Brian Matusz, SP - Orioles Farm

Hey everybody, welcome back to the Farm Report. This week we’re looking around the minors at the players who should be on your fantasy radar.

After missing last season due to injury, Desmond Jennings is putting on a show in AA Montgomery. He is perhaps the most exciting player in the minors right now, and with 7 doubles, 5 triples, 3 homers, and 9 stolen bases to go along with his .377 average, he is looking more and more like a future fantasy all-star. He has 15-20 HR potential, along with 30-40 stolen base speed and he should bat .300+ at the plate. Jennings has made himself an elite fantasy prospect at this point, and though he probably won’t arrive this year, he should make himself relevant by the beginning of next.

Two guys who have been already pseudo-established at the MLB level are tearing up AAA and should be on fantasy players’ radar right now. Luke Hochevar, the 25 year old former #1 overall pick, was sent down to AAA after struggling last season in the Royals’ rotation. He has had no such problems in Omaha, going 5-0 with an incredible 0.90 ERA, not striking too many guys out, but showing improved command and very good groundball rates. He will be in the Royals rotation sooner rather than later, and probably doesn’t deserve to be picked up right away, except in deeper leagues, but definitely merits watching. Meanwhile in Pawtucket, Clay Buchholz is mowing down hitters with ease. He is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and has allowed just 12 hits in 27 innings, and after struggling with his control initially has really found his groove. His latest performance was a 7 inning, 2 baserunner masterpiece, and Buchholz has proved beyond a doubt he is ready to pitch to major league hitters. He is good enough to warrant fantasy ownership when he gets the call, whenever it is he gets a chance.

The Rangers were ecstatic when Justin Smoak fell in the first round of last June’s draft to number 11 overall, and the college first basemen has been everything they hoped so far this season. The 22 year old switch-hitting first basemen has hit .358/.470/547 in AA, showing excellent contact and plate discipline, and good power so far. I said in my top 50 fantasy prospect lists that once Smoak produces like he’s capable, he would be a top 10 or 5 fantasy prospect, and he’s done everything I asked so far. I would already move him to 6^th overall on that list, Smoak is a big time prospect. The Rangers will have an interesting decision to make with Chris Davis already at 1B, but there’s no stopping Smoak, who will be MLB ready by the beginning of next year. Possibly Davis will move to DH, 3B, or OF.

I profiled Ryan Strieby as a big-time sleeper coming into this season, and he hasn’t let me down. The slugging first baseman leads the Eastern League with his 7 HRs and 23 RBIs, and has continued to show his huge power after hitting 29 dingers last season. At just 23 in AA, he has improved his stock a ton in the early going, but still has a big road block in front of him in Miguel Cabrera. Strieby will likely get looks as a full time DH for the Tigers, and depending on how their season goes, could be up as soon as this fall.

While I’ll take credit for Strieby, I also want to acknowledge the regression from another guy I profiled at the beginning of the season, Todd Frazier. I mentioned Frazier would have a hard time staying at shortstop, and unsurprisingly, in the early going he has already been moved to left field. The reasoning is that he still swings a good enough bat to play full time outfield in the majors, or at least we thought so coming into this season. He has scuffled a lot with his approach at the plate, and his plate discipline and power seem to have disappeared entirely. Frazier has taken a big step back as a prospect in the early-going, and has some major work to do to reclaim his status as a future big-leaguer.

An emerging name this spring is Jason Knapp, a second round pick for the Phillies who was good last year in his debut, and has been maybe even better this year in A ball. The 19 year old has 41 Ks and nine BBs in 29.2 innings, and is rocketing up prospect lists with some good stuff. He is still a couple years away, but bears watching as he could become a top tier pitching prospect.

Great game Friday night between O’s SP prospect Brian Matusz and the Royals’ Danny Duffy. Duffy would end up being the winner, but Matusz was perhaps more impressive, allowing just one ER in seven IP and striking out 13 batters. He was a top 5 overall pick this past June, and the polished college lefty has met expectations so far this year in Hi-A ball. He should be a mid-season promotion candidate, and if he continues to pitch well will be a guy to look out for in the Orioles rotation by next season.

Duffy also pitched great though, allowing just three hits in 6.1 innings while striking out nine. A 20 year old lefty, Duffy is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA at Hi-A and is striking out a batter per inning on the year. He is a good prospect in his own right; not as good as Matusz, who is pretty much a sure major leaguer, but projects as a 3 or 4 starter type, probably about 2-3 years down the road.

Remember to keep sending your questions, comments, and suggestions to mswain2@illinois.edu.