Adrian Beltre, Mariners

I was an invincible young man five years ago.

I was a guy who could play 36 holes of golf and still have enough energy to go to a baseball game, eat sausages and drink beer---not lite beer---but beer. I was just what Cameron Diaz’s character in There’s Something About Mary was looking for in a man back in the early and mid-2000’s.  

Oh yeah, on any given summer day I was able to shoot hoops, play five sets of tennis, swill 12 beers (funneling four of them), wince through a few Jagermeister shots, dance maniacally to 1980’s new wave at some club, find an after-party, eventually pass out around 5:00 AM---and still wake up before noon with a smile and a purpose.

Now, just 1,825 short days later at the age of 32, my back aches for no apparent reason. After exercising, I walk more awkwardly than American History X’s Derek Vinyard just after his “prison shower” encounter with a pack of skinhead deviants. And now if I don’t dine after a few cocktails I’m spending the entire next day on the sofa, un-showered with the blinds drawn, trying like heck to replicate a “never fails” mid-twenties concoction which once doubled as my Sunday morning Human Growth Hormone---namely double cheeseburgers, super-sized fries and a gallon of Coca Cola. Sadly now, even my stomach can’t handle the grease like it used to. So in addition to a nasty, incurable hangover, I also have volcanic diarrhea. Awesome.

Needless to say, I’m worried that I’ve already reached my peak in life. I’ve heard the urban legends which describe how the transition from light and nimble to mid-aged and grumpy happens in the blink of an eye. I'm deeply concerned by this. Literally one morning you're doing keg stands the next your doing Metamucil-stands. It's that quick, so I hear.

But could it be worse? Sure. I'm lucky enough to be in a profession which doesn't require superior 20/20 vision---the kind that requires you to catch up with a 101 MPH Joel Zumaya fastball. And if I'm soar, I need not worry about how I'll be able to steal second base in such pain. Instead, I work a desk job, stress over fantasy baseball and try to predict when others have hit the “back 9.” Talk about deflecting the inevitable!

You see, just like everyday people, everyday baseball players also have a defining year when things go “south” for good.  And as fantasy owners, it’s our responsibility to not only notice such geriatric signs in a player’s career, but to also yell it out for everyone to hear.

Such as now (as I pick up my bullhorn).

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN…GATHER AROUND!!

TAKE NOTICE OF THE FOLLOWING FANSTASY PLAYERS WHO ARE NOW ON THE “BACK-9!”

Sorry Vernon, Roy, Kerry and Adrian---it’s my job.

OF Vernon Wells. In 2008 Wells managed to sandwich a .300 AVG in between a subpar 2007 and a truly atrocious start to 2009. But does it even matter? Truth be told, Wells hasn’t been a fantasy factor since 2006. His last three years (counting 2009) have produced the three lowest HR and RBI (if not for an injury shortened 2004) totals of his career. And his 2007 & 2009  OBP and OPS also ranks the lowest in his 11 years in the big-leagues. Signed to a whopping seven-year $126 million extension that runs until 2014, Wells’ first though after signing the contract in 2006 had nothing to do with baseball or commitment or winning. It was all about the money. During an telephone interview with ESPN just hours after he signed the contract, the centerfielder started the conversation with this nugget: "How can you not be happy?----Like I said, my family comes first. Obviously this gives me an opportunity to set my family up for a couple of generations. That's the biggest part of this thing.” Now don’t get me wrong; behind closed doors---yes---family does come first---but to ooze on about your kids and grandkids trust funds?? Huh? Shouldn’t the biggest part of this thing be about a commitment to WINNING in Toronto? I wonder how Jays general manager J.P Ricciardi feels about this now! Good luck with that, J.P.

P Roy Oswalt. The stats on Oswalt don't lie. Every year since 2005, the last season in which he won 20 games, his production has gone down---most notably in games won, innings pitched and ERA. Now don’t get me wrong, even with such downward progression, Oswalt’s numbers are pretty darn decent (what owner wouldn’t take a 15 win, 3.18 ERA). But as the old saying goes, “it is what it is.” He's on pace for 190 innings this year and gave up a career high 23 HR in 2008. Is Oswalt headed the way of Dontrelle Willis? Not even close, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility to think his productivity will fall even more throughout the next few years. On the books with Houston until 2011 (the club holds a 2012 option) we may see an Oswalt-of-old resurgence in his 2010’s contract year, but I wouldn’t expect anything more than the numbers we saw last year until then---i.e a 3.50 ERA and 15 wins.  

RP Kerry Wood. This one’s way too obvious but a fine example nonetheless. Wood’s career has been hampered not by ineffectiveness (up until this year at least) but by injury, as according to at least two posts on IMDB.com, M. Night Shyamalan actually considered casting him as Elijah “Mr. Glass” Price in 2000's Unbreakable before going with Samuel L. Jackson. But seriously, to see Wood struggle so much in 2009 is sad. He’s certainly on the “Back 9,” but at the same time, I thought the same of then 35 year old P Todd Jones in 2003, two years BEFORE he would go on to rattle off 132 saves over four seasons in Detroit. So with pitchers, you never know, but with Wood its different. In 2009 his ERA has inflated, his once-gorgeous WHIP is now approaching 1.50, he has a few blown saves, four HR allowed and an ERA close to 5.00. This comes one year after a 2008 in which he threw the most innings (66.1) in almost 5 years. With Wood---as The Great Space Coaster's Gary Gnu once said, "No gnews is good gnews." And as you can see, Wood is making news for all the wrong reasons.  

3B Adrian Beltre. The current version of Beltre reminds me of Jack Clark in his latter days---someone who’s in the lineup for occasional pop---and pop only---although Clark did have enough patience at the plate to lead the league in walks two out of his last three full seasons. But now in his 12^th full season, Beltre’s having trouble doing the one thing he was drafted to do—hit an occasional home run. He’s one pace for less than 15 in 2009 and in the last two years his OPS has consistently dropped---which is not a good sign---especially in a contract year! Owned in 56% of Yahoo leagues, expect that number to steadily decrease over the next few years as he gently fades into the sunset. Orvoir!