Denard Span will likely be one of the elite base stealers for years to come.
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The major league playoff talks are starting to heat up while the fantasy baseball market is significantly cooling down. With a majority of leagues closing out, if not finished already, their World Series match-ups, we look at the fantasy season that was (2007), is (2008) and will be (2009).
Where Are They Now? [2007]
OF Eric Byrnes, ARI ~ With only 206 at-bats in the 2008 season, Eric Byrnes succumbed to injury. For many fantasy owners, July 1st was a tough day as Byrnes had previously demonstrated that he had become a multi-tool fantasy outfielder. Byrnes amassed 50 stolen bases in 2007 to go along with 21 homeruns, 103 runs, and 83 runs batted in, all while hitting a career-best .286 batting average. Many fantasy managers have short-term memory and focus on who will be the “sexy” pick in 2009, leaving many managers the opportunity to scoop up Byrnes and reap the benefits of his speed.
OF Corey Patterson, CIN ~ As a member of the Baltimore Orioles, Corey Patterson stole 37 bases in a full-time roster role. Many did not seek the same from in 2008 as he went into the season unsigned. Relegated to a platoon-role in the outfield, Patterson saw 140 less at-bats and even less stolen base opportunity decrease. In 2007, Patterson stole a base 8.03% of the time that he came to the plate whereas in 2008, his statistics plummeted to a meager 5.98%. Unfortunate for Patterson, he has lost all fantasy relevance, as his speed was the only reason to even add him to your fantasy bench.
SS Julio Lugo, BOS ~ Coveted by General Manager Theo Epstein, Lugo became the newest attempt at a higher profile shortstop to come to Boston. Fresh off the Edgar Renteria experiment, the team sought out Lugo, hoping he would hit at or near the .280 batting average he had prior to his arrival at Fenway. With his batting average dropping off the face of the map, “Last Out” Lugo still got it done on the base paths in 2007, stealing 33 bases. Injuries and poor plate presence drove Lugo to be overlooked in all but the deepest of AL-Only fantasy leagues. With the arrival of Jed Lowrie to the major leagues, Lugo has seen his days as a fantasy consideration diminish significantly and may have likely played his last days in a Boston uniform.
2B Kazuo Matsui, HOU ~ Once heralded as a big reason the Colorado Rockies made it to the World Series in 2007, Matsui has found that his re-emerging career (post-Mets) took a turn for the worse in 2008 as he and the Astros endured a season of disappointment and injury. Matsui had stolen 33 bases in 2007 and due to injury, was only able to grab 19 in 2008. Barring a healthy return in 2009, Matsui should be able to increase his stolen base opportunity to the mid-20s, making him a great, low-cost, sleeper quality second baseman/utility/middle infielder.
OF Coco Crisp, BOS ~ Oh, how the fan base of Sox Nation heralded the arrival of this potential .300 hitting outfielder with speed and pop at the plate. Now finishing out his second year in Boston, Crisp, like Lugo, has lost his starting position to the up-and-coming talent of the Boston organization. Jacoby Ellsbury has all but replaced Crisp in the line-up that exists today, relegating Crisp to mop-up and pinch-running duties. In all likelihood, Crisp will be traded in the off-season. As long as he does not end up on another team over-run with young outfield talent, he should regain some of his fantasy value in 2009. Heck, if Juan Pierre can do it, Crisp can too.
Who Can You Trust? [2008]
SS Jose Reyes, NYM ~ With 78 stolen bases in 2007 and 50 in 2008, Reyes is easily one of the most dependable players to get you where you want to be in the stolen base category. He struggled early in 2008, which could be said for every Mets’ player this year. Reyes did finally turn it around and produced well enough to be considered trustworthy. To expect 20-100-85-50-.295 next year would likely be right on target for the season’s production.
SS Jimmy Rollins, PHI ~ Plagued by injury, Rollins still managed to have an impact on the bases in 2008. Rollins has already surpassed his 2007 stolen base total (41) by one so far and still has more games to play. Even with a lingering ankle injury, Rollins has taken his stolen base consistency to a level that easily puts him in-line with the rest of the top-tier thieves in the league.
OF Ichiro Suzuki, SEA ~ To say that Seattle’s season was disappointing is an understatement, yet Suzuki continues to produce for fantasy owners. Even with a batting line-up as porous as the Mariners have, Suzuki still managed to steal 42 bases (five more than ’07), score 95 runs, and bat .300 for the season. He is not up there with the five-tool outfielders, however, he is still relevant in any fantasy format and should continue for years to come, defying age and offensive opportunities.
OF B.J. Upton, TB ~ Hitting only eight homeruns in 2008 did little to impress fantasy managers who drafted Upton in the early rounds, however, having second base availability in most major fantasy games did taper off some of the aggravation. Upton has managed 42 stolen bases thus far, keeping him relevant in the world of fantasy baseball, but the potential for 25-100-100-45-.300 seems to be way too high of an expectation for Upton in the future.
OF Grady Sizemore, CLE ~ Besting 2007 by five stolen bases already (38), Sizemore has done enough to redeem himself of the two slow starts in ’07 and again in ’08. Batting around the .280 mark with 90-90 statistics in runs and runs batted in is better than can be expected when you consider that both of his biggest protectors in the line-up, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez spent most of the season on injured reserve. As long as the Indians line-up is healthy in 2008, 30-100-100-40-.280 is a reasonable expectation, placing him among the very few, five-tool outfielders to be drafted in 2009.
Who’s Who in the Near Future? [2009]
OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS ~ For the better part of two years, Jacoby Ellsbury was a household name in New England, primarily Sox Nation. However, in 2008 he became a household name throughout the entire fantasy baseball community. Stealing 48 bases while sharing field-time with Coco Crisp is nothing short of astounding. With the starting role in centerfield likely his alone in 2009, the bar has been set very high for Ellsbury’s second full season in the majors. My best predictions put him in the 12-110-60-60-.280 area, which would be a solid sophomore performance out of this young, speedy outfielder.
OF Michael Bourn, HOU ~ What Michael Bourn lacks in plate presence, he certainly made up for on the base paths in 2008. Bourn was off to the races early this season, spending many days in the first months of the season as the stolen base leader in the majors. Unfortunately for Bourn his plate presence (.222 BA) and some nicks and bruises along the way prevented him from accomplishing more. In all likelihood, Bourn will be an NL equivalent to Oakland’s Rajai Davis; Capable of stealing a base anytime, granted that he is on base in the first place. Many hope that his second year in the majors will see at least a 25 point increase in batting average, making him more viable as a fantasy option and not what he is today, in the line-up if and when you need stolen bases.
OF Matt Kemp, LAD ~ Finally coming into his own in a crowded outfield in Los Angeles, Matt Kemp is starting to show why the team refused to include him in any trade-talks leading up to the 2008 season. With 33 stolen bases, 16 homeruns, 85 runs, and 71 runs batted in while fighting for time on the field, it was the off-field issues (actually fighting with teammates in the dugout) that worried most fantasy owners. Kemp has the ability to put up 30-90-90-50-.280 in a single season if he can get focused on the game and increase his opportunities to stay on the field. He will have to contend with Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and possibly Manny Ramirez for a starting role in 2009.
OF Carlos Gomez, MIN ~ Like Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez appeared to have been shot out of a cannon the first couple months of the season. Also like Bourn, Gomez has been streaky at the plate. With a .250 batting average, he is the more bearable of the two to put into your fantasy roster. Gomez his phenomenal in the field and with more seasoning and durability can approach the 45-50 stolen base mark in 2009.
OF Denard Span, MIN ~ A late bloomer, Denard Span joined the Twins’ major league ball club when it was apparent that Michael Cuddyer would not be around for some significant time. Batting .299 with just 301 at-bats, Span has already stolen 19 bases and shows no signs of stopping. He will likely have to work hard in the off-season if he wants to stay in the big leagues and steal time from a young and deep outfield in Minnesota. He will contend with the oft-injured Michael Cuddyer, hard-hitting Jason Kubel, and even possibly Nick Punto as the infield becomes even more crowded with the arrival and consistent play of South Carolina Gamecock alumni Brian Buscher.
