The Detroit Tigers have locked up Miguel Cabrera for all of his prime years.
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Greetings and salutations sports fans. Allow myself to introduce… myself. I am a finance professional that finds statistics absolutely delicious. I began analyzing sports statistics almost as soon as I learned what a correlation coefficient is. I signed up to write the Sunday Grumble with hopes of translating my numbers obsession into your fantasy success. While I’ll be bringing you the same superb off the cuff analysis as the other Grumble contributors, I’ll also attempt to help you learn about what stats can tell us about predictions and trends. I welcome all feedback and suggestions as some of my ideas are better than others, if something piques your interest drop me a note and we can explore it further. So without further ado…
The big news this morning involves the Detroit Tigers. First is the report that Miguel Cabrera has signed an 8 year deal with the Tigers for roughly $19 million per year. Needless to say this appears to be a great deal for the Tigers as Cabrera would stand to make much more if he hit free agency. However, Cabrera hits pay dirt a full two years ahead of schedule, and there is that saying about a bird in hand being better than two one year contracts in the bush.
Unfortunately for the Tigers (and possibly your fantasy team) this good news was offset by the report that Curtis Granderson has a broken finger as a result of being hit with a pitch yesterday, and will miss at least the next 3-4 weeks. Jacque Jones figures to move to center and Granderson’s loss should be Brandon Inge’s gain. If he’s given a shot in the outfield, and he’ll be worth starting in AL only leagues. Another player to keep and eye on is Marcus Thames, who could find himself being showcased for a potential trade for some bullpen help. More on Thames to come, on to the stats!
‘SPRING TRAINING STATS DON’T MATTER, OR DO THEY?’
As the season hasn’t started, it could be argued that we don’t have many stats to analyze yet. The conventional wisdom that spring training stats are meaningless has been sung from the highest towers in fantasy sports, and rightfully so. These exhibition statistics are just that, practice stats. There is almost no correlation between ST performance and actual performance when the runs, wins, and K’s count. Due to this fact, in almost every case these stats bear little predictive value. Almost. One exception to this rule applies to the hitters.
In 2006 John Dewan (of Baseball Info Solutions) proved that there is a statistically significant correlation between spikes in a player’s spring training slugging percentage over career average and breakout years. That was a mouthful. Basically, if a player slugs .200 points above their career average in spring training, more often than not, they will carry that performance forward to the regular season. Keep in mind not every player will see that prediction hold true, so we need to do extra research to see what players are most likely to be in line for a career year based on what he’s done this spring.
Let’s look at a few examples.
Grady Sizemore: I know what you’re your thinking. It’s not very helpful to tell someone that Sizemore is a great ballplayer. However, Grady has displayed the largest slugging % jump of any player this spring. It’s clear to me that he will take a big step towards reaching his tremendous potential this year, and I would consider taking him early in the second round, possibly before Carl Crawford but that’s a different argument for a different article.
Brad Hawpe: I drafted Hawpe last year expecting good things, and then made the erroneous decision to cut him after a horrendous April. Hawpe caught fire in May and hardly looked back until the Rox magical run was cut down in its prime by the Red Sox. Yet it’s still possible that Hawpe is being undervalued due to the effects of his April stats on his season numbers, and on concerns that batting 6th without Troy Tulowitzki in the 7th spot to protect him could lead to his large platoon split being exploited. Based on his jump of .500 points in slugging percentage this spring, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and bump this 28-year-old former LSU tiger up my draft sheet.
Marcus Thames: As mentioned above, Curtis Granderson’s injury should provide an opportunity for Thames and the Tigers to showcase his skill. Thames has also made a big jump in slugging % this spring. It’s entirely possible that Thames is about to have his peak power year, though at age 31 he seems a little old for this to occur. He has always had a great deal of power (18 HRs in less than 300 ABs last year), but has never shown the discipline to be an every day starter. Fortunately for Thames and you, there are desperate teams that might provide him with more playing time. The Mets attempted to trade for Thames but didn’t meet the Tiger’s price. If they should eventually decide that the hole Moises Alou’s hernia has created needs to be filled, he’d be a player I would consider picking up in NL only leagues.
I’ll leave it to you to explore this correlation further. Check out the spring stats and some quick analysis will help you find the guys performing above their career marks. Put some additional thought into playing time situations, and age, as older players are less likely to suddenly increase their power output barring unseen elements. It is what it is. Feel free to drop me a line if you have questions or want to discuss in more depth. In the meantime, let’s wrap up by looking at some pitching analysis.
LOST IN TRANSLATION
The modern MLB franchise’s search for talent has long since exceeded the boundaries of this hemisphere. It seems as if every season there is a heralded player from the Japanese professional ranks who is thought to be a potential impact player immediately upon his arrival. Since 1995, this process has produced 6 All-Stars, 2 ROYs, and an MVP, and has exhibited a fairly high rate of success in terms of player procurement. However, it is not without its share of disappointments. Hideki Irabu is the most notable, and Kei Igawa put forth a righteous effort this past season to join George Steinbrenner’s favorite overweight amphibian in infamy.
This coming season there are 4 Japanese pitching imports, and all four figures to have at least somewhat prominent roles on their new teams:
Masahide Kobayashi – Cleveland Indians (insert hot dog eating/Usual Suspects joke here)
Kazuo Fukumori – Texas Rangers
Yasuhika Yabuta – Kansas City Royals
Hiroki Kuroda – Los Angeles Dodgers
The starting pitchers that have crossed the Pacific have been an uneven bunch, ranging from elite at their apex (Hideo Nomo) to downright mediocre and worse (Kazuhisa Ishii, Tomo Ohka, Masato Yoshii, Irabu). There has however, emerged a decided trend as it pertains to relievers. Beginning in 2000 with Kazuhiro Sasaki’s 37 save rookie season which resulted in the “rookie” of the year award, there have been a steady stream of relievers who have emerged as fantasy assets in either their rookie or second season. Since 2000 there have been 5 Japanese pitchers who became above average late inning relievers:
ShingoTakatsu – 2.31 ERA, 19 saves (good for10th in AL) his rookie season
Kazuhiro Sasaki – 37 saves and the Rookie of the Year
Akinori Otsuka – nearly 80 innings of 1.75 ERA and nearly 90 Ks as 8th inning reliever
Takashi Saito – 24 saves in his rookie season to go along with 107 Ks
Hideki Okajima – an elite middle reliever for most of the season and even provided 5 saves
In order to compile a sufficient sample for these relievers, I have used per-inning rates for their final 3 years in Japan and aim to show how those rates increased or decreased upon their MLB debut. Since Takashi Saito spent a significant portion of his final 3 years as a starter he was eliminated for consideration in this exercise. The performances of the four remaining relievers ranged from Sasaki’s video game numbers to the serviceable numbers of Takatsu. The ages of the players upon arrival all are similar (as a result of Japan’s usurious free agent system which requires service time of nine seasons as opposed to MLB’s six). Ages have ranged from a rookie season at age 31 (Okajima) up to Takatsu whose initial MLB campaign was his age 35 season.
Their final three-year averages in Japan are as follows:
ERA 2.51
WHIP 1.03
H PER 9 6.82
HR PER 9 0.93
BB PER 9 2.47
K PER 9 10.51
Obviously for an MLB reliever those rates are the upper echelon of performance as we find that only 4 relievers in 2007 (50 inning minimum) had rates of less than 1.1 base runners per inning and 10.5 K/9: Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Marmol, Huston Street and yes…Takashi Saito.
But those numbers are Japanese League numbers and are not much help to fantasy players…below are the averages of those same relievers for their rookie season in MLB:
ERA 2.36
WHIP 1.04
H / 9 6.21
HR / 9 0.95
BB / 9 3.18
K / 9 9.19
The population of major leaguers who exceeded those numbers is larger but each player at this level was an asset to the majority of fantasy staffs and the list includes: J.J. Putz, Heath Bell, Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt.
The per inning rates tell us a few things about translation:
What does all this tell us about the prospects of the rookies who make the move to MLB this year? A few points: None of the relievers coming over this season maintained levels at or above most of the relievers to arrive in the past. None of the relievers exceeded a 3-year K rate of even 7.7 per 9 innings pitched. Additionally, the reliever who is of most interest to fantasy owners given his situation (Fukumori) actually had rates that bordered on horrendous in Japan.
Of the 3 relievers I believe the only two with a significant chance for impact in the majors are Masahide Kobayashi of Cleveland and Kazuo Fukumori in Texas. The third reliever in the triumvirate, Yasuhika Yabuta, is the oldest of the three at age 35 and was neither a closer in Japan, nor thought of as a true shutdown reliever. In fact, he was the primary setup man for Kobayashi on the Chiba Lotte Marines. Couple those facts with an already dreadful performance and I would say it is safe to cross Yabuta’s name off the list of true relief sleepers.
Kobayashi comes over with the best credentials of the three as he is one of 3 relievers in Japanese League history to record 200 saves (Sasaki and Takatsu being the others) and recorded 90 saves over his final three seasons in Japan. His 3-year rates in Japan are as follows:
ERA 2.95
WHIP 1.23
H / 9 9.29
HR / 9 0.86
BB / 9 1.78
K / 9 7.13
Very respectable numbers to be sure. However, his final season in Japan was by far his worst in recent memory. He experienced moderate to severe erosion in all of his per inning rates, including a ballooning of his WHIP from 1.06 to 1.37. Finally, he enters his rookie season at the somewhat advanced age of 34. These factors, combined with the fact that the Indians bullpen is deep, with candidates capable of stepping in for Joe Borowski, and I would call Kobayashi a name to consider for AL-only bullpens and a name to watch in mixed leagues as a turnaround in performance is not out of the question.
Lastly, we consider the most fantasy newsworthy import, Kazuo Fukumori. With injury concerns regarding C.J. Wilson, Joaquin Benoit, and perennial concern Eddie Guardado there have been grumblings mentioning Fukumori as a stealth saves candidate. His spring training statistics have been by far the best of any of the three imports with 7 Ks against one walk and no runs. However, his walk rate has been a problem in Japan and has led him to post some ugly WHIPs. Yet his K/9 has been over 8 the past two seasons and he is the youngest of the three relievers, playing this season at 32. I would say uncertainty of the Texas bullpen and his eye opening spring training performance makes Fukumori a vital handcuff to Wilson in mixed leagues and a name that should receive action in AL only leagues.
It is proven that successful Japanese relievers do translate to above average major league relievers immediately and while this year’s relatively large crop is not at the level of past years, they’re still names to you should be familiar with as at least one of them is likely to be a fantasy factor this season.
Hopefully you can employ some of this analysis in your upcoming drafts and wavier wire selections. Next week I’ll give you my belated predictions and we can look at some moves to make as the fantasy basketball season draws to a close. Additionally I have my most competitive draft next Saturday and will give you a report of my successes and failures.
Good luck in all your drafts this week.
A lifelong Yankee fan, Matt chose to reside in the belly of the beast and calls
Boston home. His location in one of the worlds most sports obsessed cities, and
his education in economics from the University of Michigan will help him prepare
in depth statistical analysis to improve your fantasy team.