cuts in the hopes of returning in late July (i.e. soon). NOTE: I just traded him for good value in a 12-team keeper league to an owner that was looking to rebuild for next year. Realistically, I think that is where his value lies, as the shoulder injury could still zap Zimmerman of his power in 2008.
Erik Bedard – SP – Seattle Mariners: Bedard hasn’t pitched as badly as his critics assume (5-4, 3.79 ERA, 66 Ks in 76 IP). However, he’s been injured here, ineffective there, with no reasonable timetable for his full recovery, making even spot starts difficult. His first-half/second-half splits over the past two seasons suggest he’s due for a turn-around, but in this lackluster season, I wouldn’t count on it. Also, a much ballyhooed, albeit unlikely topic of numerous trade discussions, Bedard could be traded to a contender, thereby helping his fantasy value, but don’t count on it. He’s looked either uninspired or simply hurt much pf the year, dramatically suppressing teams’ interest in his services. You too will find few takers for Bedard’s services and will likely have to ride out this Tunnel of Terror season with everyone else. Sorry.
Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Colorado Rockies: A number of my fellow “experts” have written repeatedly that Tulo is far too talented for his 2008 woes continue. I wholeheartedly disagree. While the Rockies still have an outside shot at being competitive in the abysmal National League West, their real focus is toward the future. While the issues underlying his early-season injuries seem to have subsided, the Rockies aren’t going to push the issue. Don’t be surprised if Tulowitzki is held out of the occasional game (or more) through August, diminishing his fantasy viability. I, for one am not buying.
Hell no-istic:
Victor Martinez – C – Cleveland Indians: If patience is a virtue, and V-Mart is still on your roster, you’re a saint. Even the most optimistic owners cut bait with Martinez long ago. His lack of any power whatsoever caused many to panic, and a serious injury was all the nudge most needed to sever ties with the highest-drafted (on average) catcher in the fantasy game. If you’re waiting for a quick turn-around from the former fantasy stud, you haven’t been paying attention. The Indians are already looking toward next year, and Martinez figures into those plans rather strongly. They’re not about to jeopardize any future success to “prove something”.
Hideki Matsui – OF – New York Yankees: His injured knee has shelved Matsui, and things aren’t looking too optimistic, even with Yankee blinders on. While some are holding on to hope, realists should be aware that Matsui’s season is in jeopardy. He’s consulting with specialists trying to avoid surgery, but even if he’s successful, don’t look for a lot of production out of the hobbled outfielder. Already relegated to DH when [gulp] healthy, it’s probably time to relegate him all the way to the waiver wire, if you haven’t already done so.
Rafael Furcal – SS – Los Angeles Dodgers: He’s toyed with his fantasy owners long enough…long enough that I don’t own him in any leagues. First he was going to be out a few weeks. Then, it was the All-Star break. Now, it’s the end of August? Seriously? Yah? Well, I’m not waiting around to find out how much the Dodgers are stretching the truth again.
