Chase Utley's hip has been a complete non-factor this season. Who knew?
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Hi folks, welcome to The Knot Hole Gang, where we bring you all the news you need to know to make your fantasy team the best it can be. Let’s take up our familiar spot outside the outfield fences and see what’s going on at the ball yard.
Phillies
It has been a very strange first month of the season for Phillies ace pitcher Cole Hamels. He began the season getting thrashed by two teams from the NL West, arguably among the weakest in baseball in his first two outings. Then his next two outings were both shortened, each by a completely unrelated injury and coming just as he appeared to finally show some command of his pitches. The first two outings were blamed on a lack of spring training innings because of his participation in the World Baseball Classic. But the second two outings, when combined, paint a potentially bright picture of the road ahead for the 25-year old lefty. Over seven and two thirds innings he struck out ten batters, walked just two, scattered eight hits, and allowed only two earned runs to cross the plate. More importantly, his fastball consistently reached the 90–92 mph range after several weeks of struggling to surpass 89 mph. That, along with his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.99, tells me he is going to be just fine if he can stay healthy. Hamels was slated to test his ankle in a throwing session Friday but it was postponed until Saturday or Sunday. If he does not experience any pain in his leg and ankle during the session he will make his next start either Monday or Tuesday. So we will just have to wait and see. *** The news was even brighter for Brad Lidge, who threw a 30-pitch bullpen session today and discovered that a slight tweak of his mechanics is all it will take to keep his balky knee from objecting and swelling up on him. He’s been unavailable for a couple of games, but pronounced himself ready to go after today’s session. However, it is now obvious that Ryan Madson is the go-to guy any time Lidge cannot pitch, so he becomes a much more valuable fantasy commodity as a result, and as well as the pitcher that Lidge owners should handcuff in case of injury to Lidge. Madson was hitting 96 mph on the gun with his fastball, and also tosses a sick changeup that drops in 20 mph slower. Given that Madson is also sporting a terrific K/9IP of 13.5, I highly recommend you set aside a roster spot for him, especially in leagues that value the “holds” scoring category. *** If there had not been any news reports regarding Chase Utley’s hip injury and subsequent surgery, I’m not sure that anyone would have been the wiser. Utley is hitting as though none of it ever happened. He leads all NL second basemen in batting average (.342), homeruns (7), RBI (20), walks (13), and OBP (.461). I’d like to personally thank all the touts that projected a slow start and poor season for Utley; because of you I was able to take Pujols in the first round and still nab Utley with a late second round pick. *** Carlos Ruiz began his rehab assignment at Triple A Lehigh Valley. He should be back with the Phillies in a week or two.
Cardinals
The vast improvement that Dave Duncan has made in the pitching of Kyle Lohse is nothing short of miraculous. Duncan took a pitcher that had a career ERA just below 5.00 and a losing career record of 63-74, and turned him into a fifteen game winner with a sub 4.00 ERA, feats Lohse could never even dream of earlier in his career. This season he’s off to an incredible start, with a record of 3-0, and a 1.97 ERA. Most of the gains accomplished by Lohse (with Duncan’s guidance) have been achieved by improving his walk rates from previous years, and getting rid of his fly ball tendencies along with his nasty habit of serving up the long ball. He’s obviously a different pitcher, but I have a very hard time believing he’s as good as his numbers say he is this season. In fact, his BABIP of .247 and his FIP of .362 indicate that he is due for a correction to his stats sooner rather than later. So if you’re thinking than maybe you’re sitting on this year’s Cy Young winner, you’re probably mistaken. In fact, this might be a very good time to sell high on Lohse, before he blows up. *** Khalil Greene arrived in St. Louis as a free agent over the winter, and many touts, myself included, felt that the change of scenery would do him good, and that perhaps we might see a return to the player he was back in 2007 when he hit 24 homeruns and batted .254. The hope was that because he is playing in a much better overall lineup, that he would get more opportunities to drive in runners, and score when he go on base. There are some hopeful signs in that he has as many walks as strikeouts thus far. The fact that he has nine walks already this season after getting only 22 free passes in over 400 plate appearances last season is a very good sign. His BABIP is very low at .226, and is a sign that he’s been somewhat unlucky with the balls he’s put in play. Finally, his contact rate is up around 87%, a number he should be able to keep up for at least a while in the early going. I fully expect that this is just a blip on his radar screen, and that perhaps he’s pressing a bit and trying to impress his new employer. Buy low on Greene before he takes off and the bandwagon gets too full. With Brendan Ryan on the DL for the time being, Greene really doesn’t have anyone to steal at bats from him.
Astros
Jose Valverde had 20 cc’s of fluid removed from his calf, with another 60 cc’s still sitting there. Unfortunately, that fluid has to come off of there, so Valverde will have to have another withdrawing procedure. It’s going to be about three weeks before Valverde is ready to return to the mound, which means that LaTroy Hawkins will be holding down the fort for Houston for a couple of weeks and getting the save chances. Hawkins has done pretty well so far, but has a history of difficulty with the closer’s roll. He usually starts off OK, but seems to have a choking problem at times. If you need saves, it’s OK to go with Hawkins, but be ready to bail on him at the first sign of trouble. *** What in the world is wrong with Lance Berkman? Unfortunately, I’m not really in a position to diagnose hit troubles at the plate. The statistics do have some information to think about though. First of all, his BABIP is a ridiculously low .154. That represents an incredible string of bad luck, especially for a guy with a career BABIP of .319. Next, he is striking out at a much higher rate than he has at any time in his career. Interestingly enough, most of those strikeouts (41%) are of the looking variety. So he’s not really swinging and missing pitches, he is getting caught with the bat on his shoulder. The numbers seem to suggest that Berkman is not being aggressive at the plate. By way of comparison, last season only 19% of his strikeouts were looking, and his career average is 28%. That could explain his fairly low 70% contact rate too. The only other explanation would be something with his eyes, but there is nothing to suggest that’s the case. I think it’s probably a great time to buy low on Berkman. Granted, he is 33 years old and could be headed into a decline, but I doubt that’s what we’re seeing here. He will come around eventually, so this is a great time to invest. Go ahead and make a trade for him. *** The Felipe Paulino-as-starter-experiment is over for now, as the young hurler will be returning to the bullpen as soon as Brian Mohler comes off the DL to make his start on Tuesday.
Braves
Since Garrett Anderson went on the DL, Matt Diaz has been getting pretty much all of the playing time in left field. Diaz can help you in the batting average category, as he is clearly capable of batting over .300 give a full season of at bats. However, his homerun upside is in the single digits, and he has virtually no speed; so, he’s not going to help you at all beyond filling a roster spot while you wait for a real outfielder to return. *** The Braves are currently using Kelly Johnson as their leadoff man, probably for lack of anyone better. Then again, they may actually have better, but are hesitating to pull the trigger. Let me explain. Johnson has struggled since the beginning of the season, posting a batting line of .209/.295/.391, which places him just above the level of a stiff. His BABIP is pretty low at .204, so there should be a correction ahead somewhere along the line for Johnson. It could be that they’re waiting for that. They have Jordan Schafer though, and he has posted a line of .261/.407/.420, and he has terrific speed on the base paths. So what is manager Bobby Cox waiting for? Well, mainly he doesn’t want to put the rookie atop the order, because he either doesn’t think he can handle the pressure, or he doesn’t want to hurt Johnson’s confidence so early in the season. With the Braves struggling to score runs, Cox is going to have to do something to shake up the lineup, so it only makes sense to put Schafer and his .407 OBP in a position that can help the team most. So mark my words – Jordan Schafer will be the Braves leadoff man before the All Star break. Then you’ll wish you had him on your roster, so go get him!*** When I think of Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox the first thing that pops into my mind is that he is an “old school” manager. Well, it appears that Cox is more of a forward thinking manager than I thought when it comes to how he uses his game-ending pitchers. Here’s what I mean. Without a doubt, Mike Gonzales is the closer for the Braves, but since he is also left handed (with Eric O’Flaherty being the only other lefty in the pen), Cox also uses him to get tough lefties out in the eighth inning if the game is on the line. In situations where he does that, Cox will then use Rafael Soriano to close. That’s smart baseball management, and something that most managers would never do, insisting that the closer comes in for the end of the game only. For fantasy purposes that means Soriano will have value as a pitcher for both holds and saves, as he will get the chance to close games when Gonzalez is used in high leverage situations earlier in the game. Likewise, Gonzalez will also have some value in leagues that use holds, but his primary function is to save games. Just don’t be surprised or worried when Cox uses him differently than other managers. He’s just being smart about using his talent where it’s needed most. Having both pitchers on your roster wouldn’t be a bad idea though, if you have the roster space.
Nationals
Nationals manager Manny Acta has taken the closers job away from Joel Hanrahan and given it to (Fill in the blank). OK, I’m just being funny. Acta decided he’d had enough of Hanrahan blowing leads and games, especially when they are so few and far between for this club. Truthfully, Hanrahan has not pitched all that badly. There have been two main problems with his work. First, he’s given up too many homeruns. These are probably coming on mistake pitches that are left in the hitter’s wheelhouse, resulting in the long ball. Homeruns are all on the pitcher, so it’s up to Hanrahan to find a way to fix that. Next, when you look at his FIP (fielding independent pitching), he looks pretty solid to me. His FIP tells us what his pitching has been like, removing balls hit into play in the field; a rate of 3.58 compared to his ERA of 8.00 tells me that he’s been victimized by some poor fielding by the Nationals infield. Indeed, the Nationals are tied with St. Louis for the most errors by a team with 22, and the Nationals lead the National League in unearned runs allowed with 19. It’s amazing that all that has transpired in just 23 games. Personally, looking over those numbers, I think Hanrahan deserved another chance, as it was probably the team around him that let him down. But, I digress. The Nats are currently using a combination of Kip Wells, and Julian Tavarez to close games. But they’re just keeping things warm for Joe Beimel to take over once he comes off the DL. However, when all is said and done, I fully expect that Hanrahan will end up getting his job back because none of the Nationals’ other options are anywhere near as good as he is.
Reds
The good news is, Edwin Encarnacion and his .127 batting average are headed for the disabled list due to a fractured wrist. The bad news is, when Encarnacion comes back in about six weeks, what little power he showed over his 19 games played will likely evaporate for the rest of this season due to the injury. Wrist fractures have a history of affecting ball player’s swings and especially their power swings, long after they’ve healed. Temper your expectations of Encarnacion for the balance of the season. While he is out, the Reds will likely go with Adam Rosales to cover the hot corner for them. Rosales is just 25 years old, and has been in the Reds minor league system since 2005, though he’s only played one season above Double A in that time. Last season at Triple A Louisville, Rosales batted .287 with 11 homeruns, 58 RBI, and 70 runs scored in 432 at bats. Rosales has decent running ability and swiped a total of 33 bases and had a 70% success rate. At the major league level Rosales projects as a replacement level type player, not really powerful enough to be an every day corner infielder, and not enough range to be a good defensive middle infielder. At best he’s a NL only league temporary pick up. Mixed leaguers will want to pass him up for someone better.
White Sox
The injury to right fielder Jermaine Dye’s hand doesn’t appear to be as serious as he initially thought. X-Ray’s were negative for any type of fracture, which was what Dye feared when Luis Mendoza plunked him Saturday. Dye is day-to-day for now, and will likely have to miss a few games. That means Brent Lillibridge in right field, unless Ozzie Guillen has another outfielder hidden somewhere. Lillibridge has turned out to be exactly what the Braves thought he’d be; an all-glove, no-hit sort, with no power or speed that isn’t worth the effort to develop. That pretty much sums up his fantasy value too. *** I’ll bet GM Kenny Williams is kicking himself now for not making a deal for a center fielder and leadoff hitter. First DeWayne Wise went down with an injury, then Brian Anderson went on the DL, and now the team is playing déjà vu with the fans by putting Scott Podsednik out there. Podsednik has to be the world’s most over rated, one category player out there. There is little chance that Guillen installs Podsednik at the top of the order, as Chris Getz (when healthy) has done a terrific job there, and there is no reason for fantasy managers to pick him up either. He won’t help you in any category other than steals, and not much there at that. *** The Sox also made another move this week, sending Jerry Owens back to the minors and bringing up Jayson Nix. You may remember Nix as the utility type player from Colorado that was given a shot at the second base job for the Sox this spring. He was hitting well and had a real chance at making the team, but injured his quad and ended up in the minors. I’m not sure what the Sox have in store for him, but with just three regular outfielders on the roster, I’m guessing that they will use Lillibridge as the fourth outfielder and Nix as the extra infielder. Nix can play just about everywhere in the infield except shortstop.
Indians
The Indians sent Travis Crowe back to Triple A and activated outfielder Dave Dellucci from the DL, where he’s been since injuring himself in the first game of the season. Dellucci will likely resume his platoon with Ben Francisco in left field. With Francisco struggling mightily (.239), Dellucci should get plenty of playing time. However, he is not worth a roster spot in any format. *** Despite hitting fairly well during the first month of the season, Travis Hafner’s surgically repaired shoulder is not doing well, and giving him a great deal of discomfort. As a result, the Tribe placed Hafner on the DL to give him a chance to rest it and perhaps build up some additional strength in the area. To replace him the team promoted Matt LaPorta from Triple A Columbus where he was tearing the cover off the ball, batting .333 with five homeruns, and 14 RBI in 21 games. LaPorta has tremendous power and can also hit for average. Suffice to say if he is sitting on the waiver wire in any format he should be picked up immediately. He has the potential to be this year’s Ryan Braun. Let’s put it this way, Hafner may find himself riding the pine more often than not if LaPorta gets hot up here.
Blue Jays
The Jays trotted out yet another young pitcher over the weekend, as Robert Ray made his debut. Ray did a decent enough job in going five and two thirds innings, enough to keep the Jays in the game, which they won against the Baltimore Orioles. But he only struck out two batters, and his control was not very good, as he walked four. Had Baltimore not left so many men on base (11 total), Ray probably would not have faired too well. Truthfully, he isn’t really ready for prime time, and needs more innings in the minors to develop his pitches further and get full command of his fastball. In other words, don’t go running to the waiver wire for Ray, who is not likely to be very effective this season. *** The Jays have also called up another young prospect, one that will likely be worth grabbing too. Brett Cecil is expected to make his debut on Tuesday when the Blue Jays will face the Cleveland Indians. Last year he plowed through three levels of the minors and posted an overall ERA of 2.88, but he’s off to a rough start so far this year. At Triple A Las Vegas he’s 0-3 with an ERA of 8.31, and he’s got an 8:9 BB:K ratio in 17.1 innings. So while I’d normally say to go out and grab him right away based on his dominating pitching last year, I’d advise you to wait and see how he does in his start Tuesday before adding him to your roster. The potential is there, but as Bill Parcells once said, “Potential means you ain’t done nothin’ yet.” *** Despite all the Blue Jays pitching woes the team is winning games, and it’s primarily due to an awesome offensive attack. Several of the team’s hitters have been red-hot all since the beginning of the season, while others are just getting going. One such player is catcher Rod Barajas, who is in the midst of one of the hottest streaks he’s ever had in his career. Over the last ten games, Barajas is batting .474, with seven multi-hit games along the way. In addition to two homeruns, he’s hit six doubles, had ten RBI, and scored eight runs during that stretch. All this came after batting just .211 during the first 11 games. The fun may end soon for Barajas though, as his BABIP is .364 and his GB/FB ratio is .28, both unsustainable numbers for the 33-year old backstop. So a correction is due at some point. In the meantime, his owners should enjoy the ride.
New York Yankees
The Yankees called up Phil Hughes to join their starting rotation after Chien-Ming Wang went on the DL. Looking over his minor league numbers for this season it’s apparent that he has nothing left to prove in Triple A. His record with Scranton was 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA, and a 19:3 K:BB ratio in 19 innings of work. Hughes made his first major league start of this season against Detroit and looked strong, going six innings and striking out six, with two walks. He did not allow a run and ended up getting his first win in the majors since 2007. It looks as though Hughes has finally matured into the pitcher the Yankees thought he would be two years ago. Hughes should be picked up in all formats immediately. *** The only thing that may stop Hughes and the rest of the Yankee starters from getting wins is the dreadful bullpen, which lost another stalwart in Damaso Marte. Marte was placed on the DL over the weekend. He was a key member of the bullpen and one of the primary bridges to Mariano Rivera. The Yanks will now be relying on the likes of Jose Veras and Jonathan Albaladejo to provide more innings in relief. *** Melky Cabrera was reinstated as the primary centerfielder after the Yanks could no longer ignore his hot hitting. Of course, it didn’t hurt that Brett Gardner wasn’t hitting his weight for most of April. Cabrera is in the midst of a seven game hitting streak in which he’s batted .370 with a .433 OBP. Cabrera should be added in all formats.
Stock Up
Matt LaPorta – Indians – LaPorta hits for power and average, and has a shot at sticking in the majors if he continues his hot hitting ways. He was tearing it up in Triple A, and really has nothing left to prove in the minors. The Indians were relying on Travis Hafner to be healthy and hit well this season, but if LaPorta can replace him over the next few weeks, Hafner could find himself riding the pine. LaPorta belongs on somebody’s roster in every league.
Jason Bartlett – Tampa Bay Rays – Bartlett started the season hot, then hit a brief rough patch, but has since taken off again. Over his last ten games he’s batted .361 and his overall season average is a robust .368. He’s also stolen five bases already this season, and has three homeruns. He’s finally putting together the whole package, and could be headed for a career year with the Rays.
Raul Ibanez – Phillies – Everyone (myself included) thought the Phillies were crazy to give Ibanez the contract they did this winter. However, he’s turned out to be one of the best signings of the free agent period this year. So far he’s batting .359 with seven homeruns and 17 RBI. He is one of the top left fielder’s in the NL right now at the ripe old age of 37. He may have found the fountain of youth in Philly too, since he’s also stolen three bases already this season. He hasn’t stolen more than two bases in any season since stealing nine in 2005.
Stock Down
J.J. Hardy – Brewers – What in the world is wrong with Hardy? He’s had a brutal month of April, batting just .156, although he has hit three homeruns. His walk rates are down, and his strikeout rate is through the roof (for him). I’m beginning to think he’s hiding an injury because he rarely slumps like this for so long. He should be benched until he figures things out or comes clean about what’s ailing him.
Adrian Beltre – Mariners – The Seattle Mariners have been a surprise winning team thus far this season, no thanks to Adrian Beltre though. He’s batting a paltry .216 with zero homeruns and a .250 OBP thanks to just five walks in 108 plate appearances. One would think he’d be motivated in a contract year (Remember 2004?), but so far he’s been just miserable.
David Murphy – Rangers – I had Murphy penciled in as a breakout candidate this season. Last year he was on his way to a Rookie of the Year Award when a broken leg cut his season short and ended his chances. He’s been just lost this year, starting off going 0 for 22, and not getting any better since. He’s currently batting .139, and has lost any chance of an every day job in the crowded Texas outfield unless there is an injury. He should probably be on the waiver wire in all formats.