There are few easy outings from Brian Wilson.

It was an especially uneventful week on the reliever front with no jobs changing hands and no major injuries to report. This week we will focus on a subset of closers that elicit consternation, anxiety and increased cardiac activity: the “heart attack” closers. We have all had them and in reality, we all need them. This exercise is attempting to identify those closers who have a higher probability of losing their job via under/non-performance rather than via injury. An opening caveat is that we will exclude Todd Jones and Joe Borowski from our examination. That ground has been well tread upon and it is evident to all fantasy owners that a) they have among the worst, if not the worst peripheral numbers of any nominal closers, b) their bullpens contain ready replacements and c) don’t count on them losing their job anytime soon. Also excluded from this exercise are newly anointed closers (e.g. Mike Gonzalez, Ryan Franklin etc.) and we will instead focus on those who have been closers since Opening day and are considered to be “established” in their role. We will take it from most likely to least likely to relinquish the role because of their performance or lack thereof:

C.J. Wilson

In reality, this has to be the hottest seat of any closer. All the elements are present: manager has not shown support in his comments to the media repeatedly, a former “name” closer present in a setup role and subpar underlying numbers. With an ERA approaching 5.00 and WHIP approaching 1.50, it is clear that Wilson’s performance is far below what one considers acceptable for a closer. Wilson’s ascension to closer had more to do with the lack of favorable options in the Ranger pen than anything else. Given manager Ron Washington’s reservations about Wilson, it seems likely that Eddie Guardado is poised to grab the role following Wilson’s next stretch of futility and/or spectacular implosion. Guardado has not been outstanding but with a sub-1.00 WHIP, he has shown a much better ability to limit baserunners than Wilson has this season. He is a must-add for AL-only pens and can be stashed in mixed if possible.

Brian Wilson

Our second Wilson, Brian, has also been underwhelming in his first full season as closer even though he has converted the same amount of saves as such elite relievers as Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria and Joe Nathan. The main problem with his performance, as with C.J. Wilson, is the large amount of baserunners that have been allowed. Fortunately for Wilson there is little to no legitimate competition present in the San Francisco pen. The likely choice to take over for Wilson would be Tyler Walker, another pitcher who fails to inspire confidence and has an established track record of mediocrity. He is not a pitcher that one could recommend with any kind of confidence even if he ascends to the top slot.

Jose Valverde

Valverde’s performance this year is in keeping with his track record: tons of strikeouts, periods of ineffectiveness and plenty of baserunners. As with Wilson in San Francisco, there is little to zero competition for this slot (depending on your opinion of…gulp…Doug Brocail). Another factor working in Valverde’s favor is the hefty price that Houston paid to Arizona for his services. This year seems to figuring into Valverde’s up/down career cycle. His 2008 season is looking more like his 2006 season (5.84 ERA/1.46 WHIP) than his 2007 season (2.66 ERA/1.12 WHIP). It is not likely he loses his grip this season but an implosion cannot be ruled out as it has happened plenty of times in the past.

Trevor Hoffman

It may be a little surprising to see the surefire Hall of Famer on this list but his degradation as closer is pretty apparent. He has been, at best, the second best reliever in the Padres pen for the last season and a half (Heath Bell being the best). While Hoffman has not been excessively hittable, he has shown a definite proclivity for allowing the longball this season. He has yielded five home runs in just 26 innings this season after allowing a total of eight over his previous 120 innings. Given his iconic status in San Diego, he would need a complete and sustained meltdown to lose the role he has held for so long. As opposed to these other candidates, he is the only closer who is setup by an elite reliever who could undoubtedly step in and provide above average rates.

Huston Street

It may seen nitpicky to have him on this list as most of his underlying numbers have been strong but as we sit here today his ERA is above 4 and like Hoffman, he has been prone to the home run ball. He has allowed 6 in just over 34 innings pitched after allowing only nine over the preceding 120 innings. As a strong candidate to be traded, this is a situation to watch. The return last week of Santiago Casilla and the impending return from injury of Joey Devine gives the Athletics a few intriguing options to replace Street in the event of a deal.

Tier One: The Elite Closers

Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees

Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox

Joe Nathan – Minnesota Twins

Kerry Wood – Chicago Cubs

Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals

Billy Wagner – New York Mets

Brad Lidge – Philadelphia Phillies

Francisco Rodriguez – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Tier Two: Your Average Joes

Jon Rauch – Washington Nationals

Troy Percival – Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Capps – Pittsburgh Pirates

Takashi Saito – Los Angeles Dodgers

Jose Valverde – Houston Astros

Brandon Lyon – Arizona Diamondbacks

Bobby Jenks – Chicago White Sox

Brian Fuentes – Colorado Rockies

Trevor Hoffman – San Diego Padres

Huston Street – Oakland Athletics

B.J. Ryan – Toronto Blue Jays

George Sherrill – Baltimore Orioles

Francisco Cordero – Cincinnati Reds

Tier Three: Looking Over Their Shoulders

Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants

Kevin Gregg – Florida Marlins

Salomon Torres – Pittsburgh Pirates

C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers

Todd Jones – Detroit Tigers

Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals

Mike Gonzalez – Atlanta Braves

Brandon Morrow – Seattle Mariners

Joe Borowski – Cleveland Indians

Top Five Middle Relievers

Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs

Hong-Chih Kuo – Los Angeles Dodgers

Taylor Buchholz – Colorado Rockies

Heath Bell – San Diego Padres

Scott Linebrink – Chicago White Sox