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The New Generation: AAV Player Analysis
The New Generation: AAV Player Analysis
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/26/2007 | Fantasy Baseball - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Average Auction Value is significantly different from ADP

 
             Joe Mauer is the only C currently going for more than $20 at $24.36

Dollar Value for Auction
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

Much like my companion piece on Average Draft Position, the current piece will revolve around analyzing how players are being valued in the 2007 draft season, except this time I will be looking at dollar values instead of the rounds that players are being chosen.

Below, I will take a look at some Average Auction Values (AAV), for players being selected in a 12-team, mixed, 5x5 scenario with $260 dollars to spend. What is AAV? Simply put, AAV is the average dollar amount that a player is being purchased for in the scenario I just painted. Simple as that.

In what follows I will break down some of the highs and lows at each position. Which position is being under or overvalued? What about individual players? Take a read at what follows to find out a few interesting tidbits on players at each position. 

Note: The values listed are courtesy of FantasyAuctioneer.com.


CATCHER

Joe Mauer is the only C currently going for more than $20 at $24.36. The question is; no matter how valuable Mauer’s bat is, especially considering he is a catcher, is he really worth more jack than Vernon Wells or Jason Bay just to name a couple of guys? Not in my mind, especially when you see how fragile a catchers health can be (Mauer is already dealing with a leg injury).

After Mauer there is a bit of a fall off in cost before everyone just plunges off the cliff.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Victor Martinez

CLE

19.80

Brian McCann

ATL

16.84

Ivan Rodriguez

DET

10.71

That’s it. Those are the four C currently going for double digits. There is then a third tier of catchers going for above $5.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Jorge Posada

NYY

8.68

Paul Lo Duca

NYM

8.14

Michael Barrett

CHC

8.14

Kenji Johjima

SEA

7.72

Mike Piazza

OAK

7.05

Ra.Hernandez

BAL

6.70

Russell Martin

LAD

6.02

A.J. Pierzynski

CHW

5.06

Bottom Line: Unless you want to blow your budget on one catcher, why not pick up two solid options instead of one possible stud and a scrub? If you grab Mauer and Greg Zahn for $26, will they out produce Jorge Posada and Michael Barrett? I doubt they will in anything but possibly average, and even so, I could stand to lose .020 batting average points to beat the Mauer and Zahn combo in HR, RBI and Runs while saving about $10.

 
Albert Pujols is the unquestioned #1 overall pick this year at $47.93
FIRST BASE / DH

Everyone knows they can fatten up their numbers at 1B, an on draft day you will have to pay a pretty penny to acquire those numbers (especially if your league counts David Ortiz and Travis Hafner as first basemen).

Albert Pujols appears to be the unquestioned #1 overall pick this year as his cost is a huge $47.93. The #2 guy at 1B is a full $10 less as you will have to spend “only” $37.89 for Ryan Howard. David Ortiz closes the $30+ club at the position with a cost of $34.57.





Here is the second tier of 1B who are going in the $20 region.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Lance Berkman

HOU

29.04

Travis Hafner

CLE

28.43

Mark Teixeira

TEX

28.07

Derrek Lee

CHC

25.56

Paul Konerko

CHW

21.82

Justin Morneau

MIN

21.03

The next guy on the list is Jim Thome ($16.92) who must be falling because he only qualifies at DH because Thome has hit at least 30 HRs in 10 of the last 11 seasons and has put up 100 RBIs in 7 of the past 8 seasons. Curiously, only one other 1B is going for more than $11 and that is Carlos Delgado at $16.51. There is then a mini logjam at the $10 mark.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Prince Fielder

MIL

10.91

Todd Helton

COL

10.77

Jason Giambi

NYY

10.46

N. Garciaparra

LAD

10.41

Lyle Overbay

TOR

10.28

Bottom Line: You can find average and power at 1B, but you will have to pay for it if you want one of the top guys. While grabbing one of the big boppers is advisable, you might be able to grab a UT or CI from 1B at a fairly solid price. Don’t forget to look Todd Helton’s way as there is a decent chance that he will produce enough this year to earn you about $20 worth of value. You can also find a couple of 30+ HR hitters for less than $9 in Adam LaRoche ($8.15) and Richie Sexson ($6.72), so keep an eye on the 1B spot as your draft hits the midway point, there could be some value there.

 
SECOND BASE

At no position, not SP with Johan Santana or 1B with Albert Pujols, is there such a pinnacle reached by a positions top player. Chase Utley ($34.75) currently is going for more than double the next highest 2B (Brian Roberts at $16.40). Only one other 2B is in double digits, and that is Dan Uggla at $10.14. After that, the second basemen are really closely grouped.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Ray Durham

SFG

9.28

Rickie Weeks

MIL

8.59

Tadahito Iguchi

CHW

7.95

Brandon Phillips

CIN

7.15

Ian Kinsler

TEX

6.56

Howie Kendrick

ANA

6.12

Jeff Kent

LAD

5.35

Luis Castillo

MIN

5.25

Josh Barfield

CLE

4.67

 One other player deserves mention here. Marcus Giles is going for $3.14 currently, and while he certainly fell off last season, can you answer me this question: how many 2B scored 85 or more runs last season with 60 or more RBIs and 10 or more SBs? The answer is three. Chase Utley, Tad Iguchi and…Marcus Giles.

 Bottom Line: Now Utley is a great player, but with a $260 budget you simply have to be careful when allocating your funds. If you have Utley at $35 and fill your MI position with Luis Castillo for $5, will you end up with better numbers than a Brian Roberts and Robinson Cano duo (listed 3rd at $15.71)? Don’t forget, you would also have $8 left over as well in this scenario.





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