Carlos Lee is probably done for the season, and he is likely taking several fantasy championships with him.

First Place: A Cautionary Tale

Have a good draft.  Check. 

Make key pickups.  Check.

A few key trades.  Check-a-roo.

Play your opponents well, make all the right roster moves, and maybe even stream the occasional pitcher.  Check, check, and check again.

So there you are with basically the perfect team, having to do little more than rotate in your daily starters.  Once in a while, you even forget to do that.  No matter, your offense is still probably going to carry you to a 7-3 head to head victory even with two starters in your lineup being day-to-day with the flu.  That 22 game lead you have with three weeks to play before the playoffs start is as safe as safe could be.  Your team is impervious to even the strongest challenger.  Nothing can stand between you and championship gold.  Why else would you have re-painted the mantle?  That’s right, your league’s championship trophy is going right there—you’re mother-in-law’s remains can go over by the lamp.  Everything is going precisely according  to…wait…

What happened to Carlos Lee?  He broke what?!?!?  Okay…okay…breathe.  You’re fine; you have Carl Crawford on your bench for just this reason.  Sure, Crawford hasn’t exactly been his old self this year, but man, the law of averages says he’s due for a hot streak.  Look at his numbers over the past few years—he’s always one of the league’s top second-half performers.  Plus, if there was one weakness on your team, it was a lack of speed, and Crawford certainly has that in spades.  Actually, on second look, Crawford hasn’t been running as much this year.  Still, 25 steals…that’s still pretty good.  The guy was a consensus first round pick.  Guys like that aren’t a dime a dozen, and you were shrewd enough to hang on to him even in a “down” year.  So there you go.

What’s this?  Notes on Crawford?  It’s probably just talking about how big a second-half stud he is and that he this close to turning on that fifth gear he seems to…“right middle finger”…“possible season-ending surgery”…WHAT?!?!  Here’s a middle finger for ya, you overrated mother…[phew].  Okay that’s going to hurt a little.

Maybe you should have been paying a little more attention to your front-running ball club, even with that enormous lead.  Sure, having that number one seed going into the playoffs can be a nice confidence builder, but it can also lead you astray with the belief that you and your glorious team can simply do no wrong.  While winning percentage is certainly a testament to your managerial prowess, and having that first by-week does allow you to take some last-minute stock in your season-long investment prior to heading back into battle, if you’re waiting until that anticipated free time arrives to fortify your soldiers, you’re likely due for something akin to Custer’s last stand.  If you’re serious about making that championship push, you’ll want to be a bit more diligent about the care and maintenance of your (thus far) first place team.

You see, injuries are the great fantasy equalizer—just ask anyone who drafted Victor Martinez or David Ortiz; they can literally change the very make up of your team, leaving you scrambling in all directions, looking for help—any help.  Had this fate befallen you earlier in the year, you could have hitched your wagon to someone like Ryan Ludwig or Carlos Quentin and you’d have been no worse for wear.  Alas, those days are long gone.

As we enter the dog days of summer, the vast majority of players have found their level, so to speak.  That is to say that by this point in the year, even “surprise” players are no longer, well, surprising (see: Ludwig).  This is not to suggest that a given player will continue the same level of success for the remainder of their career.  Sometimes, a player just has everything come together for him in a perfect storm of a season, and it happens more than you might imagine (think: Roger Maris in 1961 or Brady Anderson in 1996).  Players like that are long gone in August and September.  So where can someone expect to find some injury replacement value so late in the season?

Randy Winn – OF – Giants: Winn isn’t going to bring colossal power (6 HR) or blazing speed (22SB), although he will run into a ball every now and again, and those 22 steals are more than Johnny Damon or Carlos Beltran, among others. He’s been overlooked most of the year, partly because the expectations in San Francisco were so low.  Well, the Giants have played at least a little better than expected, and Winn is one of the reasons why.  Even more appealing, he’s hitting over .350 since the All Star break, and better than .400 in August.  If you need outfield help, there are worse players to consider, that’s for sure.

Ty Wiggington – IF/OF – Astros: Wiggington is on fire.  No, seriously.  If a .400+ batting average with a slugging percentage of .800 doesn’t qualify as “hot”, sorry, I don’t know what does.  Not only is he hot right now, he’s playing.  One of the players expected to be most influenced (in a positive way) by the Carlos Lee injury, “Wiggy” qualifies at a number of positions in most formats including 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF.  To put it in golf terms, that’s “useful”.  He’s not going to keep up this kind of pace for the remainder of the year, but if you need a temporary plug and play, basically anywhere, pick up the hot-hitting Wiggington and rid the wave.  This late in the year, all the tsunamis are taken, and waves are all that remain—catch this one while you can.

Paul Maholm – SP – Pirates: This Pittsburgh hurler, despite pitching like a top 50 overall talent for the past month, continues to be a buried treasure in many leagues.  Maybe it’s his team affiliation.  Maybe it was that rough May with an ERA upwards of 6.00 that has kept pitching prospectors at bay.  Whatever the case, there’s no more reason to shy away.  Maholm seems to have turned a corner.  He’s not a big W candidate, but chasing wins is like chasing the wind anyway.  His Ks are up and his BBs are down.  Throw in useful ratios and you’re looking at a pitcher that can definitely help down the stretch run, something I don’t think you can say about injured hurlers like Aaron Harang, Erik Bedard, or Chris Young. 

Matt Wieters – C – Orioles and Matt LaPorta – OF- Indians. There’s really no telling if either player will get a call in time to be fantasy relevant in 2008.  In fact, if I had to place a bet, I’d probably err on the side of caution and bet against it.  Yet, both are elite prospects and should be held in high regard, especially in keeper leagues.  LaPorta was the crown jewel of the C.C. Sabathia trade, and his ’08 numbers support his lofty prospect status (.382OBP, .354SLG with 21HR).  The Indians have very little to play for, so it is possible that LaPorta may see some time sooner rather than later, although a September call-up seems most likely.  Wieters, on the other hand, is all but guaranteed to see little more than September action, despite not missing a beat at any minor league stage.  A .349 batting average, impressive as it may be, is only the tip of Wieter’s massive iceberg of talent.  If nothing else, he is a must have prospect in any keeper league.  To put it in more familiar prospect terms, Wieters is the David Price of hitting prospects, and he’s a catcher to boot.  Make an early note of both players for 2009 as well; it’s never too early to get a jump on the competition.