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Burning Up the Bases -- August 27, 2008
Burning Up the Bases -- August 27, 2008
By Kevin Burgoyne | Published  08/27/2008 | Burning up the Bases
Kevin Burgoyne
Kevin Burgoyne is first and foremost, a member of Sox Nation. He has been involved in fantasy sports for over a decade. Now living in SC, Kevin is a production analyst by day, and a statistical junkie by night. You can find his articles and opinions scattered all over the fantasy world under the pseudonym of "Statistocrat". 

View all articles by Kevin Burgoyne
Burning Up the Bases -- August 27, 2008
  Alexi Casilla
Alexi Casilla is one of the up and coming players you can expect to steal bases regularly in 2009.

As the season winds down, we turn to the future speedsters that may not be on your 2008 radar. Here is a list of major league players, who are likely to have an impact on the base paths in 2009. Pay attention, all you baseball keeper league managers, as this article may very well set you up for a healthy 2009 season.

SS Emmanuel Burriss, SFG – With only 201 at-bats under his belt, Burriss has quietly stolen a base for every eight plate appearances. With a .273 batting average and 26 runs, he has limited value, primarily in NL-Only leagues in 2008; however, he appears to be the Giants’ shortstop of the future. Burriss was given the opportunity to start every day when minor league prospect Brian Bocock hit below the Mendoza line during his brief stint in the majors. With Ray Durham out of the picture, the future now looks bright for the young infielder that has the range to play either of the two infield positions. There is no power in his bat, but with a consistent average, a high run potential, and the potential for 25-30 stolen bases in a complete season, he should be an excellent, low-cost infielder in 2009.

2009 STATISTICAL PREDICTION: 465 AB, 72 R, 0 HR, 32 RBI, 22 SB, .286 BA

OF Fred Lewis, SFG – Yet another player taking advantage of other prospects’ inability to perform at the major league level. Lewis was easily the fifth or sixth outfielder on the depth chart back in April. Dan Ortemeier could not demonstrate a consistency at the plate. Nate Schierholtz had a brief stint and upon his return to the minors, was injured. Rajai Davis had similar problems at the plate and end up being waived, eventually picked up by rival Oakland. In addition, Dave Roberts hit the disabled list early and allowed Lewis to capitalize on playing time. Lewis eventually starting in the outfield, hitting .289 so far this season, stole 21 bases, and added 79 runs to his rookie campaign.

2009 STATISTICAL PREDICTION: 515 AB, 90 R, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 31 SB, .277 BA

OF Denard Span, MIN – With an injury coming yet again to outfielder Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span was given the opportunity to showcase his talent in the outfield thus far. With only 218 at-bats, Span has had a tremendous impact on a potentially playoff-bound Minnesota squad. Span, who has hit .307 since his arrival in the bigs, has also added some pop (three homeruns), as well as speed (12 stolen bases). There is no doubt that Span is ready for the big leagues, demonstrated statistically in his short tenure this season. The problem that faces Span’s future is the players ahead of him on the depth chart, Cuddyer,  Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez. I have no doubts that he will be with the ball club next season, the question is whether or not there is room to get every day at bats.

2009 STATISTICAL PREDICTION: 355 AB, 64 R, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 20 SB, .298 BA

OF Elijah Dukes, WAS – Although trying to get over historical evidence that he is not the best guy, he is also trying to get over an injury bug that has plagued him throughout the 2008 season. Assuming that he stays healthy, and Washington continues to try to rebuild itself, there is no doubt that Dukes can be the impact player that we all thought he is capable of. In an injury-plagued 182 at-bats in ’08, Dukes still managed 10 stolen bases, six homeruns, 27 runs, and 23 runs batted in. His plate presence was up and down, with his batting average currently sitting at .264, however, a lot had to do with the time it takes to recover from injury, catching up the speed of the game, only to go down to injury again and again.

2009 STATISTICAL PREDICTION: 521 AB, 67 R, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 22 SB, .271 BA

2B Alexi Casilla, MIN – This young second baseman is yet another reason why the Twins will likely be around longer than the regular season. Casilla has, in only 265 at-bats, done all that he could be asked of and more. Hitting five homeruns, an impressive 15 doubles, matching totals (41) for runs and runs batted in, and stolen five bases, all while maintaining a .301 batting average. He has even overcome an injury to show durability as well as demonstrating the ability to jump right back in at the plate without missing a beat. I believe his statistical impact will be the most significant, going from ’08 to ’09, especially if he can get some significant playoff experience.

2009 STATISTICAL PREDICTION: 545 AB, 90 R, 18 HR, 85 RBI, 22 SB, .311 BA

OF Ryan Spilborghs, COL – We were able to catch a glimpse of this young player’s talents. Spilborghs was called up to sssssthe major leagues due to the litany of injuries that affected the Colorado Rockies’ outfield corps, only to lose him to an injury after 185 at-bats. In his short stint, he did enough to impress the Rockies’ organization and fantasy managers alike. Hitting .313, driving six over the fence, knocking in 33 runs, and crossing the plate 32 times himself, Spilborghs appears to be everything the Rockies are seeking to secure the future of their team. With a complete season under his belt, Spilborghs should be able to use the protection in the line-up (Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe) to steal a ton of bases and get into scoring position. Expect no less than 20 stolen bases, if in fact, he can secure a starting position in spring training.

It is likely, however, that he will be the fourth outfielder and be a great pick-up for 2009 and a stud in 2010.

Think Ryan Ludwick with less playing time and more speed. With that, my projections are based on utility outfielder at-bats and not a starting position.

2009 STATISTICAL PREDICTION: 386 AB, 72 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 14 SB



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