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The king of the auction hill is
still Alex Rodriguez, the only 3B going for more than 35 dollars at $41.32 |
THIRD BASE
The king of the hill here is
still Alex Rodriguez, the only 3B going for more than 35 dollars at $41.32.
Following A-Rod are the two other 30 dollar performers who are just reaching
their top hitting years in Miguel Cabrera ($34.98) and David Wright ($31.98).
Because 3B is so deep, only two other third sackers have been breaking the $20
barrier (Aramis Ramirez at $26.57 and Chipper Jones at $21.41). Surprisingly,
the 3B who led the position in runs (117) and was second in RBIs (120) is going
for just $18.75. That player is Garrett Atkins by the way. After that, only
five more 3Bs break double digits.
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PLAYER
|
TEAM
|
AAV in $
|
|
Scott Rolen
|
STL
|
16.29
|
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Ryan Zimmerman
|
WAS
|
14.19
|
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Troy Glaus
|
TOR
|
12.97
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Freddy Sanchez
|
PIT
|
12.68
|
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Mark Teahen
|
KCR
|
10.03
|
Question. I know Mark Teahen
had a huge second half
 |
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Teahen had a huge second split last season hitting .318-11-40 in 43 games |
(.318-11-40 in 43 games), and that he will likely
qualify at OF early in the season, but why is he being drafted way ahead of
guys like Eric Chavez ($5.43), Hank Blalock ($5.28) and Morgan Ensberg ($3.79)?
I don’t get it. Heck, he is even almost 100% more expensive than his teammate
phenom Alex Gordon ($5.47), though that is due, at least in part, to the fact
that we didn’t even know until the last week whether or not Gordon would start
the year in Kansas City.
Bottom Line: There is a
lot of value to be had here late, and you might be better off looking to 3B
instead of 1B for your CI. Guys like Blalock and Chavez have a great chance of
hitting .275-25-90 with considerable room to grow. Even later, a guy like Mike
Lowell ($3.08) or Shae Hillenbrand (1.41), while far from being flashy or
having much upside, can be counted on for a .280 season with 75 or more RBIs,
and that is good value late.
SHORTSTOP
Shortstop is top heavy with
7 top-options, though Jose Reyes is considerably out in front of the others.
|
PLAYER
|
TEAM
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AAV in $
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Jose Reyes
|
NYM
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36.14
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Derek Jeter
|
NYY
|
28.53
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Miguel Tejada
|
BAL
|
28.53
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Jimmy Rollins
|
PHI
|
26.37
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Michael Young
|
TEX
|
21.61
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Rafael Furcal
|
LAD
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21.29
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Hanley Ramirez
|
FLA
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19.73
|
There are then only 4 other
SS that are being drafted for even $10.
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PLAYER
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TEAM
|
AAV in $
|
|
Carlos Guillen
|
DET
|
16.30
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Felipe Lopez
|
WAS
|
12.41
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Bill Hall*
|
MIL
|
12.02
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Edgar Renteria
|
ATL
|
10.31
|
*Will play OF this year.
Bottom Line: Now you certainly can go further down this list and
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Stephen Drew adds power to mid-Infield
|
target players such as Orlando Cabrera ($8.05) and Stephen Drew ($5.45), but
really, there is a pretty steep fall off after the top group of players. If you
expect to be competitive, you had better spend big on a SS or you will be out
in the cold. For those of you in leagues with middle infielders (MI), and let’s
face it almost all of you are, you will probably want to look to 2B to fill
that spot.
OUTFIELD
In the OF, there appear to
be 5 top-level targets each going for more than $30.
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PLAYER
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TEAM
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AAV in $
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Alfonso Soriano
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CHC
|
37.65
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Carl Crawford
|
TAM
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36.25
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Vladimir Guerrero
|
ANA
|
34.94
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Carlos Beltran
|
NYM
|
33.22
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Manny Ramirez
|
BOS
|
30.78
|
After that grouping, there
are another 5 OFs between $25 and $30.
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PLAYER
|
TEAM
|
AAV in $
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Ichiro Suzuki
|
SEA
|
27.64
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Grady Sizemore
|
CLE
|
27.41
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Carlos Lee
|
HOU
|
27.22
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Bobby Abreu
|
NYY
|
26.00
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Matt Holliday
|
COL
|
25.53
|
There are 3 more OF’s in the
$24 range (Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones), and then there is a
precipitous falloff as no other OF averages even a $20 bid. In the $10 to $20
range there are only 13 other OFs meaning that there are just 24 OFs going for
$10 or more dollars in the “average” draft.
Bottom Line: What does all
of this mean? Well, considering even the most basic of leagues where you only
start 3 OFs, if there are 12 teams that would equal a total of 36 starters
(that number jumps to 60 if 5 starting OFs are required). Since there are only
24 OFs going for double-digit dollars, there are plenty of OFs being taken here
for pretty low bids. This means that: (A) You might be able to get a great
value at OF, (B) You had better grab at least one, and preferably 2 top OFs
early, and (C) If you pass on the 20 dollar players you can put together a
pretty darn solid threesome in OF for right around $50 dollars (as an example,
Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon and Alex Rios would only cost you, on average,
$50.11)
STARTING PITCHERS
There is only one name worth
mentioning as an elite pitcher and that is Johan Santana ($39.57). No other
pitcher is even going for $26 dollars (two are at $25, Chris Carpenter and Roy
Oswalt). In fact, there are only three other SPs even going for $20: Carlos
Zambrano, Roy Holliday and Jake Peavy. From $15-$20 dollars there are four
more: Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz and C.C. Sabathia, and then there
is a fall off in price.
Bottom Line: So the real question is this. Is it worth purchasing
Santana for $40 if you can get both Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy for that same
amount?
RELIEF PITCHERS
Joe Nathan ($25.76) and
Francisco Rodriguez ($25.18) are the only two relievers going for more than
$25. After those two, there is a solid tier of $20+ pitchers.
|
PLAYER
|
TEAM
|
AAV in $
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|
B.J. Ryan
|
TOR
|
22.79
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Mariano Rivera
|
NYY
|
22.72
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Billy Wagner
|
NYM
|
21.19
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Trevor Hoffman
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SDP
|
20.43
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Huston Street ($16.30) and
J.J. Putz ($16.13) are the only other relievers going for more than $15. After
that it is a real mish-mash of characters.
Jonathan Pabelbon is only
going for $10.71 according to the data, but most of it was collected before it
was announced he was moving back in the closers role for Boston. Look for his
number to climb much higher this week, possibly even up to the $25 mark that
separates Nathan and F-Rod.
People aren’t sold on the
health of Eric Gagne ($5.35) and as a result his setup man, Akinori Otsuka, is
actually going for more money ($10.96), though this data is also skewed by the
fact that Gagne hadn’t even thrown a pitch until recently. The injured Jason
Isringhausen (offseason hip surgery), is somehow going for more money than
Francisco Cordero of the Brewers ($9.70 to $9.00). Speaking of St. Louis, the
guy who would likely fill in for Izzy if he were to go down, Adam Wainwright,
is only going for $4.40. And three other middle relievers that are just an
injury away from closing but are valuable because of their tremendous ratios
anyway are going far too low: Jonathan Broxton ($2.93), Scott Shields ($1.76)
and Bob Howry ($1.71).
Bottom Line: Great value
can be had here with a little patience. If you want to implement a version of
the LIMA plan (Low Investment Mound Aces), you could apparently do very well by
adding Broxton, Shields, Howry and Joel Zumaya and Kyle Farnsworth for under
$12, or the same amount it would cost you to add just Tom Gordon.