Jonathan Sanchez, SP - San Francisco

Amazing. After what seemed like an endless off-season, we have already reached May Day. This is where we can start legitimately evaluating our teams, as sample sizes start to get a little larger and the clock strikes midnight for many of the flukes, as they turn back into pumpkins. After all, anyone can have a good month, but to win your league, you need to figure out how to separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, the cliché from the other cliché. This has already started to happen with Emilio Bonifacio, who has spent the last two weeks batting .213 with a .288 on-base percentage after this hot start delighted fantasy owners. Another example: it is unlikely that Russell Branyan, with a career batting average of .234 will bat .344 all season. Expect a free fall soon. Now onto the two-start pitchers for the week.

Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco: at Chicago, at Los Angeles:

Sanchez has a big arm, and at 26, this lefty is starting to come into his own. He has always had the strikeout numbers, with roughly a strikeout per inning for his career, but his big problem has been his tendency to walk too many hitters and give up a big inning. He has avoided giving up the big inning in 2009 thus far (although he is still walking too many batters), and as a result he has a 2.60 ERA in his first three starts. This week he will have two starts on the road, facing the Cubs in Wrigley and the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine. The Cubs struggled in April against left handed pitchers, and with Sanchez throwing the ball well right now, this looks to be a favorable start. As far as the Dodgers are concerned, Sanchez tossed five shutout innings against them last week in a no-decision. He looks to be a good option this week.

Edwin Jackson, Detroit: vs. Minnesota, at Cleveland:

It shocks me that Edwin Jackson is still only 25 years old. To put that into perspective, he is only nine months older than Tim Lincecum. Yet, Jackson is already on his third team, having failed with the Dodgers and the Rays. Although it is only five starts thus far in 2009, Jackson looks to be fulfilling the expectations that accompanied him when he out-pitched Randy Johnson in his first major league start in 2003. He gets the Twins at home this week, and the Indians on the road. He is a worthwhile gamble this week. 

Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado: at San Diego, vs. Florida:

De La Rosa struggled at times last year, but started to get it together, upping his strikeout totals to nearly a strikeout per inning. Coors be damned, I targeted De La Rosa is a breakout candidate before the season, and to date, have been pleasantly surprised. He has truly had only one bad start, which was his opening start against the Phillies at home, who are liable to bat anyone around the yard. In fact, excluding that start, his ERA has been 2.00. He gets the Padres and the Marlins this week.

Eric Stults, Los Angeles (NL): vs. Arizona, vs. San Francisco:

Stuts has not been particularly strong this year, as he has moved into the rotation while Hiroki Kuroda has been struggling with an oblique injury.  Still, those numbers are slightly skewed by an explosion against the Giants. He did pitch well against the Giants his first time around, and also had a strong performance against the Diamondbacks. Seeing as how this will be the third time facing San Francisco in such a short season, there is the risk of overexposure. But, the Diamondbacks and Giants have two of the worst offenses in the league, and look for Stults to take advantage, as he tries to convince Joe Torre to let him stay in the rotation when Kuroda gets healthy.

Kyle Davies, Kansas City: vs. Chicago, at Los Angeles: 

Davies was a hot prospect for the Braves for years before struggling in a tryout over three seasons in Atlanta, and then being sent to Kansas City for Octavio Dotel.  He pitched solid last season, albeit with a high WHIP, and came into 2009 with some moderate expectations. The early returns are not phenomenal, with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.382 WHIP, but as with Stults above, that is skewed strongly by one brutal outing against the Tigers. He has been at least competitive in four of his five starts, including a dominating opening start of seven shutout innings against the White Sox – his first opponent of the week. He will also get the Angels this week.

Turning to the hitters, the Cubs middle infield of Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot had big weeks, blasting five home runs between the two. Considering Theriot's career high in homers is three, he must have eaten his HGH, er, I mean, Wheaties this week. Don't expect too much more power production from Theriot for the year, but if he's swinging the bat well, the steals will follow.

Another tandem that has looked hot, and is a good bet going forward is the Colorado outfield of Dexter Fowler and Ryan Spilborghs. Fowler gives you the speed, having stolen five bases in one game against the Padres. Spilborghs has picked up where he left off last year, positioning himself for a 20-20 season, with three home runs and four stolen bases to start the year. With a home stand approaching, both of these are good bets for the upcoming week.

Moving to the American League, Adam Jones of the Orioles exploded this past week, batting just a shade under .500, with three home runs and three stolen bases, which continued what has been an impressive season thus far. He has a world of talent, but since he is still young you need be aware of him hitting the wall. Still, that is probably a concern for later this year. Stick with him for now.

And a reader question of interest:

I (unfortunately) am an Oliver Perez owner. Is it time to panic – or is too late?! - Josh from New York

The hallmark of Ollie's career to date has been inconsistency. Good start, bad start, you never know what you are going to get with him. It is not even like you can predict the match-ups, based on his outstanding performance against the Phillies in 2008. Sadly, as a Mets fan, I think it is beyond panic time. Even when I owned him in his disastrous 2006 campaign (6.63 ERA, 1.829 WHIP), I have never seen Ollie look this bad. I mean, yesterday he issued a bases loaded walk to Jamie Moyer, he of the 43 hits in 23 seasons. I would not be surprised to see Ollie in AAA Buffalo within the week, and you certainly cannot start him. If you have a bench, it is okay to stash him and see if he can get it together, but if you are in a mixed league or a no-bench league, I think it's time to cut him loose, and let someone else have a turn.

And finally, the Arlington/Coors/Great American/Citizens Bank watch for the week:

Arlington: No home games

Coors:  San Francisco, Florida

Great American: Milwaukee, St. Louis

Citizens Bank: Atlanta 

That will do it for this week. See you next time.

Questions? Comments? sethf@sportsgrumblings.com