Ryan Church is a textbook example of a second half surge preceding a break out season.

When fantasy players draft their teams in the spring, for the most part they are working off of projections to decide which players they want for their team. There are any number of sources for projections available online and in print. Some are more accurate than others, but they all admit up front, that the prediction of statistical outcomes cannot possibly compensate for the human aspect of sport, injuries, managerial decisions, or unexplainable slumps.

One way to project a player’s future performance is to look into their statistical history to find growth and improvement in some of the skill-oriented stats that point to a change in the approach of the player towards his job. Specifically, touts will compare first half statistics to second half statistics to see if a player has experienced positive growth in particular skills that could portend growth in future production.

The general thinking is that players, who have experienced growth in some of the skill stats during the second half of the season, could then be headed for a major breakout in the next season. I thought it might be interesting to test this thinking out, by looking at players who experienced growth in the second half of last season, and looking to see if they really did “break out” in the first half of this season. Is it really possible to predict a first half break out in the next season, after a big second half the season before? Let us go to the numbers.

For Better

1. Ryan Church, outfielder, NY Mets: Church had a terrific second half in 2007, increasing his batting average by more than 30 points after hitting just .259 in the first half. In the second half, he matched his extra base totals of the first half, but did it in 100 less at bats. Church dramatically reduced his ground ball outs, and became a more consistent line drive hitter. This skill growth translated into a red-hot start to this season for Church. He was batting .307, hitting home runs at a better rate than at any other time in his career, and headed towards a break out season until a concussion derailed him in June. Church is a textbook example of skill improvement leading to increased production.
2. Conor Jackson, first baseman, Arizona Diamondbacks: In the second half of last season, Jackson’s batting average surged upward 42 points, he doubled his home run production from the first half, and experienced vastly increased extra base totals, all in fewer at bats compared to the first half of the season. Jackson was one of the hottest hitters in baseball during the first month of this season, batting .343 with five home runs, and .430 OBP. After a swoon in May, he picked up the pace in June, and has been hot since. His power numbers have dropped a bit, but there is no reason to think he won’t have a big second half.
3. Garrett Atkins, third baseman, Colorado Rockies: Atkins had a huge second half surge last season, batting 90 points higher in the second half, while matching his first half power totals, and increasing his run production in fewer second half at bats. This season Atkins has been on fire, experiencing a career year at the plate thus far. He is on a pace to exceed his career highs in home runs and RBI, while maintaining a batting average in the .310 -.320 range.
4. Luke Scott, outfielder, Baltimore Orioles: Scott enjoyed a 70 point surge in batting average, along with a dramatic increase in extra base hits, and a boost in home run production in the second half of 2007 as a part time player with the Astros. Over the winter he was traded to the Orioles, where he is now a full time player enjoying the fruits of last season’s skill growth. While his average is down a bit, possibly explained by the change in leagues, the power numbers have stayed. He is on a pace to double his best season of home runs, greatly increase his overall power numbers, and finally become a reliable fantasy outfielder.
5. Jayson Werth, outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies: Werth has been tagged for a break out season for several years, though his big arrival has been delayed by a series of bad luck injuries that have kept him off the field. He finally started putting it all together in the second half of last season, when his average surged nearly 90 points, and the power that he’s always had finally started to emerge. Though he is not setting the world on fire with his production just yet, he is on a pace to exceed his best season by a long way, and if he continues to hit as he has in the first half, he will finally shed the “unfulfilled potential” tag that has dogged him his entire career.

For Worse

1. Edwin Encarnacion, third baseman, Cincinnati Reds: Encarnacion batted .309 over the second half of last season and saw his line drive rate and power production surge after a terrible first half. Slow but steady growth in the skill categories pointed to a break out in 2008. While Encarnacion has enjoyed an increase in home run rates, his overall production at the plate has been a disappointment thus far. This is certainly not the break out season that everyone seemed to anticipate from him, though he still has time to turn things around.
2. Jeremy Hermida, outfielder, Florida Marlins: In 2007, Hermida started showing signs that the big time power hitter in him was ready to make the scene. In the second half he had a 60-point improvement in batting average, and a dramatic doubling of his extra base hit and power production numbers. Surely he was a lock for a break out 2008 season based on that. Despite finally being healthy all during the first half, the promise of last season’s surge has not translated into increased productivity this season. He is currently batting just .264, with only nine home runs.
3. Wily Mo Pena, outfielder, Washington Nationals: After spending the first half of 2007 languishing on the Boston Red Sox bench, Pena was traded to the Nationals and became their every day right fielder. Over the second half, he batted .293, and hit a home run every 15 at bats or so, finally getting the chance to show what he could do with regular playing time. This season’s promise to be Pena’s arrival on the scene as a big time power threat has been a complete bust, derailed by injury. Even now, Pena has returned to action, but is barely over the Mendoza line, and clearly not producing anywhere near his potential. We will likely have to wait until next season to see Pena’s legendary power on display.
4. Robinson Cano – second baseman, NY Yankees: After an average first half in 2007, Cano surged to bat .343 over the second half, and ended up having a career season, with 19 home runs (13 in the second half), and 97 RBI. It certainly appeared that his 2008 would be yet another highly productive season for the young second baseman. However, Cano got off to an extremely slow start this season, his batting average below .200 until mid May, and his power numbers down dramatically with only six home runs so far. He is finally turning things around, batting .313 over the last month, but his surge of last season promised so much more that one cannot help but be disappointed in Cano from a fantasy standpoint.
5. Aaron Hill, infielder, Toronto Blue Jays: Hill had a huge second half last season, batting .320, a 55 point improvement over his first half. He also matched his extra base output of the first half in 50 less second half at bats. All signs pointed to a break out type season in 2008. However, his production in April and May was not anywhere near the levels his second half promised, and injury has cut short any chance of a break out in 2008.

John Rakowsi is taking a well-earned vacation. He will return to For Better, For Worse shortly.