Starting Pitching

Projected Rotation

1.    Carlos Zambrano, RH
2.    Ted Lilly, LH
3.    Jason Marquis, RH
4.    Rich Hill, LH
5.    Wade Miller, RH

Carlos Zambrano is an absolute warrior.  He’s consistently posted better than eight K/9 throughout his career, and his 0.69 HR/9 is phenomenal considering how many innings he’s pitched and the park he plays in.  He’s one of those throwback starters who can throw seven plus innings every fifth day allowing the manager to rest his bullpen.  He’s thrown over 200 innings for four straight years, and shows no signs of slowing down.  His walk rate is horrendous compared to the strikeout rate, but when a guy consistently posts an ERA under 3.50, wins 15 games and strikes out 200 batters, who cares?  For those of you who believe in the power of the dollar, he is in his walk year, and he’s ready to make Jim Hendry look foolish if he fails to extend him before Opening Day.  Ted Lilly’s got decent peripheral stats, and he’s not being asked to be anything more than a league-average starter. The problem is that he still allows a ton of base runners. Couple that with his extreme fly-ball tendencies, and the inflated HR/9 ratio looks especially dangerous at Wrigley Field.  Mark Prior was permanently wrecked by Dusty Baker when the Cubs made a run in 2003 and he’ll once again begin the season in the minors. Jason Marquis was arguably the NL’s worst pitcher in 2006, as evidenced by his 5.94 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).


Rich Hill on the other hand, finally found a way to translate his minor league success to the big leagues late last season, and is a very strong sleeper candidate for strikeouts.  His curveball has been compared to Barry Zito’s, and when he can control it, he makes professional hitters look absurd.  The final pitcher to claim a rotation job this spring was Wade Miller, who pitched just well enough this spring to avoid being beaten out by the injured Prior.  Miller won’t ever be the strikeout pitcher he was with Houston from 2001-2004, but if he stays healthy, he could reinvent himself as a serviceable middle of the rotation starter.


Projected Bullpen

1.    Ryan Dempster, RH, Closer
2.    Bob Howry, RH
3.    Will Ohman, LH



Ryan Dempster blew nine saves last season, and I’ll venture a guess and say that his 4.1 BB/9 IP had something to do with it. You just can’t close out games when you’re walking everyone, no matter how often you strike out opposing hitters. Bobby Howry has established himself as a great setup pitcher, and should Dempster revert to blowing games, he’ll likely get the first shot as closer.  His amazing K/BB ratios should make him a solid option again in 2007. The Cubs would like to see Kerry Wood succeed in his new role as a reliever, and have hopes that he could turn into a dominant closer or setup man.  But like Prior, he hasn’t been able to recover from reoccurring injury, and will once again begin the season on the DL.

Sleeper

Matt Murton just refuses to let the Cubs replace him in left field.  Last season Dusty wanted to platoon him, and this season Jim Hendry brought in Cliff Floyd to take away some of his at bats against righties. But he just keeps hitting, keeps improving defensively, and at 25 years old, there’s definitely upside in that bat.  Murton makes a solid selection as a fourth or fifth outfielder who could outperform projections.

Bust

Mark DeRosa just doesn’t have enough of a track record to assume that he turned a corner last year.  Granted the extra at bats probably helped him to get into a groove, and he’ll have plenty of those at second for the Cubbies in ’07. It’s the fact that he didn’t get that opportunity until he turned 31 that makes one wonder whether or not he’s a legitimate every day player in the Major Leagues.

Top Prospect

Felix Pie nearly made the roster out of Spring Training this season. The five-tool centerfielder is defensively ready now, but unless Hendry can find a taker for Jacque Jones, the Cubs have too many superior bats in the outfield to justify rushing their future star.  NL only players should keep him on the radar and consider stashing him on the bench if the space is available.  Those in keeper leagues will want to take a flier on him now, as he’d have to struggle mightily to avoid getting the call at some point this year.

First Off The Bench

Ryan Theriot got 134 ABs at the end of last season after Todd Walker was traded to San Diego, and he made a very strong first impression, hitting .328 with a .934 OPS and 13 SBs.  His K/BB rate last season was a phenomenal 1:1, and he’s shown enough this spring to convince Pinella to keep him on the roster as the season begins.  If Mark DeRosa’s career year last season turns out to be a fluke, look for Theriot to get ample opportunity to replace him.