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For Better, For Worse -- March 29, 2007
For Better, For Worse -- March 29, 2007
By Seth Trachtman | Published  03/29/2007 | For Better-- For Worse - (2007)
Seth Trachtman

SG associate editor Seth Trachtman is a seven-year veteran of the fantasy sports writing industry. His work has appeared at countless websites and publications including Fox Sports and Sporting News. He has a first and second place finish the last four years in one of the industry's most recognized expert leagues, Mixed Nuts, and is currently the acting commissioner.

 

View all articles by Seth Trachtman
Opportunity Breeds Optimism
 
 Morgan Ensberg has taken advantage of his opportunities in the majors.

Morgan Ensberg is just one of many players that made a difference for fantasy owners after waiting a long time for his first opportunity.Find out some other names that could do the same entering the 2007 season.

There once was a right-handed third baseman in the Houston Astros organization.This player was drafted in the ninth round of the amateur draft out of the University of Southern California.He spent nearly four full seasons in the minors before his first pre-September call-up at the age of 26. During those four seasons he hit .274-71-251 in 1422 at-bats and moved up minor league levels at a relatively quick pace.Still, this player was blocked in his organization by the likes of a non-Coors Field Vinny Castilla and the immaculate Chris Truby.

Who is this player? Morgan Ensberg.

Of course, Ensberg proceeded to hit .291-25-60 when he finally did get an opportunity in 2003 at age 27 and has hit at least 23 home runs in three of the last four years.Countless fantasy baseball writers and sabermetricians alike vied for Ensberg years before he actually got his first significant major league opportunity.That fact alone brings up one of the most important statutes of fantasy baseball: As fantasy owners, we are mere slaves to the decisions of managers and front office executives.

As such, the best we as fantasy players can do is evaluate team depth and organizational history.The rest of the opportunity game is luck, at least in our case. This formula of evaluation makes for some "lucky" or "unlucky" situations, but these speculative plays are often necessary in order to find breakout players such as Ensberg.

For Better

1. Erick Aybar, SS, L.A. Angels: The finger injury to Chone Figgins not only makes Maicer Izturis the Angels' starting third baseman for the first month but also guarantees a spot on the roster for Aybar.Aybar is the younger brother of Braves utilityman Willy Aybar and no stranger to those who follow prospects.Aybar is a career .311 minor league hitter, and he has stolen at least 30 bases in the minors during each of the last four seasons.Playing time can be tough to come by for American League bench players, but just one season's worth of pinch running opportunities should net Aybar double-digit steals for AL-only owners. And an injury to Orlando Cabrera or Howie Kendrick could allow Aybar to become a poor man's Jose Reyes.

2. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Arizona: The acquisition of Callaspo last year from the Angels for reliever Jason Bulger made Arizona GM Josh Byrnes look like a thief.Callaspo has only gotten better since that trade, finishing second in batting average (.337) among qualifying Pacific Coast League Triple-A hitters last season.He also posted a nearly unheard of walk-to-strikeout ratio of 2:1, another warning sign of his great average potential.While the Diamondbacks have no place for him in the regular lineup, Callaspo will be the D-Backs' main utilityman this season.He could see more than 300 at-bats and help NL-only owners with his average.

3. John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox: Acquired during the offseason from Texas, Danks has been an elite pitching prospect since he was drafted in the first round out of high school in 2003.At first glance Danks' minor league numbers are not all that impressive, but keep in mind that he has been facing more advanced competition at nearly every level.The lefty has had problems keeping the ball in the park in the past, which is especially concerning with a home park like U.S. Cellular Field.Still, the 21-year-old projects out to a middle of the rotation starter at the very least and already has enough polish to handle the majors.As the White Sox fifth starter, AL-only owners might as well take a chance on his upside.

4. Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City: Greinke seemed like a surefire ace after being drafted and looked the same during his rookie season in 2004 with a 3.97 ERA in 24 starts.However, the last two seasons have had some major bumps in the road including bouts of depression last season.Greinke has pitched his way back into the rotation during spring training with his old velocity and Greg Maddux-like control that he showed as a prospect and rookie.Still, most fantasy owners need more convincing than spring training stats.The gut feeling here is that Greinke will reemerge as Kansas City's, especially after perusing this fine piece of journalism from the KC Star.Certainly, Greinke is someone to root for.

5. Mike Pelfrey, SP, N.Y. Mets: The competition for the fifth starter in Queens was one of the most difficult jobs to forecast this spring, but Pelfrey was able to win out.The former first round pick struggled in four starts with the Mets last season, but he has been a dominating force in the minors.In fact, he has been so dominant in his 18 career minor league starts (7-3 with 2.43 ERA) that it is puzzling why he does not get mentioned among the absolute elite pitching prospects in the game anymore.Even without much Triple-A experience, Pelfrey has shown the polish in college and as a pro to be a very solid major league pitcher.Mixed league owners would not be crazy to add him, especially with the run support that he will receive in New York.

6. Jerome Williams, SP, Washington: Williams is already with his fourth organization at age 25.That says two things about him.1) Williams still has plenty of talent and 2) he has done some things to alienate his employers.The former top prospect is definitely one to watch this season, especially in a home park as large as RFK Stadium.Williams had a terrible 2006 season in the Cubs organization, but we must not forget that he has a career 4.03 ERA in 395.1 innings as a major leaguer.Unlike some other pitchers that seem to have lost it in their mid-20s, Williams has not had any major injuries to speak of during his major league career.This is as good a cheap pitching buy for NL-only owners as any.

7. Dmitri Young, UT, Washington: The release of Travis Lee ensures that Young will start the season as the Nationals' starting first baseman.He struggled with personal problems last year, but we must remember that Young hit .271-21-72 as recently as 2005.He will get at least a couple months to show what he has left with Nick Johnson on the DL, and it is not like Young is new to pitcher's parks like RFK Stadium after spending five years bustling in Comerica.Young should be a nice speculative flier for NL-only owners.

Honorable Mention:

Scott Hairston, OF, Arizona: A former top prospect at second base, Hairston will fill Arizona's fifth outfielder role this season.The .323-26-81 line at Triple-A Tucson last season – not to mention his .322/.401/.571 career minor league line - makes Hairston the Morgan Ensberg "Gimme an Opportunity" player of the year for the National League.

Jorge Julio, RP, Florida: The Marlins paid the price for someone with closing experience which begs the question: "Why does a bad team that is at least a couple years away from competing again really need a closer?"For fantasy purposes, Julio is in a low pressure situation and should have a relatively strong hold on the closing job to begin the season.Saves are saves.

Lastings Milledge, OF, N.Y. Mets: Exhibit A: Mets left fielder Moises Alou is going on 41-years-old and played less than 100 games last year.Exhibit B: Right fielder Shawn Green is hitting below the Mendoza Line in spring and hit only 15 home runs last season.So the question must be asked, "Would 400 at-bats this season from Milledge surprise anyone?"





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