The Brewers made the first big splash in the trade market, landing the biggest name pitcher available. |
Who Will Make the Playoffs and Who Should Dump Salary?
“The Playoffs...The Playoffs…You’re talking about the Playoffs?” -Jim Mora
Milwaukee Brewers
They sweep Pittsburgh, and are currently 1st in the wildcard race. With injuries to the young stud Yovanni Gallardo, and the lost depth without Chris Capuano they were vulnerable, until the addition of C.C. Sabathia in a deal with the Indians on Sunday. They gave up almost nothing, holding on to their two most prized prospects, and get a reigning Cy Young award winner in return. Matt LaPorta (.288, 20 HR) at 23 is good, but he is not Ryan Braun-batting .342… call-him-up-and-tear-up-the-league-good, but he does have good potential (need I remind you his stats are from Double A). However, Sabathia’s numbers don’t do him justice; He is a durable, inning consuming workhorse. Sabathia has been on fire over his last 14 starts (2.16 ERA) after a rocky first month and is averaging 7.43 innings per outing. Combine that with a 109 to 20 walk ratio and they can almost smell the playoffs right? Well, in ERA the Brew Crew is 2nd in the NL over the first 6 innings (their starters) and 15th in the NL over the last three innings. So maybe they addressed the wrong problem. The good news is J.J Hardy has raised his batting average .30 points and doubled his HR total in the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers
They missed out on C.C. Sabathia and have Rafael Furcal out for two months. If they don’t watch out Nomar Garciaparra will be out too…we know what happens when he plays SS. July has been good to them, so far they are 5-1. Right now they are at the point where they need to decide whether to go for it, or work towards next year. Likely we could see Juan Uribe, or Jack Wilson in their line-up soon, as they look like the best quick options for a good price. Meaning they don’t give up too much and still end up a few wins away, cussing all Winter Break. Andre Ethier has hit .444 and has 3 home runs in that 6 game span. Their ERA is best in the NL and it will be interesting to watch if Chan Ho Park will continue to make Rick Honeycutt seem like a pitching coach with Leo Mazzone type revival skills.
Florida Marlins
I was sold on the Marlins until this Friday and Saturday. You know the Marlins, they suck 4 out of 5 years and then win it all. I don’t know if that will be the same story, at least not with Kevin Gregg as their closer. We all know very well, to win at this level you need bullpen, and they went through this closer experiment last year, ending up with Armando Benitez, which is never a good idea. If they are going to make it they need consistency out of Scott Olson and Justin Miller and a legitimate option to replace Mark Hendrickson, your ace should never have batters hitting at a .292 career clip against them. I have faith in this team though. I think they have the same amount of talent as the Rays; they just need to figure their kinks out…and fast.
Cincinnati Reds
They are streaking…but the playoffs are not going to happen. They need to dump Adam Dunn, mainly because they consistently have an overloaded outfield. The drop from Dunn to Corey Patterson isn’t much. Moreover, Dunn doesn’t really benefit them when the team is batting .247 and Edwin Encarnacion (hitting behind him) is batting at the same clip. They have an amazing young group with Jay Bruce, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Bill Bray…the pieces around them are just lackluster.
New York Mets
If any team is in trouble it is the Mets. They are currently at .500 and there is no quick fix, a slew of injuries have got them there, but it is no excuse. On paper this team should be unstoppable. Other than at catcher, they have an ex-All-Star at every position-- recently too, Castillo has not been an all-star in 3-4 years, and he is the least recent. Their pitching staff is bolstered with Johan Santana and the return of Pedro Martinez, so simply put their downfall is their morale. No doubt the people that repeatedly get injured are the “winners,” (players who always have a knack of being on winning teams). Hopefully, come August the “15 day DL syndrome” will pass, and this team will set itself up with a miraculous winning streak, which because of the aforementioned, is almost expected. Carlos Beltran has started the month at .174, look to him to hit more, if this team is going to turn it around.
Houston Astros
This should be the most interesting team come the trading deadline. They have some big name veterans in their line-up that desperate teams could be willing to throw some good prospects out for. With their minor league system being old to say the least, it would be smart to get some good young players and allow them to develop while giving the current youngsters a chance to see who is worth keeping. The Central Division teams have a lot of depth for the most part, making it difficult to win. Just as Cleveland realized in the AL Central, it should be just a matter of time until the same thinking dawns on this organization.
Arizona Diamonbacks
This team looks a lot like the Diamondbacks of old, except they are missing a Luis Gonzalez. Once Brandon Webb gets over his slump,(that’s all it is, as pitchers of his caliber don’t have bad seasons….just months) they will have the best 1-2 punch in baseball. However, they need to add a good veteran outfielder at the deadline. Raul Ibanez would be great, they need someone to pressure Justin Upton and Chris Young to feel like their spot is in jeopardy, and someone to lead the outfield like Orlando Hudson leads the infield. This teams’ strengths are pitching and defense, which I hear are important, and getting a little jolt of offense will allow them to win a lot of games.
Colorado Rockies
Mix the Reds situation, Astros situation, Mets situation, and Padres situation and you have the Rockies. They have young talent, they have some pieces teams would love, their key players are injured, but their young talent isn’t playing up to par. Matt Holliday should be the last option to trade, but the way great young players just seem to pop up lately it might be worth the risk. Other than Yankees, and maybe the Angels, no one is going to be able to afford Todd Helton. Garrett Atkins could draw some attention but the best idea would be to trade Aaron Cook. Trading a good Rockies pitcher should be a sin, which is why Cook can go. He had a good April, at best he is a good number #3 starter and what they will be able to get for him is much more than they will lose. Trade Atkins if price is right; just don’t offer anyone contract extensions because the trend shows they will probably suck come 2009.
Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs
They both have teams breathing down their neck and it is close enough to where a matter of three wins could be the difference between 1st place and 3rd place in their divisions. The Phillies need to be scared; the Cubs just need to be the Cubs…Run away from the Billy Goat. They could both use some role players; the Phillies could use a good arm. Everybody seems to be playing .500 ball, so for now it seems like the division is theirs to lose until a team establishes themselves as solid. (Look for Cardinals, Met, and Braves as always) Right now, the Cubbies and Phills are the only teams without weak spots and baseball is a lot like Jenga – a team with holes can go on a winning streak but eventually the holes will catch up with them and it will all fall down. Derek Lee is on fire having multiple hit games in 5 out of the last 6. When he starts seeing the ball well, it tends to evolve into home runs and RBI. The Phillies are about to get more out of Kyle Kendrick, as he is going from one good start, one bad start, to two good starts one bad start, to three good starts one bad start. When the good starts outweigh the bad starts, it is usually good news.
The teams lost in the middle: Giants, Braves
I don’t see them trading…maybe Aaron Rowand or Mark Kotsay…the Braves right now have successfully beaten the Mets in: “Most players on an injured list.” They both are hitting well 3rd (Braves) and 5th (Giants) in NL; the difference is the Braves can pitch. With almost everyone recognizable on their team injured, except Tim Hudson and Mike Gonzalez. They still hold the 2nd best ERA in the NL, a solid 3.77. Adding a healthy Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton can only help a young staff, and knowing its Braves pitching, suggests the Braves are on the up and up, and well….the Giants are not.
San Diego Padres
They have Jody Gerut to trade, and Brian Giles. Sadly I don’t think it will bring them much. The Padres are good though and don’t need much change - just a do-over at this point. Look for them next year to be in contention with maybe one more big bat and some bits and pieces. However, what they give up now, I think, could be the difference between the NL Champion and a team that doesn’t make the playoffs.
I leave you with this note: The team in contention that picks up Brian Giles will win the NL championship. Remember Larry Walker when the Cardinals won it? Same story here. He walks…a lot…doesn’t strike out, and plays good defense (that’s just a bonus). Put him in front of your big swingers and you potentially get a guy on base or at least give need protection to your big boys. It’s worth the big price tag.
