After all his injury woes, is some team really going to pay A.J. Burnett $80M?

Who currently doubts that Dwight Howard is a top pick in head to head leagues now?  Come on now out there.  Put your hands up.  10 blocks people.  That’s right 10 in one night.  That’s more than some teams get in a week.  Ok, so it was the Thunder he was playing against (minus one Kevin Durant), but in the end it doesn’t matter. 10 blocks is 10 blocks.  In the middle of a head to head week, that is what I was referring to a few weeks ago as a difference maker.  Howard is destructive enough to win you one category in a week all by himself. 

Does he maintain his current 4.4 blocks per game?  I doubt it. However, his high field goal percentage and rebounding rate along with respectable points average per game are the reasons you have to consider him a top 10 fantasy player in head to head leagues.  Yes, he’ll kill you in free throws, but his massive positives out weigh his negatives.  He is a premier player at a rare position that accumulates a hard to get stat (blocks), and has a rebound-per-game average (14.5), that is as good as owning two solid power forwards.

As is often the case with fantasy sports of any kind, a player’s value can fluctuate quite often during the season.  This fact is accentuated in fantasy hoops, as any injury, flu bug, or coach’s blessing can lead to more playing time in a blink of an eye.

With that in mind, my least favorite coach is Scott Skiles.  I’m not suggesting he’s a bad coach.  I’m sure he’s quite skilled at what he does on the court to win games.  However, he’s essentially killed the value of two of my favorite sleepers for this season, Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions.  I understand that Charlie V (that’s what they called him when he played for the Raptors, and with a last name like that I understand why) has essentially no defensive ability, and is not considered much of a hustler.  However, he has a nose for the basket and seems to be a reasonable enough rebounder.  He can shoot a 3 ball and occasionally gets you a steal and a block.  Skiles kicked him to the bench and handed Luc Richard Mbah a Moute the starting job.  So Charlie V owners like me are now stuck with the ultimate fantasy hoops decision, fish or cut bait?  Right now it’s only week 4 so I’m holding on.  It’s a long season.  When most teams have only played 12 games out of 82, it’s definitely not time to panic.  Remember to stick to the basics; a small sample size does not a season make.  Do I think Charlie V finds a way into the lineup in the long run?  Yes.  Mbah a Moute is playing well right now, but he wasn’t much of a force in college.  Meaning?  He’s likely playing a bit over his head currently.  Villanueva will get some more time at some point in the season.  I’d rather him do that on my team than one of my opponents.

Skiles other decision, starting Luke Ridnour over last April’s uber-assist man Sessions is also a curious one.  Sessions has a ton of upside (although Ridnour isn’t exactly a slouch by any means either), and really should be playing over Ridnour given the circumstances.  Despite being in a time share, Sessions is putting up fantastic averages: 15.9 points per game, 5.3 assists per game and 1 steal per game.  Considering the Bucks are still a relatively young team, they would be better off playing him over Ridnour, if only to develop his talent.  Sessions has shown that if Ridnour goes down, the Bucks offense will continue to roll.

Again, these are coach related decisions, not necessarily a matter of talent.  Skiles likes Mbah a Moute’s hustle and would rather have an experienced point guard.  Something tells me Villanueva will find a way into the lineup, but honestly right now it doesn’t look good for those that drafted him.  Patience will be required.  Sessions is also worth hanging on to.  Eventually his insane per minute numbers, or an injury to Ridnour are going to get him more minutes and back into the starting lineup.  With a healthy Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson, whoever mans the point in Milwaukee will end up with gaudy assist numbers.

It is actually interesting to see how a coach’s decision can influence fantasy value.  It’s not an easy thing to predict, but something to keep in the back of your mind when you’re drafting or picking up players.  Part of me knew Skiles was a hard-nosed coach who likes defensive, hustling players that bring energy to the court.  Still, I felt Villanueva was a good pick because there was no competition for the power forward job on paper.  He was basically guaranteed strong minutes by default.  Again, being so early in the season, I’m going to wait this situation out a bit.  Villanueva is not helping the situation by recently injuring his hamstring.

The other decision I foresee being an issue is the Russell Westbrook/Earl Watson situation in Oklahoma.  I’m not a big fan of coaches who decide to play a useless veteran over a talented prospect.  Right now the Thunder are a bad team.  They are not contending at all this year, but have some nice players to build around in Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and the aforementioned Westbrook.  My question is; why bother starting Watson at all?  Yes, Westbrook will tire out as the season progresses, as he’s not used to the amount of games played at the NBA level.  However, he’ll gain invaluable experience playing with full time minutes.  The Thunder is guaranteed to be a lottery team.  Why not build a strong foundation and hopefully garner some chemistry amongst your 3 probable pillars of success this year?  You can then select another solid prospect with your lottery pick and add him to your deep base of experienced and talented players.

At some point, likely in the next week or so, common sense has to kick in.  I’m predicting Westbrook will begin to eat up minutes (he had 30 minutes against the Clippers on Wednesday) and for those in deeper leagues, you might as well put him on your bench.  He will struggle with his shooting a bit, but his all around game (steals, assists mixed with solid point totals) will make him worth owning.

Switching gears a bit here…

Baseball’s regular season can sometimes drag on with 162 games, but there is no shortage of drama in the off season.  The rumor mill is fully churning.  Where will Manny Ramirez sign and for how much?  Who has the best package of prospects to land Jake Peavy from the Padres?  Will the Yankees actually pay A.J. Burnett $80 million? Or will they land C.C. Sabathia for a rumored 100 million + contract?

There has already been one titanic trade with Matt Holliday going to Oakland for Greg Smith, Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez. Great move by Billy Beane of course.  The two pitchers coming over to Colorado will not be as effective playing in the high altitudes.  I’m immediately dropping them on my draft list.  Street would likely assume the closer role though.   Carlos Gonzalez should be on your sleeper radar now.  With Holliday gone Gonzalez may become a starting OF as Colorado rebuilds with youth.  The thin air tends to create fantasy monsters and Gonzalez has talent.

The Cubs overpaid for Ryan Dempster giving him a 4-year, $52 million deal.  Even major league general managers pay for career years.  His numbers from this past season suggest he can keep it up but I’ll be looking elsewhere for starting pitching next season.

Coco Crisp landed in Kansas City and will make for a nice fantasy player there.  The improving Royal offense will likely be under valued on draft day in 2009.  He’s a threat to steal, and with regular time could see 25 stolen bases again.  We’ll have to see how the Royals outfield shakes out next season. This is a better place for Crisp to get playing time than in Boston behind Jacob Ellsbury.