Elvis Andrus, SS - Rangers

The world of fantasy baseball is much like the stock market.  You plug your heart, soul, and paycheck into it, and then it treats you like you are its weaker cellmate in prison.  When all is said and done, your spirit is broken, your money is gone, and you have problems taking care of business. 

 

One of the adages that translates from the stock market to fantasy baseball is one should sell high and buy low.  At this point in the season, hasty and desperate owners have jumped ship on players for various reasons.  Maybe they do not believe in a player.  Maybe the player was dropped out of necessity as more and more players take an extended vacation on the DL requiring roster shuffling.  Perhaps those owners saw a shiny object (read: Emilio Bonifacio after two games) and dropped the guy who they were high on going into the draft for a flash in the pan. 

 

Regardless of the reason, the guys currently sitting on the waiver wire in your league are at the greatest value, and as players like Brian McCann, Brandon Webb, and B.J. Ryan begin to earn that DL designation, your team more than likely has a roster spot making itself available to you, the opportunistic owner.  

 

 

Elvis Andrus – SS – Texas Rangers (42% Y!)

A 2-for-17 week with one run scored has found the 20-year-old shortstop getting dropped by impatient owners.  In AA-Frisco last year, Andrus hit .295/.350/.367/.717, which are all right numbers, but his speed is what entices.  Last year, he stole 54 bases in 70 attempts, and since signing a minor-league contract with the Braves as a 16-year-old he has stolen125 bases.  His plate discipline in the minors since 2005 has been all right.  Always having been one of the youngest players at every level, Andrus managed 151 walks to his 321 strikeouts in nearly 1,800 PAs. 

 

Andrus is a 20-year-old rookie and as such will have his ups and downs.  There will be weeks where he will do very little, as some found out last week, but the upside is hard to ignore.  As for his numbers so far, his ISO of .125 might be a bit higher than one would expect at this point (but perhaps he will start to grow into some more power), but given his higher than anticipated ISO and his speed, his BABIP of .308 could probably be expected to be a little higher than it is.  

 

 

Dexter Fowler – CF – Colorado Rockies (24% Y!)

Top Rockies’ prospect Dexter Fowler was much-heralded coming into this season, but he finds himself widely available at this point.  A mere 23 years of age, Fowler has been in the minors for the past four years, working his was up to the level of AA before making the Major League team coming out of spring training.  His minor league track record was pretty impressive, posting a .301/.394/.452/.847 over 1,513 PAs.  While his home run totals in the minors were not jaw-dropping, he did manage 126 XBHs in his 1,291 Abs indicating that the power may develop.  He also has some speed (101 steals in the minors), but his judgment on the basepaths led to only a 68.8% success rate.  Success will have to be greater than that to continue to get the green light at the Major League level.    

 

The puzzling aspect of his low fantasy ownership at this point is that his stats thus far have not done anything to scare owners away.  He is carrying a .286/.364/.490/.853 split into this week.  He already has four stolen bases and two home runs.  He plays half of his games in Coors Field, which should play well to his speed and growing power, and since you can steal bases in any park, he isn’t necessarily someone who should only be played when the Rockies are at home (although it will surely help). 

 

 

Phil Hughes – SP – New York Yankees (47% Y!)

Hughes has been the next big thing for three years now.  These things happen when you are the top prospect for the team with the biggest payroll and the largest fanbase in the sport.  As you well know, his struggles have led to the application of the tag ‘bust’ to Hughes, largely the byproduct of the insanity prevalent in the Yankees Universe.

 

Hughes is not yet 23 years old.  If the success of Zack Greinke this season and last has proven anything, it is that one should not give up on a top pitching prospect too early.  Fantasy owners may have been scared off by the 6.62 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his 34 innings last season, but those numbers are mostly tainted by his abysmal pre-DL stint April.  When he went to the DL after his April 29^th start last year, his ERA sat at 9.00.  In his two September starts, he allowed nine hits and two walks while fanning ten in 12 innings of work. 

 

Moreover, his BABIP last season was an extremely unlucky .354.  His FIP in the majors for the past two seasons has been 4.34 and 4.35.  Given his bad luck and season derailing injury from last year and his sterling minor league track record, that 4.34 FIP should give owners a good idea as to what to expect in the ERA area.  In his minor league career coming into this season, his WHIP has been an impressive 0.92 while sporting 10.1 K/9 and 4.52 K/BB ratios.  His control and ability to strike guys out should entice all owners, regardless of his shoddy April of 2008.  As for the Yankees, he is surely a better option than Chien-Ming Wang right now.