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The Grumble -- April 7, 2008
Matt Murphy
A lifelong Yankee fan, Matt chose to reside in the belly of the beast and calls Boston home.  His location in one of the worlds most sports obsessed cities, and his education in economics from the University of Michigan will help him prepare in depth statistical analysis to improve your fantasy team.  

The Grumble -- April 7, 2008
By Matt Murphy | Published  04/7/2008
  Josh Beckett
Questions remain about Josh Beckett's long-term health after a brutal outing this weekend.

Hello baseball fans and disgruntled Tigers enthusiasts.  The baseball season is off to a delicious start, with fans of almost every team finding misguided reasons to panic or rejoice.  Since we’re only a few games into the season it’s important not to put too much weight into the events that have unfolded so far.  The Tiger’s will not go 0-162 (though it’s clear that one failed GM/failing Baseball Tonight talking head’s assertion that the Tigers have the best offense of all time is not only erroneous but irresponsible), Xavier Nady will not lead the league in RBI (though what would April be without a tear of great games by the Xman), and the AL East might finish the exact opposite of Sunday’s standings.  Fear not, the sports universe will soon return to normal as the season develops and our expectations and reality converge.

            Helping this process along are two pitchers returning from season opening stints on the disabled list.  Both Josh Beckett and John Smoltz returned on Sunday, and their fantasy owners let out a small sigh of relief.  Beckett had been dealing with back spasms and a self-reported hip issue the spring and the Boston media were quick to call his winter conditioning into question.  Perhaps because of his conditioning, Beckett ran into some trouble this afternoon as he gave up 5 earned runs while only recording 14 outs.  The Boston ace showed glimpses of his great stuff but was forced to throw nearly 100 pitches before being pulled in the 5th.  Once he advanced in his pitch count, he tired and loaded the bases, and was pulled for Manny Delcarmen, who was absolutely no help to him and gave up a grand slam to the Big Hurt Frank Thomas.  While questions remain regarding Beckett’s long-term health for the season, he should bounce back from this outing and improve over the short term as his conditioning improves.

             On the other side of the spectrum 40-year-old John Smoltz returned from a sore shoulder to strike out 6 batters while throwing 5 scoreless innings and leading the Braves to a win over Johan Santana and the Mets.  Smoltz has been dealing with his shoulder off and on for the last few years and was able to pitch through the discomfort effectively.  Though he might miss a few starts when his shoulder needs a rest, a lot of people found a steal in their draft as news of Smoltz’s shoulder hit the press and depressed his value during the peak fantasy draft season.

            The antithesis of pitchers coming back from the DL: Eric Bedard was scratched from his start on Sunday with hip issues of his own.  The Mariners went with Felix Hernandez, who threw an absolute gem only to be robbed of a victory by shoddy work from the M’s bullpen (more on that to come).  Seattle is hoping that Bedard will be OK to pitch on Tuesday and it was probably the right call to be cautious so early in the season.  On to the pen news…

The old adage that closers and saves are bountiful in season continues to prove accurate as Chad Cordero’s assignment to the disabled list on Saturday shows. Be advised that the Nationals are not indicating this is a long-term issue, but there is reason to pessimistic. Cordero sported a near 1.4 WHIP in 2007 and displayed a platoon split in which righties hit near .300 against him. In his stead, former first round pick and current primary setup man, Jon Rauch, will get the call in save situations. In nearly 180 innings pitched in the past two seasons while setting up Cordero, Rauch has displayed durability and a level of performance at least as good as Cordero and arguably superior. In the short-term, Rauch should be owned in all leagues and could provide longer-term value in the event the injury is more serious than has been indicated. 

The closing situation is direr in Seattle, where All-Star closer J.J. Putz has been felled by the mysterious-sounding ailment, costochondritis. Early uniformed estimates have pegged the recovery time at roughly three weeks, but the Mariners have been mum on the issue as of yet. The popular in-house candidate and speculative pickup has been young fireballer, Mark Lowe. Lowe spent most of 2007 rehabbing from elbow surgery and projects to provide some strikeout potential. Unfortunately for Lowe, he blew his first save opportunity (and negated gorgeous pitching by Felix Hernandez) on Sunday versus the lowly Orioles. Beyond Lowe, the Mariners pen does not contain any obvious short-term closing options so it is entirely possible manager John McLaren will opt for the dreaded closer by committee. 

Another closer situation that is currently rife for speculation in fantasy circles is the Brewers bullpen. With Eric Gagne blowing his initial save opportunity and with his disastrous stint in Boston last year still fresh in mind of fantasy owners, you may have seen a spike in Brewers reliever ownership in your league. In a bullpen filled with former closing options (Derrick Turnbow, Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota) it seems clear in the early going that the favorite in the event of a switch is David Riske. Signed to a significant contact this past offseason, Riske has displayed the superior track record recently and was brought in to close the one game that Gagne did blow. In deeper leagues in which all closer handcuffs are owned it is necessary to own Riske. 

A few NL/AL only notes from this weekend:

The Marlins acquired third baseman Wes Helms from the Phillies for cash considerations. Jorge Cantu is off to a slow start as the starter at the hot corner and realistically should not be offered much of a leash, so Helms becomes a possibility. 

Rangers OF David Murphy continued his hot hitting with a homer on Saturday, and should be seen as the favorite to receive playing time over Marlon Byrd.  Murphy is a nice option at the back of your outfield in AL-only leagues. 

Coming off a hot spring and seen as a minor piece in the Dan Haren deal, Dana Eveland pitched a nice game against a struggling Indians offense. Eveland has never seen his above average minor league rates translate into big league success, but with a seven strikeout effort he becomes an intriguing option in AL-only leagues, especially in spacious McAfee Coliseum. 

Another youngster coming off of a hot spring, the Brewers’ Manny Parra, predictably put forth a nice effort against the punchless Giants. Unlike Eveland, Parra certainly projects as mixed league option immediately and can be used against most offenses. He certainly has the ability to be the #3 starters this season on the Brewers and has always maintained solid strikeout rates in the minor leagues. 

The Pirates have placed short stop Jack Wilson on the DL.  They plan on calling up their best infield prospect Brian Bixler, who will play in Wilson’s absence and can contribute steals to your NL only squad while doing so.

Last but not least, if you’re already hunting for spot starters due to injuries (a certain Met comes to mind) your options are pretty limited for Tuesday.  Obviously, consider Johnny Ceuto vs. Brewers as this kid is the real deal.  As is often said in fantasy circles, run, and do not walk, to pick him up.  Other options include youngster Jair Jurrjens, and Randy Wolf vs. the absolutely anemic Giants offense. 

Good luck in your leagues this week!

 

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