Jon Kitna seems undervalued every year. Somebody has to get the ball to those stud receivers!
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Finally, after a solid month of discussing, speculating and drafting based on last years stats tonight we’ll actually have some hard data to analyze. Finally the NFL season begins. You’ve spent hours looking over this seasons projected numbers, NFL depth charts, offensive lines and ‘handcuffs’. Beginning tonight, players will start to justify the reasons you took them high in your draft.
So with your drafts still fresh in your head, whom did you buy into? As in who is the player with all of the hype that you could not ignore? There are quite a few players who have yet to prove themselves and even some that have, that I saw get drafted before steadier players. Ah, that coveted upside! So let’s discuss some of that projected statistical progression here. Here are some players who have likely being drafted at or above their current value.
Calvin Johnson WR Detroit Lions
I get it. I really do. All through the pre-season I’ve been hearing Johnson’s name. He’s very talented and most people are figuring he’s going to go all Braylon Edwards on us this season. All of the tools are there and with Roy Williams opposite him almost requiring double coverage, he’s going to get a lot of open looks. Jon Kitna is a serviceable quarterback who has shown the ability to get his guys the ball. This is causing him to be drafted ahead of where he should be going in some drafts. Bear in mind one thing here: You’re going to have pay for him in a draft so he’s not really a sleeper. A ‘sleeper’ is somebody you draft in the middle or late rounds that gives you early round statistics. If he ends up giving you elite production from a 5th round pick that’s pretty good. If you’re stepping up to draft him in the 3rd round, you might want to re-think your draft strategy. He’s definitely talented and I believe he will get his, but try to be the guy getting a true current #1 wideout first. Draft Johnson as a guy who has the ability to be your 2nd #1 wide receiver.
Jerricho Cotchery WR New York Jets
If you happened to be off planet during the summer months you may have missed this news but Brett Favre is now a Jet. Despite No. 4’s age, he’s still a big upgrade for the Jets at quarterback. As soon as the deal was done, I thought Cotchery would make for a fine fantasy draft pick. He’ll likely be a little under the radar being that the focus was really on Favre and his hall of fame career going to the biggest stage in New York. Also, he’s not the only good receiver the Jets have. From what I’ve seen in drafts, Cotchery is on a lot of people’s ‘sleeper lists’. Like Johnson he’s more of a ‘break out candidate’ than a sleeper so don’t over pay for him. My point as with Johnson, is that he’s a good possible break out player if you already have a steady top wide out. Besides Cotchery, if you’re looking for respectable value plays and sleepers that will benefit from Favre go with Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles, or better yet Dustin Keller, the rookie tight end.
Santonio Holmes WR Pittsburgh Steelers
The Answer: Hines Ward. The Question: Who is oldest and most injury riddled #1 wide receiver of which one of our three aforementioned ‘bust out’ candidates has the pleasure of being paired with? Holmes I believe will end up being the best value pick. These are the reasons I like Holmes a lot for this season. He’s already one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets. You have to expect a bit of growth from Holmes this year, but if Ward goes down for any length of time, you’ve suddenly drafted a legit #1 wide out on a pass happy offense. I’ll take the chance that Ward gets injured, but even so, Holmes is a great #2 wide receiver to own.
Now given the drafts I’ve seen, you likely see this trend. Somebody snags Johnson first maybe a nudge earlier than he should, then Holmes and then somebody probably reaches a bit for Cotchery. Johnson is going sometimes before Roy Williams (who’s in a contract year by the way) and actually the Lions #1 receiver. Williams has a good shot at outscoring Johnson in fantasy and in reality. Not that any of these receivers is a bad choice. All signs point to each of them as having very good years. Just be careful about where you draft them. Don’t pay for the hype where a steady statistical producer will do just as well in early rounds of your draft.
Here are a few players who I feel are undervalued so far based on drafts I’ve participated in and the general buzz players have been getting in the pre-season.:
Brandon Marshall WR Denver Broncos
He’s only out a week! Most people think it’s longer or think that missing one week makes him less valuable. Don’t make that mistake. He’s a legit #1 wide receiver that a lot of people are passing over in drafts for lesser talent. Trade for him now if you’re draft is already finished!
Donald Driver WR Green Bay Packers
I think the perception is that Driver will be useless without Favre. Maybe it’s his age (33)? Either way a guy who’s recorded 80 + receptions and 1000 + yards receiving each season annually over the last 3 years, is a guy who has some value in most formats.
Kurt Warner QB Arizona Cardinals
Again with the age dilemma. Is Warner too old? Probably, but Matt Leinart is not ready yet. Maybe he never will be. Either way I want the guy who’s tossing footballs to Anquin Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Right now that guy is Warner.
Jon Kitna QB Detroit Lions
Here’s another undervalued quarterback who has two great receivers as teammates. You’re all hung up on Calvin Johnson. Don’t forget the guy who gets him the football!
Chris Cooley TE Washington Redskins
His numbers from past seasons suggest he’s an upper tier tight end. He presents great value, as you won’t have to use a high pick to draft him.
Well that’s all for me this week. Enjoy the game!
