Adam Lind is probably under valued right now and is someone keeper leaguers should target for acquisition, as his breakout could come within the next season or two.
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Keeper leagues are always a fun format as they keep some of the bottom teams interested and involved. This is especially true at this time of year when teams start to trade star players for top prospects in hopes of competing for next year. A lot of teams fail to do anything, and I think that is the biggest mistake you could make. Get something done if you’re not going to win, as some of the players on your current roster are useless to you next year.
It is getting close to most leagues’ trade deadlines and if you’re in a keeper league this is the time to swim or cut bait. It’s extremely difficult with 2 full months of games left to forecast for the 2009 season but it never hurts to be prepared, given some current trends. Right now I’d like to look at some players, who given some regular at bats next year and based on what they’re doing with their time this year, should produce. There are some obvious names out there but I’d like to highlight some players over the next two weeks that keeper league players may trade for right now. This means, I think they may be slightly undervalued now thus coming at a slightly lower trade cost. I’m mainly going to look at hitters, as they generally make for better long-term bets in keeper leagues, health wise.
If you’ve been reading my Grumbles over the past few weeks its hard to avoid my fondness for Adam Lind as a fantasy player. He’s hit at all levels and has a great batting eye and patience, which has translated into a solid on base percentage. He profiles to be on the verge of a break out power season sometime in the next few years as well. He could develop into a perennial .300 hitting, 30 home runs and 100 RBI type player. He’s not getting a ton of respect in shallower mixed leagues, which makes him a great lower end trade target for keeper leaguers.
Current Stats: .311 BA, 5 HR , 22 RBI in 119 at bats.
Projected over full season: .311 BA, 23HR, 101 RBI
Why he’s overlooked: Smaller market team and early season flop at the MLB level.
Opportunity knocks for Steven Pearce of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The trade of Xavier Nady to the Yankees has opened up at bats for another player who has hit well in the minors over his career. His burgeoning power is evident (26 HR at age 23 at Single A, 31 HR at age 24 in Triple A) and because he plays for the lowly Pirates his name will not be on everyone’s radar. He’s 25 this season and had already hit 11 HR before getting called up. He’s not exactly young for a prospect, but he’s being brought up right before he hits his prime, and ultimately that’s what’s important here. Bid accordingly.
Current Stats: .286, 0 HR, 0 RBI in 7 at bats
Projected over full season: .275, 28 HR, 90 RBI
Why he’s overlooked: Small market team and ‘old’ for a prospect at 25.
Billy Butler is a player I think will do really well long-term. He’s been up and down from the minors to the majors, which has dwindled his value. He’s still only 22 years old, which leaves him 5 years away from his ‘prime’. Butler is a proven minor league hitter who hit for big average (.325+) and had good power numbers. Most knowledgeable keeper league players are not bailing on Butler, especially with his recent power surge. Though, a respectable offer to an owner based on a teams needs may net you a future .320 + hitter with 30 + home run power.
Current Stats: .257 6 HR 33 RBI in 268 at bats
Projected over full season: .290, 20 HR, 85 RBI
Why he’s overlooked: Small market team, has been sent down already this year and low current MLB Batting average.
Compared to those I’ve already mentioned, Carlos Gonzalez is the only player who is known more for his all around athleticism. Thus, he’s really the only 20-20 threat I’ve mentioned so far. One nice thing about 20-20 threats is they are a rare breed and are generally under appreciated in fantasy leagues. People tend to flock to the power threat prospects first. Additionally, Gonzalez has made good contact throughout his young career. I’ve heard comparisons to Garrett Anderson and Alex Rios. Either way, you’re looking at a player who should post some respectable speed numbers, with good power and a .280+ batting average. Because of the potential, and because he plays in relative obscurity out in Oakland, he’s being over looked in some leagues. He’s only 22 so he makes for a great investment now, with a big pay off down the road.
Current Stats: .275, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB, in 178 at bats.
Projected over full season: .275, 15 HR, 80 RBI, and 15 SB
Why he’s overlooked: Small market team and is a multi-tooled prospect.
About my projections, it’s not an exact science, but I tried to be reasonable given a full season of at bats and a players age. Obviously Butler and Gonzalez may take longer to develop, as they are only 22 years old. Lind and Pearce have major league-ready skills.
You’ll notice a bit of a trend here. I’ve tried to highlight players that have been called up a few times already so a lot of the ‘hype’ that surrounds the player initially is gone. Next week I’ll highlight a few others including Ian Stewart and Josh Fields. Don’t wait on me though; get out and start offering trades for these guys. I’ll try and look at a couple of pitchers next time as well.
As we step through some box scores…
I’ll tell you what, pick a name out of a hat when it comes to young talented first basemen this past week. With Conor Jackson again leading the way with a .500 batting average over the last week and two home runs. Close behind him are two young 22-year-old, top-flight prospects, one of whom I’ve already talked about. Billy Butler has a .350 line with 2 home runs, while the Rangers’ new 1st sacker, Chris Davis, has batted .357 with two home runs. Butler seems to be finally realizing some of the aforementioned potential, but Davis might end up being the free agent pick up of the year. His 10 HR and .291 batting average are likely leading some teams to championships out there.
The Rays continue to get strong pitching from Matt Garza, who checked in with an outstanding effort in a complete game shut out of the Jays Tuesday night. He struck out 5 while only walking 1 in the game.
Hank Blalock continues to struggle with injuries as he was placed on the DL again with a new injury. The shoulder seems to be the issue now. Although he was a popular pre-season sleeper, he’s relegated himself to ‘deep’ sleeper for 2009.
Adam LaRoche heads to the DL as well with what they are calling a strained rib muscle. Too bad, as he was having a gigantic second half.
I can’t finish off without mentioning the titanic Mark Teixeira for Casey Kotchman trade. A fantastic move for the Angels, as they get a much needed middle of the order power bat. Atlanta manages to get a great young and improving hitter in a good deal for both teams in my opinion. AL only fantasy leaguers should be blowing the FAAB bank on this one without question. You will get no better a player coming over from the NL. NL only leaguers should likely do the same for Kotchman. You’re not going to get too many quality players coming over at the trade deadline, so he is one to spend the bucks on or to use that waiver claim you’ve been hoarding.
Well that’s all for me this week, have a great weekend. Long weekend for us Canadians!
