2007 Cubs Team Preview




2007 Team Finish: 66-96 – Last Place in the NL Central

Key Additions: OF Alfonso Soriano, INF Mark DeRossa, LHP Neal Cotts (trade), LHP Ted Lilly, 1B Daryle Ward, RHP Jason Marquis

Key Losses: OF Juan Pierre, INF/OF Freddie Bynum, RHP David Aardsma, SP Greg Maddux


Last season the Chicago Cubs put to rest doubts about whether or not they are a truly cursed organization. They lost starting pitchers Kerry Wood and Mark Prior to injury once again, leaving their rotation in shambles. Carlos Zambrano took another step towards joining the National League elite, leading the team with 15 wins, a 3.43 ERA and over 200 strikeouts. Cubs management added insult to injury by failing to extend him at a discount immediately after the season, and now will be forced to pay him Barry Zito money if they hope to retain him beyond 2007.  The Cubs offense never got on track after losing 2005 MVP contender Derek Lee for the season to a freak wrist injury.  Slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre put the nail in the coffin for manager Dusty Baker.  And so we say goodbye to the splintered toothpick era in Chicago.

In the offseason, General Manager Jim Hendry must of sensed that his days were numbered as well, so he went on a spending spree that would have made George Steinbrenner proud. Hendry brought in the venerable Lou Pinella to manage the team, and signed former Tigers managers Alan Trammel as his bench coach. Then the Cubs dove head first into free agency, signing the top bat on the market, 40-40 man Alfonso Soriano and they resigned the NL’s top power hitting 3B Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be hometown discount. Hendry finally came to the realization that counting on the health of Wood and Prior is foolishness, so he brought in veterans Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis to round out the rotation behind Zambrano and second year stud Rich Hill.  If the Cubs can avoid injury, they have as dangerous a lineup as anybody in the National League.  If Hendry’s pitching gambles workout, and the rotation can keep the team in games, the Cubs could prove to be hard to keep up with in 2007.

In The Field


Catcher

Michael Barrett has been one of the most consistent catchers in all of baseball over the last three seasons. Over that time span he has raised his OPS from .826 to.885. Prior to the arrival of Brian McCann last season in Atlanta, there wasn’t a better offensive catcher in the National league. His BB rate has stayed unchanged over the last two seasons, while his strikeout rate has dropped significantly from 12.8% down to 9.8%.  He should continue to hit around 15 HR which puts him right at the top in terms of power hitting catchers. Barrett hits well against both lefties and righties and hits much better at home. He was enjoying a solid second half with better power numbers until he suffered what is quite possibly the most painful injury any man could possibly imagine. Interscrotal hematoma. I don’t even want to know what it actually is. Barrett is fully recovered for 2007, and should still be one of the top three catchers in the National League.

First Base

Derek Lee suffered a broken wrist early in the year in a freak collision at first, and missed most of the season. He attempted to come back too soon, and just couldn’t get back on track.  He’ll never be able to repeat his 2005 season, but he’s still an incredibly dangerous hitter.  The good news is that the injury he sustained shouldn’t effect his power stroke long-term. He could hit anywhere between 25 and 35 homeruns, he’ll steal some bases here and there and post an OPS just shy of .900.  His high walk rates will continue to anchor pretty impressive OBP totals, and the power should return nicely.  It’s always hard to project a hitter coming off of a serious wrist injury, since the wrists play such a pivotal role in swinging a bat, but Lee has looked great in the spring. Don’t pay for 2005, but he’s definitely worth a mid to late second round pick.

Second Base

Mark DeRosa finally managed some regular at bats last season, and he responded with a career year, posting an OPS a little over .800, and 55 XBH which made up for his low BB rate.  He killed left-handers, hitting .342 against them last season.  He did suffer a pretty big drop-off in production in the second half, but that was primarily isolated in the month of September, as he was still posting a .920 OPS in August.  DeRosa will finally get a full-time job in Chicago, and will most likely start off hitting in front of Lee, Soriano, and Ramirez, so he should see plenty of good pitches to hit.

Third Base

The Cubbies re-signed Aramis Ramirez to what proved to be by far the best deal of the off-season: 5 years, $75 Million.  After beginning the year in a slump where he managed to hit just .259 with 16 homeruns over the first half, he exploded onto the scene after the break, finishing up with a 1.041 OPS and 80 XBH in 660 PA.  He’s incredibly consistent; averaging .303, with a .928 OPS, 35 HRs, and105 RBIs over the last three seasons.  His walk rate leaves something to be desired, but his great contact rates and the fact that he strike out very often more than compensate for that.  He’s as good a bet as anyone to excel in 2007, especially in the heart of a much improved Cubs lineup.

Shortstop

Cesar Izturis is an afterthought in fantasy circles.  He’s a defensive-minded shortstop who doesn’t steal bases anymore, walks only about 5% of the time, and his excessive ground balls don’t tend to find the hole very often.  He’s hit all of 34 XBH the last two seasons combined and doesn’t have any fantasy value, outside of strengthening the pitching staff a bit with solid defense at short.

Out In The Grass



Left Field

Matt Murton started out slowly (the story of 2006 for the majority of Cubs hitters), but powered his way to a strong second half with a .912 OPS in 231 PA.  He hits lefties a lot better than righties, especially in relation to his power stroke.  His HR/F ratio is good, and he should continue to hit around .295 with better than 15 HR.  At 25 years old, he’s just entering his prime. His BB/K ratio is good so he’s bound to improve over the next couple of seasons. He’s been hitting with authority in Spring Training, which should relegate newcomer Cliff Floyd to being no more than an occasional substitute against tougher righties. Murton is a solid option in NL only leagues and has projection upside in Mixed leagues.

Center Field

Wow, what didn’t Alfonso Soriano do last season.  He finally joined the 40/40 club, and posted a career high .351 OBP, though that was padded with 16 intentional walks and nine HBPs.  His strikeout rate is still huge, but I’ll take that with the rest of that production.  His HR/F ratios have increased from 10.6 in 2004 to 19.4 last season, while hitting in spacious RFK Stadium no less. Just imagine what he could do with the wind blowing out at Wrigley.  There’s no reason to expect his power to decline, and manager Lou Pinella has already said that he plans to give Soriano the green light on the base paths.  That notoriously long infield grass at Wrigley, combined with his speed, should increase Soriano’s infield hits as well. He is the top outfielder in all of baseball for 2007, and should be drafted at number three overall, just behind Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes.

Right Field

Jacque Jones quieted his critics by posting one of the best years of his career in 2006, including an .833 OPS with 59 XBH in 578 PA.  He may not hit .285 again though, as that number was partially inflated due to a lucky BaBIP.  Jones hits an awful lot of ground balls, but what he does put in the air, the ball goes out of the park at one of the best rates in the majors.  If he could find a way to put the ball in the air more often, he’d probably hit 30 HR easily.  He’ll be good for 25 HR and a .260 AVG with an .800 OPS.  He’s often overlooked in deeper leagues.  Don’t be afraid to opt for a speedy middle infielder earlier in the draft, knowing that you can get solid power production out of Jones late.