Willy Taveras is the MLB leader in stolen bases with 65, exceeding our season projections already.
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As we head into the final four weeks of the season, I wanted to take some time and see what happened to my early July predictions for the top fantasy base stealers and how close I really came to what has occurred this far. Please indulge me as we look at a follow-up to Sports Grumblings July 16th article, Burning Up The Bases: 2008 Predicted Top Base Stealers.
Predicted Number 1: Willy Taveras, 62 SB
Current Position: Number 1 (65 SB)
I projected 62 stolen bases, predicting that Taveras would likely lose some time when Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday made their return from the disabled list. Additionally, the emergence of now injured Ryan Spilborghs looked to be producing enough to limit some of Taveras’ playing time. With 65 stolen bases already, he has clearly surpassed my projections but still remains the league leader, keeping my predictions close.
Predicted Number 2: Juan Pierre, 56 SB
Current Position: Number 6 (38 SB)
I did add a disclaimer that unless there was a setback due to his injury, he would be on pace for 56 stolen bases. Unfortunately for both Juan Pierre and my prediction, both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are playing at an extremely high level and the addition of Manny Ramirez has all but eliminated any chance that Pierre had to compete with the other speedsters who have defined starting roles within their team roster.
Predicted Number 3: Jacoby Ellsbury, 56 SB
Current Position: Number 3 (46 SB)
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Jacoby Ellsbury has also dealt with minor injuries that have reduced some of his potential stolen bases. However, with the loss of J.D. Drew and Sean Casey to injury and Manny Ramirez heading out west, Ellsbury will have every opportunity in the last two weeks to add to his total and reach the number of stolen bases I predicted two months ago. Ellsbury is one of the hottest keeper prospects in AL-Only fantasy formats and looks to be in center field for the Red Sox for many seasons to come.
Predicted Number 4: Ichiro Suzuki, 54 SB
Current Position: Number 4, (40 SB)
Picking Ichiro Suzuki to finish somewhere in the Top Five is basically a “gimme putt”… almost a sure thing. With limited offense in Seattle and a high on-base percentage, there is no doubt that Suzuki will produce at or above my July predictions, but the question is whether or not he will continue to get the opportunities that others on this list will benefit from, that is, something to play for.
Predicted Number 5: Michael Bourn, 51 SB
Current Position: Number 10, (34 SB)
Just barely hanging around in the league’s Top Ten base stealers, Michael Bourn’s production has dropped off significantly since his stint on the disabled list. Bourn has basically lost any hopes of a starting position for the remainder of the 2008 season, drastically reducing his chances of staying amidst the top thieves in the league. Bourn has only had three at-bats in the past five games and will likely see this trend continue for the remainder of the season. Essentially, Bourn has been relegated to late inning pinch-running duties. Oh, how the speedy have fallen!
Predicted Number 6: Jose Reyes, 51 SB
Current Position: Number 2 (46 SB)
Seen as a fantasy late-bloomer for the past two seasons, Reyes has played a huge part in the Mets continued success late into the season, resulting in a better opportunity for the playoffs. Raising his batting average to .307 and increasing his on-base percentage (.367), Reyes appears to be on pace to match or surpass my prediction of 51 stolen bases.
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Predicted Number 7: Brian Roberts, 43 SB
Current Position: Number 8, (35 SB)
When the prediction was made (43 SB), the Orioles seem to be putting together a nice line-up. Both Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora were surging and the outfield tandem of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Luke Scott were all hitting with both power and consistency. With that, I made a leap of faith that Roberts would compete with the upper-tier base runners in the league. Even though all the other players mentioned seemed to peter out, Roberts has remained consistent on the base paths, benefiting from the one consistency on the team’s lineup, Markakis’ bat. Roberts still has the opportunity to reach my magic number for him, 43, however, just seeing him compete with these younger, more versatile players makes me more comfortable with my earlier assessment, I.E. July 16th edition of BUTB.
Predicted Number 8: B.J. Upton, 43 SB
Current Position: Number 5, (40)
During the first half of the season, B.J. Upton hit almost 30 points below his previous year’s batting average with a significant power outage to boot. With the low on-base percentage and the question of whether this team was for real still a hot topic, I based my low prediction on the seasonal data through July and took into account the nicks and bruises he has sustained throughout the season. Although only three bases away from my prediction, he again is dealing with a minor, nagging injury (foot). Look for Upton to hit my number on the nose or best it by no more than two, heading into the final weeks of the season.
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Predicted Number 9: Jimmy Rollins, 38 SB
Current Position: Number 7 (38 SB)
With an ankle injury plaguing him at the plate, on the field, and on the base paths, I believed that he would feel lingering pangs throughout the season, thus lowering my expectations of the 2007 NL MVP winner. It appears that I was right, up until the part where I said it would be throughout the season. Since August 1st alone, Rollins has stolen 11 bases, demonstrating that he is ready for the playoffs and there are no lingering effects from his early season ankle issues. Increasing his batting average to .269, on-base percentage to .335, and slugging percentage to .437 has everyone, including this writer (I have Rollins in one of my keeper leagues) hoping that he continues this trend straight through to the end of the season.
Predicted Number 10: Ian Kinsler, 37 SB
Current Position: Number 17, (26 SB)
With Kinsler hitting the disabled list on August 18th and likely headed for season-ending surgery, thus go my hopes that all my picks would be relatively close. Kinsler has had injury issues since being promoted to the majors. I took this into consideration when making the list, but all indications pointed to him being healthy and productive for a complete season.
PREDICTED TOP 11-25
Number 11: Alex Rios (37 SB) Current Position: 12 (30 SB)
Number 12: Carl Crawford (37 SB) Current Position: 18 (25 SB)*
Number 13: Hanley Ramirez (37 SB) Current Position: 14 (29 SB)
Number 14: Grady Sizemore (35 SB) Current Position: 9 (35 SB)
Number 15: Shane Victorino (35 SB) Current Position: 13 (30 SB)
Number 16: Matt Kemp (35 SB) Current Position: 11 (32 SB)
Number 17: Carlos Gomez (34 SB) Current Position: 15 (28 SB)
Number 18: Joey Gathright (30 SB) Current Position: 25 (21 SB)
Number 19: Brandon Phillips (30 SB) Current Position: 23 (23 SB)
Number 20: Randy Winn (29 SB) Current Position: 21 (25 SB)
Number 21: Jason Bartlett (29 SB) Current Position: 32 (18 SB)*
Number 22: Fred Lewis (27 SB) Current Position: 26 (21 SB)
Number 23: Chone Figgins (26 SB) Current Position: 16 (27 SB)
Number 24: Carlos Beltran (24 SB) Current Position: 29 (19 SB)*
Number 25: Lance Berkman (24 SB) Current Position: 39 (16 SB)
* Denotes player who has sustained injury, either since predictions or currently on injured reserve.
