Willy Taveras averages a stolen base for every two hits, making him the most likely stolen base leader in the Majors this season.

As we hit the All-Star break and start to take inventory of where teams are at, both in the Major Leagues as well as our fantasy rosters, I wanted to throw out my end of the year predictions for the Top 25 base stealers. My predictions are based upon several statistical factors including stolen bases per at bat, stolen bases per hit, success rate thus far this season, as well as the stipulation that they had to have at least 10 stolen bases and 100 at bats to date. I also incorporated a regression in number of steals (approximately 20%) to account for the wear and tear of a full Major League season.

Projected Stolen Base Leaders for 2008
 
TOP 10

Willy Taveras, OF, COL ~ Long thought to be a platoon candidate, injuries to the Colorado outfielders have allowed Taveras to get enough at bats to be on top of this list as the potential stolen base leader. The addition of increased batting average over June/July has allowed him to stay on the active roster. With a success rate of 90.7%, 39 total stolen bases thus far, and an average of a stolen base for every two hits (54.17%), Taveras is on pace to lead the league in stolen bases at the end of the season.

My Predicted Total: 62

Juan Pierre, OF, LAD ~ Another player who is thought of as a one-hit wonder statistically, Juan Pierre was originally projected as a fourth or fifth outfielder on the Dodgers’ depth charts. Manager Joe Torre has seen otherwise, as Pierre, prior to injury, had amassed 277 at bats and stolen 35 bases. Barring any setbacks upon his return from injury and an 83.3% success rate, I believe Pierre will continue his 46.05% stolen base/hit ratio.

My Predicted Total: 56

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS ~ Although his perfect streak is over, stealing 35 bases thus far and an equal to Juan Pierre in success rate (83.3%), Ellsbury appears to be the real deal, speed-wise. Ellsbury still has to contend with Coco Crisp for playing time, but still has the opportunity to swipe over 50 steals this season.

My Projected Total: 56

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA ~ There is not much good going on in Seattle, but Ichiro Suzuki continues to rack up stolen bases. Coming in fourth at the break with 34 stolen bases, he will not likely hit his 200 hit plateau as we have all come to expect, but he will surely increase his stolen base statistic considering his success rate thus far (91.9%). He is the only player that is able to truly manufacture runs for the Mariners.

My Predicted Total: 54

Michael Bourn, OF, HOU ~ Despite his .218 batting average, his ability to move into scoring position has netted Michael Bourn 326 at bats. Bourn got off to a torrid start and has only recently started to cool off. Ironically, his batting average has actually increased since June 15. Bourn is another player that nets nearly a stolen base per every two at bats (45.1%) so one can imagine that as he fine-tunes his plate presence, it could significantly increase his stolen base potential.

My Predicted Total: 51

Jose Reyes, SS, NYM ~ Thus ends the outfielders run at the top in the stolen base category. Jose Reyes had a difficult six weeks (May to Mid-June); however, since then he has absolutely been on fire, both at the plate and on the base paths. Reyes amassed 32 stolen bases in the first half, grabbing a stolen base with every four hits (26.9%). The problem with Reyes may be his manager’s discretion regarding when to run, or the inability of the next batter to delay the catcher’s throw as he has a success rate of just 73.2%, leading the list so far by getting caught 10 times. With all that being said, he still should total some significant stolen bases.

My Predicted Total: 51

Brian Roberts, 2B, BAL ~ Brian Roberts is definitely reaping the benefits of hitting behind Nick Markakis. For one, he is seeing more pitches to hit (.297 BA), and with the pitcher more focused on pitching to Markakis, he has been able to grab 27 bases. Roberts is drafted in fantasy leagues for this statistic, primarily, and I believe that he will not disappoint this year. As with all predictions, it is based on the premise that no significant injury occurs, which is all but likely as Roberts has shown over the past few seasons.

My Projected Total: 43

B.J. Upton, OF, TAM ~ With only six homeruns so far this season, B.J. Upton may not be the five-tool athlete you thought you were drafting at the beginning of the season. With 56 runs 44 runs batted in, 27 steals, and a .276 batting average, I can honestly say, “one cannot complain”. Coming in at number eight on my overall, end of season projections list for stolen bases may console you some. I believe that Upton, who steals a base every three at bats (29.7%) at a fairly solid success rate (71.1%), will play a vital role in your fantasy teams’ ability to win on a consistent basis.

My Projected Total: 43

Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI ~ There is no doubt that his early season injury hampered his prowess in this category. He has enjoyed a perfect success rate, stealing 24 bases in 24 attempts, in upwards of 100 less at bats than other players that are higher on this list. I could not imagine him continuing to net every stolen base he attempts, and I am not certain my 20% regression algorithm will hold up in Rollins’ case. But I believe a second half increase in batting average will serve to also increase his stolen base totals, but I’ve to go with what I have, to stay consistent throughout the list.

My Projected Total: 38

Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX ~ What can a season without any health issues do for a player with talent? Ian Kinsler is a leader in the clubhouse, and a leader on the base paths, stealing 23 bases to date. Kinsler has shown that he has exceptional base running instincts, getting caught only once so far (95.8% success rate). With 14 homeruns, he is also displaying the most power on the list in the top 10. I think that his numbers will likely decrease as the season progresses, partly because he has never played a full season in his career, and partly because of the amount of work he has done (398 at bats).

My Projected Total: 37

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