Morgan
Ensberg is just one of many players
that made a difference for fantasy owners after waiting a long time for his
first opportunity.Find out some other
names that could do the same entering the 2007 season.
There once
was a right-handed third baseman in the Houston Astros organization.This player was drafted in the ninth round of
the amateur draft out of the University
of Southern California.He spent nearly four full seasons in the
minors before his first pre-September call-up at the age of 26. During those four seasons he hit .274-71-251
in 1422 at-bats and moved up minor league levels at a relatively quick
pace.Still, this player was blocked in
his organization by the likes of a non-Coors Field Vinny Castilla and the immaculate Chris Truby.
Who is this
player? Morgan Ensberg.
Of course,
Ensberg proceeded to hit .291-25-60 when he finally did get an opportunity in
2003 at age 27 and has hit at least 23 home runs in three of the last four
years.Countless fantasy baseball writers
and sabermetricians alike vied for Ensberg years before he actually got his
first significant major league
opportunity.That fact alone brings up
one of the most important statutes of fantasy baseball: As fantasy owners, we
are mere slaves to the decisions of managers and front office executives.
As such,
the best we as fantasy players can do is evaluate team depth and organizational
history.The rest of the opportunity
game is luck, at least in our case. This
formula of evaluation makes for some "lucky" or "unlucky" situations, but these
speculative plays are often necessary in order to find breakout players such as
Ensberg.
For Better
1. Erick Aybar, SS, L.A. Angels: The finger injury
to Chone Figgins not only makes Maicer Izturis the Angels' starting
third baseman for the first month but also guarantees a spot on the roster for
Aybar.Aybar is the younger brother of
Braves utilityman Willy Aybar and no
stranger to those who follow prospects.Aybar is a career .311 minor league hitter, and he has stolen at least
30 bases in the minors during each of the last four seasons.Playing time can be tough to come by for
American League bench players, but just
one season's worth of pinch running opportunities should net Aybar double-digit
steals for AL-only owners. And an injury to Orlando
Cabrera or Howie Kendrick could
allow Aybar to become a poor man's Jose
Reyes.
2. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Arizona: The acquisition of Callaspo last
year from the Angels for reliever Jason
Bulger made Arizona GM Josh Byrnes look like a thief.Callaspo has only gotten better since that
trade, finishing second in batting average (.337) among qualifying Pacific
Coast League Triple-A hitters last season.He also posted a nearly unheard of walk-to-strikeout ratio of 2:1,
another warning sign of his great average potential.While the Diamondbacks have no place for him
in the regular lineup, Callaspo will be the D-Backs' main utilityman this
season.He could see more than 300
at-bats and help NL-only owners with his average.
3. John Danks, SP, Chicago White
Sox: Acquired
during the offseason from Texas, Danks has been an elite pitching prospect
since he was drafted in the first round out of high school in 2003.At first glance Danks' minor league numbers
are not all that impressive, but keep in mind that he has been facing more
advanced competition at nearly every level.The lefty has had problems keeping the ball in the park in the past,
which is especially concerning with a home park like U.S. Cellular Field.Still, the 21-year-old projects out to a middle of the rotation starter at the
very least and already has enough polish to handle the majors.As the White Sox fifth starter, AL-only
owners might as well take a chance on his upside.
4. Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City: Greinke seemed like a surefire ace
after
being drafted and looked the same during his rookie season in 2004 with a
3.97 ERA in 24 starts.However, the last
two seasons have had some major
bumps in the road including bouts of depression last season.Greinke has pitched his way back into the
rotation during spring training with his old velocity and Greg Maddux-like control that he showed as a prospect and
rookie.Still, most fantasy owners need
more convincing than spring training stats.The gut feeling here is that Greinke will reemerge as Kansas City's, especially after perusing this
fine piece of
journalism from the KC Star.Certainly, Greinke is someone to root for.
5. Mike Pelfrey, SP, N.Y. Mets: The competition for the fifth
starter in Queens was one of the most
difficult jobs to forecast this
spring, but Pelfrey was able to win out.The former first round pick struggled in four starts with the Mets last
season, but he has been a dominating force in the minors.In fact, he has been so dominant in his 18
career minor league starts (7-3 with 2.43 ERA) that it is puzzling why he does
not get mentioned among the absolute elite pitching prospects in the game
anymore.Even without much Triple-A experience,
Pelfrey has shown the polish in college and as a pro to be a very solid major league pitcher.Mixed league owners would not be crazy to add him, especially with the
run support that he will receive in New
York.
6. Jerome Williams, SP, Washington: Williams is already with his fourth
organization at age 25.That says two
things about him.1) Williams still has
plenty of talent and 2) he has done some things to alienate his employers.The former top prospect is definitely one to
watch this season, especially in a home park as large as RFK Stadium.Williams had a terrible 2006 season in the
Cubs organization, but we must not forget that he has a career 4.03 ERA in
395.1 innings as a major
leaguer.Unlike some other pitchers that
seem to have lost it in their mid-20s, Williams has not had any major injuries
to speak of during his major league
career.This is as good a cheap pitching
buy for NL-only owners as any.
7. Dmitri Young, UT,
Washington: The
release of Travis Lee ensures that
Young will start the season as the Nationals' starting first baseman.He struggled with personal problems last
year, but we must remember that Young hit .271-21-72 as recently as 2005.He will get at least a couple months to show
what he has left with Nick Johnson on
the DL, and it is not like Young is new to pitcher's parks like RFK Stadium
after spending five years bustling in Comerica.Young should be a nice speculative flier for NL-only owners.
Honorable Mention:
Scott Hairston, OF, Arizona: A former top prospect at second base, Hairston will fill Arizona's fifth
outfielder role this season.The
.323-26-81 line at Triple-A Tucson last season – not to mention his
.322/.401/.571 career minor league line - makes Hairston the Morgan Ensberg
"Gimme an Opportunity" player of the year for the National League.
Jorge Julio, RP, Florida: The Marlins paid the price for someone with closing
experience which begs the question: "Why does a bad team that is at least a
couple years away from competing again really need a closer?"For fantasy purposes, Julio is in a low
pressure situation and should have a relatively strong hold on the closing job to begin the season.Saves are saves.
Lastings Milledge, OF, N.Y. Mets: Exhibit A: Mets left fielder Moises Alou is going on 41-years-old
and played less than 100 games last year.Exhibit B: Right fielder Shawn
Green is hitting below the Mendoza Line in spring and hit only 15 home runs
last season.So the question must be
asked, "Would 400 at-bats this season from Milledge surprise anyone?"