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The New Generation: AAV Player Analysis
The New Generation: AAV Player Analysis
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/26/2007 | Fantasy Baseball - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Average Auction Value is significantly different from ADP (cont)

 
The king of the auction hill is still Alex Rodriguez, the only 3B going for more than 35 dollars at $41.32

THIRD BASE

The king of the hill here is still Alex Rodriguez, the only 3B going for more than 35 dollars at $41.32. Following A-Rod are the two other 30 dollar performers who are just reaching their top hitting years in Miguel Cabrera ($34.98) and David Wright ($31.98). Because 3B is so deep, only two other third sackers have been breaking the $20 barrier (Aramis Ramirez at $26.57 and Chipper Jones at $21.41). Surprisingly, the 3B who led the position in runs (117) and was second in RBIs (120) is going for just $18.75. That player is Garrett Atkins by the way. After that, only five more 3Bs break double digits.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Scott Rolen

STL

16.29

Ryan Zimmerman

WAS

14.19

Troy Glaus

TOR

12.97

Freddy Sanchez

PIT

12.68

Mark Teahen

KCR

10.03

Question. I know Mark Teahen had a huge second half
 
Teahen had a huge second split last season hitting .318-11-40 in 43 games
(.318-11-40 in 43 games), and that he will likely qualify at OF early in the season, but why is he being drafted way ahead of guys like Eric Chavez ($5.43), Hank Blalock ($5.28) and Morgan Ensberg ($3.79)? I don’t get it. Heck, he is even almost 100% more expensive than his teammate phenom Alex Gordon ($5.47), though that is due, at least in part, to the fact that we didn’t even know until the last week whether or not Gordon would start the year in Kansas City.

Bottom Line: There is a lot of value to be had here late, and you might be better off looking to 3B instead of 1B for your CI. Guys like Blalock and Chavez have a great chance of hitting .275-25-90 with considerable room to grow. Even later, a guy like Mike Lowell ($3.08) or Shae Hillenbrand (1.41), while far from being flashy or having much upside, can be counted on for a .280 season with 75 or more RBIs, and that is good value late.

SHORTSTOP

Shortstop is top heavy with 7 top-options, though Jose Reyes is considerably out in front of the others.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Jose Reyes

NYM

36.14

Derek Jeter

NYY

28.53

Miguel Tejada

BAL

28.53

Jimmy Rollins

PHI

26.37

Michael Young

TEX

21.61

Rafael Furcal

LAD

21.29

Hanley Ramirez

FLA

19.73

There are then only 4 other SS that are being drafted for even $10.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Carlos Guillen

DET

16.30

Felipe Lopez

WAS

12.41

Bill Hall*

MIL

12.02

Edgar Renteria

ATL

10.31

*Will play OF this year.

Bottom Line: Now you certainly can go further down this list and
 
 Stephen Drew adds power to mid-Infield
target players such as Orlando Cabrera ($8.05) and Stephen Drew ($5.45), but really, there is a pretty steep fall off after the top group of players. If you expect to be competitive, you had better spend big on a SS or you will be out in the cold. For those of you in leagues with middle infielders (MI), and let’s face it almost all of you are, you will probably want to look to 2B to fill that spot.

OUTFIELD

In the OF, there appear to be 5 top-level targets each going for more than $30.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Alfonso Soriano

CHC

37.65

Carl Crawford

TAM

36.25

Vladimir Guerrero

ANA

34.94

Carlos Beltran

NYM

33.22

Manny Ramirez

BOS

30.78

After that grouping, there are another 5 OFs between $25 and $30.

 PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

Ichiro Suzuki

SEA

27.64

Grady Sizemore

CLE

27.41

Carlos Lee

HOU

27.22

Bobby Abreu

NYY

26.00

Matt Holliday

COL

25.53

There are 3 more OF’s in the $24 range (Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones), and then there is a precipitous falloff as no other OF averages even a $20 bid. In the $10 to $20 range there are only 13 other OFs meaning that there are just 24 OFs going for $10 or more dollars in the “average” draft.

Bottom Line: What does all of this mean? Well, considering even the most basic of leagues where you only start 3 OFs, if there are 12 teams that would equal a total of 36 starters (that number jumps to 60 if 5 starting OFs are required). Since there are only 24 OFs going for double-digit dollars, there are plenty of OFs being taken here for pretty low bids. This means that: (A) You might be able to get a great value at OF, (B) You had better grab at least one, and preferably 2 top OFs early, and (C) If you pass on the 20 dollar players you can put together a pretty darn solid threesome in OF for right around $50 dollars (as an example, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon and Alex Rios would only cost you, on average, $50.11)

STARTING PITCHERS

There is only one name worth mentioning as an elite pitcher and that is Johan Santana ($39.57). No other pitcher is even going for $26 dollars (two are at $25, Chris Carpenter and Roy Oswalt). In fact, there are only three other SPs even going for $20: Carlos Zambrano, Roy Holliday and Jake Peavy. From $15-$20 dollars there are four more: Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz and C.C. Sabathia, and then there is a fall off in price.

Bottom Line: So the real question is this. Is it worth purchasing Santana for $40 if you can get both Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy for that same amount?

RELIEF PITCHERS

Joe Nathan ($25.76) and Francisco Rodriguez ($25.18) are the only two relievers going for more than $25. After those two, there is a solid tier of $20+ pitchers.

PLAYER

 TEAM

AAV in $

B.J. Ryan

TOR

22.79

Mariano Rivera

NYY

22.72

Billy Wagner

NYM

21.19

Trevor Hoffman

SDP

20.43

Huston Street ($16.30) and J.J. Putz ($16.13) are the only other relievers going for more than $15. After that it is a real mish-mash of characters.

Jonathan Pabelbon is only going for $10.71 according to the data, but most of it was collected before it was announced he was moving back in the closers role for Boston. Look for his number to climb much higher this week, possibly even up to the $25 mark that separates Nathan and F-Rod.

People aren’t sold on the health of Eric Gagne ($5.35) and as a result his setup man, Akinori Otsuka, is actually going for more money ($10.96), though this data is also skewed by the fact that Gagne hadn’t even thrown a pitch until recently. The injured Jason Isringhausen (offseason hip surgery), is somehow going for more money than Francisco Cordero of the Brewers ($9.70 to $9.00). Speaking of St. Louis, the guy who would likely fill in for Izzy if he were to go down, Adam Wainwright, is only going for $4.40. And three other middle relievers that are just an injury away from closing but are valuable because of their tremendous ratios anyway are going far too low: Jonathan Broxton ($2.93), Scott Shields ($1.76) and Bob Howry ($1.71).

Bottom Line: Great value can be had here with a little patience. If you want to implement a version of the LIMA plan (Low Investment Mound Aces), you could apparently do very well by adding Broxton, Shields, Howry and Joel Zumaya and Kyle Farnsworth for under $12, or the same amount it would cost you to add just Tom Gordon.



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