Starting Pitching

Projected Rotation

1.    Jeremy Bonderman, RH
2.    Kenny Rogers, LH
3.    Nate Robertson, LH
4.    Justin Verlander, RH
5.    Mike Maroth, LH

I don’t always know what ‘IT’ is, but I can honestly say that there are some guys out there who just have whatever ‘IT’ is, and Jeremy Bonderman has that.  He’s going to really good for a really long time.  He really turned the corner last year, and showed signs of becoming the ace he has long been projected to become.  He strikes out almost a batter per inning, while allowing less than three walks per nine.  His HR/F ratio has decreased in each of the last three seasons, from 15.6% to 10.4%. Kenny Rogers is aging, and isn’t nearly as good as how he pitched in the playoffs last season.  He doesn’t allow too many HRs (who would in that home park?), but his K/9 rates are atrocious.  He’s been extremely lucky in the last couple of seasons, with defenses turning about 72% of batted balls into outs.  Rookie phenom Justin Verlander had stretches of absolute dominance, and if he can avoid wearing down early, he should improve upon his consistency this season. That’s the big question that applies to this entire staff.  Will they feel the effects of pitching so late into the postseason like the White Sox did last season? One thing that separates these Tigers from the Sox however is ridiculous depth.  Should Rogers or Verlander falter, Will Ledezma, top prospect Andrew Miller, Zach Miner, and in a pinch, the explosive Joel Zumaya are more than ready to pick up the slack.

Bullpen

CL: Todd Jones, RH
Setup 1: Fernando Rodney, RH
Setup 2: Joel Zumaya, RH

Todd Jones’ redeeming quality is that he doesn’t allow many homeruns or free passes.  His strikeout rates are diminishing at a frightening pace, but his excellent walk rates have remained largely unchanged over the years.  Joel Zumaya is an absolute horse who could excel both as Jones’ replacement, or in the rotation.  As long as he’s hitting 102 on the radar gun with movement on his pitches, he’s going to dominate.  Should Jones falter though, look for Fernando Rodney to get the first shot at closing out games for the Tigers. He has filled in admirably when called upon over the last two seasons, and makes for an excellent target for a cheap seven to ten saves late in the draft.  If you draft Jones, getting Rodney for protection is a must.

Sleeper

Although Gary Sheffield’s name looks laughable under the title of Sleeper, he’s definitely a guy that could exceed projections this season. A lot of owners will be scared off by his wrist injury and his new home park, but Sheffield’s swing is as sweet as ever, and moving to DH could extend his career another three years.  One thing is sure about the top of Detroit’s lineup: they all know how to get on base.  Sheffield won’t have to hit 40 bombs to rack up a ton of RBI’s hitting behind Polanco, Pudge, and Maggs, and hitting in front of Carlos Guillen should keep pitchers honest. Don’t sleep on this one.

Bust

Brandon Inge is one of my favorite players to watch, and no one plays with more intensity and desire.  But within the context of a fantasy lineup, the 20 to 25 homeruns aren’t worth the dreadful batting average.  He’ll be drafted with the hopes that 2006 was just the beginning of a power spike in Inge’s career, and while that may be the case, that peak likely tops out at 30.  Inge was 7th in HR’s for third basemen in 2006, but that stat is deceiving, as there are at least 11 better players overall at the position going into 2007.

Top Prospect

Andrew Miller has the makings of a legitimate major league ace, and he wasn’t nearly as bad as the ERA posted in his short stint in the big leagues last season would have you believe.  He’ll begin the season in the minors so he can continue to get starts in. He could do well in the pen right now but with Rogers’ age, questions about Maroth’s recovery, and concerns about overusing Verlander last season, the Tigers are best served getting Miller innings and building his stamina.  Cameron Maybin is a five-tool center fielder who hit .304 with a .387 OBP while swiping 27 bags in A ball last year.  But at just 20 years old, he’s a few years away, and he needs to work on cutting down the strikeouts (116 in 385 ABs) before he’ll be ready to push Granderson over to one of the corners.

First Off The Bench

Marcus Thames (pronounced “Tims”) hit 26 homeruns in 348 ABs last season and has been working at 1B this spring.  Manager Jim Leyland said that he’d feel perfectly comfortable starting him at first today.  He’ll act as both the fourth outfielder and Sean Casey’s primary backup at first in 2007 and could see better than 400 ABs.