2007 Tigers Team Preview






2007 Team Finish: 95-67 – 2nd Place in the AL Central (AL Wildcard)


Key Additions: OF/DH Gary Sheffield (trade), RHP Jose Mesa.

Key Losses: None.

The Detroit Tigers enter the 2007 season in a role they haven’t been in for twenty years – favorites.  After an unbelievable Cinderella season that saw the Tigers reach the World Series for the first time since 1984, the Tigers came into spring training with swagger.  Last season Manager Jim Leyland completely reversed Detroit’s oppressive culture of losing, and now he has the team believing that they’re as good as anyone in the league. Led by future Hall of Famer Pudge Rodriguez, Detroit's playing with a chip on their shoulders, and they expect to be back in the Fall Classic come October. The Tigers lost no one of consequence, but rather jumped into the offseason fray early, sending a couple of pitching prospects to the Yankees in exchange for the one thing they truly lacked in ’06, an impact bat for the middle of the lineup.  Gary Sheffield replaces a mess of mediocrity at the DH position, and will bat fifth right in between Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.  While there are some concerns with the rotation tiring out after last years run, the Tigers have more than enough depth to maintain.  The real concern for Detroit will be the surging Indians, and if Ron Gardenhire ever gets smart in Minnesota and uses his young stud pitching, the Twins could challenge again down the stretch.  Key players to put on your radar for this season include the aforementioned Sheffield, Marcus Thames, Carlos Guillen, Jeremy Bonderman, Fernando Rodney and Andrew Miller.

In The Field

Catcher

Ivan Rodriguez’s defense hasn’t slipped much, but his offensive production has been steadily dropping off over the last three seasons. Catcher’s in their mid-thirties don’t typically work out well for offensive-minded fantasy owners. Pudge’s HR/F ratio has dropped consistently over the last three seasons from 13.9% during his great 2004 campaign, to a rather pedestrian 10.5% in 2006.  Don’t expect him to pick that back up anytime soon.  He should continue to register 500+ ABs and hit close to .300, but his SLG% isn’t likely to top .440 ever again. 

First Base

Just after he was thrust into a pennant race at the end of last season, Sean Casey seemingly forgot how to hit.  As a Tiger, “The Mayor” looked frustrated at the plate, posting a very un-Casey-like .286 OBP, walking just 10 times in 196 plate appearances.  He doesn’t bang out XBH like he used to, but if he can regain his high contact and walk rates, he should at least get on base enough to score some runs. Casey is not a guy you target on draft day. There are simply too many other options at 1B that supply the power you expect from your infield corners.

Second Base

Placido Polanco puts the ball in play at an astounding rate (94% CR), hitting ground ball after ground ball.  Unfortunately, this formula hasn’t exactly worked out for him, as he hit into 18 double plays last season, in just 495 ABs.  He’s still a serviceable big league hitter, who plays good defense and rarely strikes out. He should be moved down in the order, and utilized for what he is, a pretty good contact hitter with no power whatsoever. However, serviceable slap hitters with no speed have no place on a fantasy baseball roster.

Third Base

Looking at his contact rate, it looks as if Brandon Inge reversed any an adjustment he made in 2005, as he stopped worrying about drawing walks, and went back to just swinging at whatever he saw. The results were a diminished BB/K rate, but a big spike in power. It’s unlikely that Inge will ever learn to be more selective, but if he can post SLG% totals up around .460, he’s worth a corner slot.  You just need to get a batting average anchor to level him out.  For what it’s worth, he’s also one of the rare Tigers hitters that seems to hit better at Comerica than on the road. 

Shortstop

Carlos Guillen is the best kept secret in baseball.  He posted 65 XBH in just 622 PA, while stealing 20 bases, and posting a .400 OBP last season.  It looks as if the spacious Comerica outfield has done him well, as he posted a .547 SLG% at home.  He’s one of the few players in the game that hits the ball hard every time he puts it into play, as evidenced by his continually-high BaBIP. Only concernes about his durability keep him from passing Derek Jeter as the top offensive shortstop in the American League.  .300-20-90 with a .900 OPS isn’t just a possibility…it’d be an extreme letdown if he didn’t produce at least that well.

Out in the Grass

Left Field

No matter where you slot Craig Monroe into the lineup, he’ll hit with authority.  He doesn’t walk much, and struggles at home (the typical Comerica-type), but he’s a virtual lock for an XBH every 11 PA or so, and should post a near 15% HR/F ratio.  You’d like for him to swing less at the first pitch, but Monroe is one of the best mid-to-late round consistency plays in the draft pool. He’s ideally suited for your fourth OF slot, and will likely come at a discount.

Center Field

Curtis Granderson struggled down the stretch in his first full-season in the big leagues, which could have been a result of the longer schedule, but he posted a solid rookie season nonetheless.  At just 26 years old, he’s still learning selectivity at the plate, but he still managed 59 XBH in his first full season.  The big concern with Granderson is his strikeout rate, which is out of control, and his inability to hit a curveball.  If nothing else changes in his approach, he’ll need to start running the bases again to justify the investment.

Right Field

Magglio Ordonez finally stayed healthy for a full season, posting 500+ AB for the first time since 2003.  His play was reminiscent of his prime years with the  ChiSox, though his power dropped dramatically in front of home fans in Detroit. His SLG% was almost 100 points higher on the road.  He remains an injury risk, which boosts the value of Marcus Thames and Gary Sheffield.  He’s still valuable, but at this point in his career, he’s closer to Craig Monroe than the Maggs of old.

Designated Hitter

An April 29th collision with Shea Hillenbrand at first base caused Gary Sheffield soft tissue damage to his left wrist.  His first base experiment with the Yankees at the end of last season really didn’t go that well, as evidenced by his .776 OPS in nine games. Sheffield still has plenty of upside, especially now that he’s a DH. He still kills left-handers, putting up a .948 OPS against them, and his swing looks to have regained it’s quickness.  He’s still going to post great BB/K rates to go along with a HR/F ratio around 15%. Every time he makes contact with the ball, he’s likely to get on-base.  He absolutely scorches the ball every time up there. Bid with confidence, but expect a drop in his power numbers at the Copa.