Despite pitching fairly well all season, there are red flags all around Matt Garza making him a candidate to sit this week.
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What defines success?
It sounds like the beginning of some corny inspirational speech, but we’re talking fantasy baseball terms, ladies and gentlemen. And in the case of this column, success defined by pitching numbers.
Picking up extra starters, as I suggest doing and not doing with particular pitchers in this column, will hurt and harm you. If you pick up borderline pitchers for enough starts, some of them are going to flat out sting you at times, even though the point of this column is to take part of the Russian roulette element out of the process. Now according to Yahoo, the league average ERA is 4.25, but then that’s not quite accurate. If that’s your team’s ERA, you’re probably somewhere around dead last in the category. So I decided to take a look at a league that I’m in where pitching is hoarded and carefully implemented. My team unfortunately sits somewhere near the bottom in points in ERA at 3.98, but with a 1.26 WHIP, which is near the top of that category.
Interestingly enough, I took a glance in both 12-team and 10-team leagues, and found that the median ERA and WHIP was roughly the same. An average ERA seems to clock in around 3.90, while the average fantasy WHIP was about 1.29. Ideally, exceeding those averages would be nice for results of this particular column. With that, let’s take a look at the seven recommended starts for last week:
42.1 IP 3 Wins 3.83 ERA 1.47 WHIP 27Ks
Not quite the stellar results produced over the last several weeks. That exceeds the aforementioned average ERA, but stings the WHIP a bit. Paul Byrd, who I noted in last week’s column as a particular good start, entered his outing against Detroit with about a 5.00 ERA, and threw seven and two-thirds innings of scoreless baseball for a win against the Tigers to continue his dominance of them. A.J. Burnett was also among the recommended winners, albeit a sub-par start. No pitcher lasted less than 5 IP however, so that doesn’t hurt. Now, onto the recommended sit results:
44 IP 3 Wins 5.11 ERA 1.46 WHIP 40 Ks
After a mediocre handful of recommended sits last week (six wins and a 1.88 ERA), this was much better to see. Zack Greinke, who has typically been much better at Kauffman Stadium than on the road, produced an effort in Oakland that made these numbers look much better than they could have been, including 11 strikeouts. Props also go to Ervin Santana, who went on the road and shutout the Yankees. I doubt many people saw that one coming, especially for a guy with his track record.
Let’s move on to this week’s slate of games and my recommended starts and sits:
Monday, August 4
Start: Glen Perkins (@ SEA)
Sit: Manny Parra (@ CIN)
Tuesday, August 5
Start: Jonathan Sanchez (vs. ATL)
Sit: Greg Smith (@ TOR)
Wednesday, August 6
Start: Ubaldo Jimenez (vs. WAS)
Sit: Anibal Sanchez (@ PHI)
Thursday, August 7
Start: Zach Miner (vs. CHW)
Sit: Javier Vazquez (@ DET)
Friday, August 8
Start: Doug Davis (vs. ATL)
Sit: Ricky Nolasco (@ NYM)
Saturday, August 9
Start: Oliver Perez (vs. FLA)
Sit: Matt Garza (@ SEA)
Sunday, August 10
Start: Gil Meche (vs. MIN)
Sit: Wandy Rodriguez (@ CIN)
Notes: After a stellar start, Greg Smith has watched his ERA climb about one half run over the last month. Despite two solid starts against Toronto earlier this season, I think they’ll get the best of him this time around. I wouldn’t start him in Detroit either, where they eat lefties for lunch. Where did Ubaldo Jimenez come from, seriously? Someone forgot to tell this guy that Coors Field was a hitter’s park; he sports a slim 2.58 ERA there. Combine that with visiting Washington on Wednesday and you have a gem in the making. Unless the wheels come off, this will probably be the last time you see him recommended in this space, as it goes without saying. Thursday is a short slate of games, but as spot starts go, Zach Miner seems like the best bet. It will only be his fourth start of the season, but he has shut down Chicago once already, and has been much better at Comerica Park this season.