Is the pack mentality right on Marcus Thames?

A couple of years ago, James Surowiecki had a best-selling book, The Wisdom of Crowds. It’s about how large groups of people will collectively make the best decisions. It’s the same principal as the “Ask the Audience” feature of Who Wants to be a Millionaire. Having a diverse cross-section of opinion will drown out the individual errors that even the smartest are susceptible to. This principle works in fantasy sports as well. A million fantasy owners are collectively smarter than one expert.

In your internet-based league, you probably have a tool called “Most Added.” This will give you a list, by position, of which players are the most popular free agent/waiver pickups. This information can help you spot a trend before your competitors do. Negative trends are also useful. If everyone is dropping Max Scherzer then there must be a reason.

Note that the adds for starting pitchers can get skewed from weekly H2H leagues. A two-start pitcher next week will get an automatic bump in ownership this week. That increase is not necessarily indicative of quality.

Let’s look at players with the fast growing ownership in recent days. Let’s see if the judgment of the crowd is worth copying (for better) or if the popular pickups are merely patches (for worse).

For Better

Marcus Thames, First Base / Outfield, Detroit Tigers: Thames is the hottest pickup in fantasy these days. He has five homers in his last four games. Overall he is hitting the long ball at a Ruthian pace: once every 9.4 at-bats. The hot streak will buy him more time in the Detroit starting lineup – which has been an issue for Thames in his career. He has never had more than 348 at-bats in a season. Thames, 31, is unlikely to hit much better than his current .257. But he does have power — lots of it. He is worth riding while he gets at-bats and until the hot streak subsides.

Chase Headley, Third Base / Outfield, San Diego Padres: Next to Thames, Headley is the hottest pickup. The 24-year-old was just recalled from Triple-A Portland. A natural third baseman, Headley will play outfield since Kevin Kouzmanoff is ensconced at third. He should get a dual-position rating in most leagues, which is helpful. Headley had a cup of coffee with the Padres earlier in the season, when Kouzmanoff was hurt. He only hit .222 with San Diego and the slump carried over to the minors when he was sent down. Headley got hot in May, bringing his Triple-A stats up to .305 with 13 homers. Headley is a must in any keeper league and worth a flier in other leagues due to his upside and versatility.

Luke Scott, Outfield, Baltimore Orioles: This month Scott started to attract the attention of fantasy owners. He is hitting .381 with five home runs and a 1.245 OPS in June. Scott is a streaky hitter, but as long as the Orioles keep him in the lineup, he will hit 25-30 home runs. Scott is better in Roto leagues than H2H. If the Orioles face a couple of lefties in a given week, Scott is likely to sit against both. He hits .216 against southpaws versus .296 against righties.

Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Colorado Rockies: Tulowitzki has been out since April with a strained quadriceps. His ownership is climbing back up now that he is on a minor league rehab assignment. He could be back as soon as this weekend. Don’t let his April stats (.152 avg.) bother you. He gets a fresh start now. Tulowitzki, 23, has the potential to be one of the elite shortstops in the game.

Clint Barmes, Second / Short / Third, Colorado Rockies: Barmes caught a tough break when a knee injury put him on the DL in May. Barmes was hitting .343 when he went down. Tulowitzki will send Omar Quintanilla to the bench and Barmes should replace Jeff Baker at second, as early as this weekend. Barmes was a .289 career hitter before two consecutive poor seasons dropped his lifetime mark to .263. Barmes’ versatility is the key to his value in fantasy. You can plug him into several positions and he will hit enough as a middle infielder.

Ryan Garko, First Base, Cleveland Indians: Garko got off to a poor start in 2008 and was hitting only .228 on May 31. Since then Garko has raised his average over thirty points and his fantasy ownership is climbing along with the batting average. Garko, 27, is a better second-half performer, and that’s good. He plays at a loaded position, first base, and that’s bad. By the end of the season you should get a .280 / 20 HR / 90 RBI season out of Garko. Not great at first base, but in AL-only leagues that’s OK.

Ben Francisco, Outfield, Cleveland Indians: Francisco has been a pleasant surprise for Cleveland. His fantasy ownership is picking up lately. He is hitting .313 with a .847 OPS. If Francisco hit with just a little more power, stole some bases, or played another position, then he would be more highly recommended.

For Worse

Gerald Laird, Catcher, Texas Rangers: The guy with the Humpty-Dumpty face was not on fantasy radar when the baseball season began. A torrid June makes Laird a popular pickup in fantasy leagues. Laird is hitting nearly .400 in June to raise his average to .293. Unfortunately Laird does not have much power – he has four home runs in 174 at-bats. Laird’s career high is nine home runs in 2007. Laird’s lifetime numbers are pedestrian, so this hot streak is unlikely to last. He is only good for a temporary fix at catcher.

Kelly Shoppach, Catcher, Cleveland Indians: Shoppach had the misfortune of playing behind a perennial All Star, Victor Martinez. Shoppach, 28, has some power: four home runs in 94 at-bats, which is four more than Martinez had before he went on the DL. Shoppach will start for Cleveland while Martinez’ elbow heals. The timeline for Martinez’ return is sometime in August. Shoppach hits for a low average (lifetime mark of .239) and does not walk enough (lifetime OBP is .293). You probably have better options at catcher on your free agent wire.

Mike Aviles, Shortstop, Kansas City Royals: Aviles’ arrival ends Kansas City’s revolving door at shortstop. Aviles, 27, is hitting a robust .341. However, Aviles was not considered much of a prospect before this season and his minor league career was less than spectacular. He started the 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons at Triple-A before finally getting a chance with the big club in June. The bottom line is that with his pedigree, Aviles is unlikely to continue the hot hitting in the majors.