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The Grumble: October 30, 2009
Theo LoPreste
Theo LoPreste, a fantasy sports writer for Sports Grumblings, has over 13 years of experience participating in baseball, football, hockey and basketball fantasy leagues. Well trained in navigating the highs, lows and overall ambivalence each season brings, Theo's unique perspective on navigating the fantasy landscape may very well save your life and season. 

The Grumble: October 30, 2009
By Theo LoPreste | Published  10/29/2009

Ricky Williams, Dolphins

With Halloween at our doorstep and the playoffs just over a month away, now is not the time to panic or become frightened if you’re the proud owner of a fantasy football franchise. I mean – for the love of Peat – you’ve worked too damn hard to toss away your hopes and dreams by spontaneously acquiring players with tough upcoming schedules. Make sure you do your homework! Check those schedules! Before sabotaging yourself with a lopsided trade or undisciplined waiver-wire move that results in dropping proven talent for a “one-week wonder”, look in the mirror and recite the mantra “sometimes the best trades and acquisitions are the ones I DON’T make.”

 

In short, don’t inadvertently dismantle your team within minutes after months and months and months of managing it properly. You’ll just end up hating yourself. Trust me.

 

Otherwise, step away from the free-agent pool for a moment, drop that 25 year-old vinyl Monster Mash record into the Sanyo, pop open a pumpkin brew and read some old fashioned Grumble fun  – which as usual completely lacks the traditional flow you may be used to.



We’re Talking About Playoffs?! Playoffs?!

 

ST. LOUIS – Week 13 @Chi; Week 14 @Ten; Week 15 vs. Hou; Week 16 @Ariz

Considering all we've heard in recent weeks about RB Steven Jackson's lack of touchdowns, it's just unbelievable to see he's just seven total points (72) behind Falcon's RB Michael Turner (7 TD's) in standard scoring leagues. Truth be told, if Jackson hypothetically hit pay dirt just just a few times – partnered with the already 800 total yards he’s gotten – he'd be a top five fantasy back. Unfortunately, however, when you're on a team that's scored just 60 total points in seven weeks, consider it a blessing he's managed to stay this productive, motivated and most importantly – valuable through such turmoil. After all, he's still getting 25+ touches a game and averaging 4.4 yards per carry – even when opposing defenses are stacking the box, daring him to run. Frustrated owners, however, might not appreciate such optimism. To many, he's become a disappointment and in turn his trade value has plummeted – which forces me to mention that NOW becomes the perfect time to acquire him. Just look at Jackson's matchup this week against the equally hapless Lions, followed by a juicy playoff schedule that includes the Bears, Titans, and Texans – all teams who've at times struggled mightily against the run – and Jackson looks a lot more appealing, even if he’s already on pace for 1800+ total yards. 

 

CINCINATTI – Week 13 vs. Det; Week 14 @Min; Week 15 @SD, Week 16 vs. KC

Revenge is a dish best served cold. Just ask Cincinnati RB Cedric Benson, who last week torched his former Bears team for 189 yards and a score, the most any back has gone for against Chicago since at least 1950, when they first started keeping that record! As crazy as it sounds, Benson's performance wasn't a surprise or a one-week wonder. He ran hard from start to finish – just as he has all season – and just as he'll continue to do. With much of the 720 yard he's accumulated so far in 2009 coming against staunch rushing defenses like the second ranked Broncos, fifth ranked Steelers, sixth ranked Baltimore and tenth ranked Packers, Benson's remaining schedule becomes embarrassingly easier. In weeks 11 and 12 he gets Oakland and Cleveland – and his fantasy playoff schedule might be the most promising of any NFL running back. With Detroit, San Diego and Kansas City – all atrocious at stopping the run – on tap starting in Week 14, every sign points to Benson ending the year very, very, very strong. 



Start Em’ If You Got Em’

 

WR Kevin Walter, Texans - When WR Andre Johnson is forces to leave a game after spitting up blood – caused by a chest contusion – you have to be at least a bit concerned, right? After all, the lungs help you breathe and long breathes help you run long routes, correct? Just say yes. That's why, although Johnson is listed as questionable and probably will see the field to some extent, fellow WR Kevin Walter becomes a must-play this week. Walter, who's struggled to recapture his 2008 mojo will no doubt see an increased amount of looks from QB Matt Schaub and most likely put together one of his occasional 150 yard, multi-TD performances. Prediction: 8 catches for 144 yards, 2 TDs.

 

RB D’Angelo Williams, Carolina – Never mind that Arizona has the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL – of course you start Williams! I'm simply here to say that you start him with supreme confidence! In two career games against the Cardinals, he's gone for 238 yards and 2 TD's. Prediction: 13 rushes, 134 yards, 1 TD.

 

RB Ricky Williams, Dolphins – Williams recorded 138 total yards back in Week 5 when Kris Jenkins was healthy, upright and a run-stopping beast. On Sunday Williams gets another shot – this time with Jenkins out of the lineup – and should improve on the 1.5 TD/game pace he's been on over the last four weeks. Could this be the week New York gives up over 250 yards on the ground to the likes of Williams and Ronnie Brown? Yes. Mark it down. Prediction: 12 rushes, 96 yards, TD; 4 catches for 56 yards.

 

 

Deep Leagues, Deep Sleepers

 

WR Dennis Northcutt, Lions vs. St. Louis Rams – If Megatron’s knee keeps him inactive on Sunday, Northcutt and Bryant Johnson remain Detroit’s best downfield weapons – which aren’t saying much. Northcutt, however, showed enough grit a few weeks back against Pittsburgh (79 yards and a score) to convince me that whoever is slinging it – Culpepper or Stanton – will look to him often. His eleven catches over the past two weeks leads the team.  Prediction: 6 catches for 68 yards, TD

 

WR Keenan Burton, Rams vs. Detroit Lions – With RB Steven Jackson primed for a big game and Detroit’s run defense shivering with fear, opportunities will finally arise for QB Marc Bulger to get some breathing room and air it out a bit. While WR Donnie Avery will get the bulk of the targets, Burton should find a few opportunities to break free and deliver against an equally atrocious secondary. Prediction: 4 catches for 60 yards

 

WR Brian Hartline, Dolphins vs. NY Jets - Hartline lined up with the first unit in practice on Wednesday so he’ll at least get a shot to produce on Sunday versus the Jets. In limited duty last week against New Orleans, he delivered, catching three balls for 93 yards. There’s no reason to say he can’t replicate that again, especially if both teams stop playing defense like they did back in Week 5. Prediction: 5 catches for 72 yards, TD


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