Which milestone will Chris Davis reach first, 40 home runs or 200 strikeouts?

There’s big news from The Knot Hole Gang; the weekly column will now run twice a week! In order to bring you more news from around MLB, there will now be two editions of The Knot Hole Gang each week. On Thursdays, news from around the National League will be featured, along with the usual Stock Up/Down segment. On Saturdays, it’s the American League, along with a new segment that brings you Mighty Max’s FFRS picks for the upcoming week. As you may know, Mighty Max is the super computer analyst here at Sports Grumblings, and each week he grinds out player rankings using more than 30 different factors in his analysis. In addition to weekly rankings, Max also cranks out daily recommendations based on those same elements. Normally, you’d have to be a subscriber to Sports Grumblings for access to Max’s work, but I’m going to give you a look at the coming week’s rankings with each Saturday column. So now that we’ve got that bit of news out of the way, let’s head out to our usual spot outside the outfield fences, and see what’s going on at the ball yard.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Now that the Diamondbacks have installed new manager A.J. Hinch at the helm of the major league club we should expect to see major changes in the roster, lineup, and the starting rotation. Conor Jackson was placed on the DL due to an ongoing illness that will require some investigative testing, and the team promoted slugging first baseman Josh Whitesell to replace him. But that’s just the beginning of the roster changes; nobody’s job is safe. The main reason Hinch was elevated to manager from his former job as head of player development is that he’s worked with many of the younger players currently on the major league roster. The hope is that he can get them to perform like they did in the minors, and do the things they did that got them promoted in the first place. But when the team needs help, you can expect Hinch to reach for players he knows and believes in. That’s why Wednesday night’s game against the Reds featured Double A players Bryan Augenstein, making his major league pitching debut, and outfielder Gerardo Parra, a versatile 21-year old who can play all three outfield positions and was tearing it up in the minors with a .361 average, three homers, 12 RBI, seven stolen bases, and 23 runs scored in 29 games. Augenstein pitched well, though he took a loss after giving up five runs on eight hits, with two walks and three K’s in six and a third innings. He’s not a power pitcher, but uses his fastball to set up a mix of sliders and changeups thrown at varying speeds. He did a nice job locating, but got hit hard in the second and third times through the Reds lineup. He’s probably a future reliever, and not really fantasy-worthy right now. Parra took the third pitch he got from Johnny Cueto and deposited it into the right field bleachers. Cueto was trying to bust him inside to move him off the plate, and appeared to throw one right into Parra’s happy zone. Parra is probably worth a flier in NL only leagues, but should only be monitored in mixed formats at the moment. More changes are coming, and any Diamondback player that is currently under performing could find themselves out of the lineup or back in the minor leagues. Outfielder Chris Young certainly falls into that category, as does Chad Tracy, and several other regulars. Keep a close watch out for more changes in Arizona in the weeks to come.

Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel bumped struggling shortstop Jimmy Rollins from his usual leadoff spot down to fifth in the order. Rollins will get fewer at bats there, but Manuel needed someone at the top who will get on base and make fewer outs. Shane Victorino will now handle the leadoff duty, temporarily boosting his fantasy value. As soon as Rollins busts out of his season-long slump he’ll be returned to the top of the order where he belongs. In the meantime, Rollins’ fantasy value is at an all-time low, creating a buying opportunity for the savvy fantasy manager. Make an offer now to the Rollins owner in your league, because this opportunity isn’t likely to last long. Rollins will bust out sooner rather than later. In fact, in the two games since the move Rollins is two for seven with a homer and a stolen base, raising his batting average to .200. *** Jayson Werth is busting out again in a big way after slumping badly during the last half of April. Over his last ten games Werth is batting .375 with four homeruns, 11 RBI, 12 runs scored, and five stolen bases. Of course, four of those thefts came in one game. With games against the Nationals, Yankees, and Marlins on the Phillies schedule for the rest of May, Werth should see plenty of opportunities to increase his stolen base totals. Those three teams are among the worst teams in their respective leagues in terms of stolen bases allowed. *** Cole Hamels appears to be over his early season troubles. In his last three starts he’s compiled an ERA of 2.63 and struck out 17 batters in 13.1 innings. Those totals include one start in which he only pitched 3.1 innings before he had to leave the game due to a slightly sprained ankle. His ankle is fully healed at this point, and Hamels is worth starting in all formats going forward. *** There’s a good chance J.A. Happ will get a start for the Phillies this weekend when they play a doubleheader against the Washington Nationals. Happ has been used strictly in relief this season, though he started in the minors. He has not given up a run in his last 8+ innings of work covering five games.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brew Crew are still looking for a more reliable bench, especially since the only bat off the bench they seem to be able to count on belongs to Craig Counsell, who’s batting .348 when called upon for a start. To that end, the Brewers signed the versatile Frank Catalanotto to a minor league deal. After some time in the minors to get his timing back don’t be surprised to see Catalanotto brought up. When he arrives, NL only leaguers may want to consider him for bench duty as the occasional plug in. *** Rickie Weeks has been on a tear for more than three weeks now. Over his last 20 games he’s batted .310 with seven homers, 17 RBI, and 19 runs scored. He’s been helped along by a BABIP of .323 and a line drive percentage of 23%, roughly 8% higher than his career average. His current streak isn’t really sustainable, but you should enjoy the ride while he’s hot. *** The Brewers are preparing for the upcoming inter-league games by promoting slugging third baseman Mat Gamel from Triple A Nashville. Gamel was raking at a clip of .336 with eight homeruns and 31 RBI in 33 games. The plan is to have him get some at bats as a pinch-hitter before having him DH in inter-league games.

Washington Nationals

The Nat’s closer situation is still very much in flux, and at this point it’s anybody’s guess who is going to get the next save chance; not that there are many chances to go around mind you. Joe Beimel got a shot at one earlier this week and spit the bit by coughing up a three-run dinger to the Giants’ Pablo Sandoval. Beimel doesn’t really fit the profile as a closer with a career K/9IP ratio of 5.0, and he’s really more of a LOOGY than anything else. The tandem of Julian Tavares (1 sv.) and Kip Wells (2 sv.) along with deposed closer Joel Hanrahan are all likely to be in the mix for a closer by committee going forward. All of which means that if you’re trawling for saves you’d best not fish in the Nationals’ waters. *** The trials and tribulations of Lastings Milledge took another sad turn earlier this week when surgery on his broken ring finger virtually guaranteed that we wouldn’t see him in the majors any time soon. He was demoted a few weeks back to get his act together after completely bombing out as the Nationals leadoff man and starting center fielder. By the time he heals and proves he’s ready to be promoted it could be August, making Elijah Dukes’ job security pretty much iron clad for now. *** After two starts in which he simply dominated hitters, Jordan Zimmerman has fallen on hard times in his last three turns on the mound. Over his last 17 innings his ERA is a putrid 8.15, and he’s given up four homeruns while batters are teeing off at a .296 clip on him. The good news is his K:BB ratio has still been strong at 18:5, and his BABIP of .337 indicates a bit of bad luck; not surprising since the Nationals are the worst fielding team in the National League. Zimmerman will continue to have his ups and downs. If you own him you’ve got to be prepared to take the good with the bad.

Colorado Rockies

Brad Hawpe just keeps getting it done. He currently leads the Rockies in RBI with 27, as well as in batting average, OBP, and slugging with a line of  .362/.441/.649. Unlike many of his teammates, Hawpe doesn’t have disparate split stats either. Over the course of his six seasons in Colorado his home line is .289/.379/.521 with 47 homeruns, and his road line is .283/.377/.469 with 46 homeruns. The only big differences between the road and home have been triples (14 at home, 5 on the road) and RBI (218 at home, 150 on the road). His current BABIP of .387 indicates that he’s been pretty lucky so far, but his contact rate of 85% and line drive percentage of 21% both support a higher BABIP, so while a correction is in order it may not be overly steep. We could be seeing a career year from the 30-year old outfielder. *** Jorge De La Rosa has pitched much better than his record (0-3) indicates. He’s been somewhat of a hard luck pitcher, mainly because he’s only gotten 3.33 runs of support from the offense when he pitches. Over his last five starts he’s totaled 31 innings with an ERA of just 2.61, with batters hitting just .191. He’s struck out 32, but he’s also walked 14 batters, which may be one of the factors in his hard luck record. If he can continue to limit the homers (just two so far) and cut down the free passes he could be worth a look in mixed leagues for those needing strikeouts. *** Dexter Fowler has been in a slump since the calendar turned over to May. In his last eleven games he’s struck out 12 times after striking out just 12 times during the entire month of April (18 games). He’s batted only .189 and only stolen one base, mainly because his OBP has been very low at just .244. The next few games will be critical for the rookie, as he needs to show he can make the adjustments at this level to break out of his slump now that word has gotten around on how best to pitch to him. Until he does figure it out, his owners should consider benching him.

San Francisco Giants

Travis Ishikawa is slumping badly despite going 6 for 10 with a couple of walks in the three game series against the Nationals, which raised his batting average to .241, the highest it’s been since April 11^th. What’s most worrisome is that his BABIP is .345 and his line drive rate an unsustainable 27%, so the increased batting average may not last for long.. The Giants have been giving Pablo Sandoval some looks at first base along with Rich Aurelia, and either or both of them could supplant Ishikawa as the starter if he doesn’t bust out soon. Ultimately, it could be Jesus Guzman that takes Ishikawa’s job away. Down at Triple A Fresno, Guzman is mashing away, batting .361 with six homers and 29 RBI in 33 games. Ishikawa was expected to have his coming out party this season, but it hasn’t happened thus far. With the Giants struggling to score runs, don’t be surprised to see them promote Guzman to try and jumpstart the offense; especially if they continue to get good pitching from their starters. *** “The Big Unit” Randy Johnson goes after career-win number 299 this weekend. It’ll be a tall order since Johnson be facing off against none other than Johan Santana. Fortunately, he’ll be pitching at home where his stats have been just fine as opposed to the road where he’s been very “un Unit-like.” At home he has an ERA of 3.00, with 32 strikeouts in 24 innings, and batters are hitting him at a .202 clip. Compare that to the road, where his ERA is 11.37 with seven strikeouts in 12 innings, and batters hitting .373 against him. He’s also walked 13 on the road versus just three at home. Numbers like that make it imperative to bench Johnson when he’s not pitching at home my fantasy friends.

Stock Up

Nick Johnson – Washington Nationals – Johnson has always been a great hitter, but we all know his biggest and most consistent drawback has been his health. Once again he is healthy and hitting like he can. During the month of May so far he is batting .326, with 14 RBI and 7 runs scored. It’s probably not going to last, but if you need a first baseman that can hit for a high average and will drive in runs, then Johnson fits the bill. Just make sure you have a back up plan.

Chris Davis – Texas Rangers – April’s numbers perfectly illustrated why Davis was so over valued in drafts this spring. Davis batted .200 and struck out a league leading 34 times and walked just five times. He still managed five homeruns through that mess, but that’s about the only positive thing. Over the course of the 13 games in May, Davis is batting .298 with five homers, 11 RBI, and ten runs scored, and looking much more like the hitter that tore it up last season. Davis could easily belt 40 home runs this season, especially if he keeps up his current pace. But there could be a serious price for fantasy owners to pay in the batting average category, where Davis is almost certain to be streaky at best. Ride those streaks when they come, bench him when they’re over.

Manny Parra – Milwaukee Brewers – Parra lost all four of his April starts, but really didn’t pitch as badly as his record looks. That said, he’s won two of his three starts in May, with an ERA of 3.00, and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched. He’s getting more runs support too, now that the Brewers’ offense is finally hitting on all cylinders. Parra makes a nice pickup if you’re looking for strikeouts and wins for your fantasy team.

Stock Down

Nick Swisher – NY Yankees – Swisher had one of his best months ever during April 2009. He batted .312 with seven homers, 19 RBI, and 21 runs scored, and helped carry the Yankees while A-Rod recuperated and Mark Teixeira floundered in his new uniform. May has been all about regressing to the mean, and it’s been a mean regression to say the least. Since May first Swisher has three hits in 25 at bats for a .100 batting average. He’s struck out sixteen times in ten games against just five walks. Swisher’s batting average for the season has dropped almost sixty points down to .252, very close to his career average of .244. See what I mean?

Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks – This is a time a big change in the Diamondbacks clubhouse, and if Chris Young doesn’t step up his game a few notches, he could find himself riding buses to his road games and playing for crowds in the thousands instead of tens of thousands. Young has been awful all season, but he’s been especially poor in May with an average of .158 over his last 11 games, with zero homers, one RBI, and two runs scored. For all intents and purposes, he is useless in fantasy terms, and there seems to be no end in sight.

Garrett Atkins – Colorado Rockies – Atkins is another player who’s been just awful all season long. Scouts are saying his bat speed is way down this year, raising the possibility that he’s hiding an injury of some sort. He’s certainly not a buy low target, and in fact, might be more of a “dump now” candidate. A batting average of .103 simply isn’t going to get it done.