Juan Pierre, OF - Dodgers

Now that we’re well into May now is the time to start assessing your team and begin to look for weaknesses.  Often unless you’ve drafted really well you’re going to need something.  Maybe it’s a statistical category, maybe it’s a position that you’ve got a real dud at with no serviceable replacement available on the wire.  Its also time that the trade market starts to heat up as other teams begin the same process.  

What’s always interesting is ‘perceived’ versus ‘actual’ trade value, especially in keeper leagues.  I’ve found in most of my keeper leagues that players of 25 years of age and younger tend to get overvalued.  This of course provides a fantastic opportunity to gain valuable players for trade in the draft and on the wire.  I usually try to go with younger players with potential for my bench even when I’m not playing keeper leagues. The leagues I play in tend to ignore the high potential kids for some reason in the draft and then ask for them when they take off or are called up in May. 

Proven fact: asking for a player when his value is highest is a bad move.  Like right now, I was asked to trade Ryan Zimmerman in a keeper league.  How in the heck can you trade a guy riding a 30 game hit streak and who seems to be finally living up to his potential this season?  I suggest a one for one for Jake Peavy, he scoffs as he thinks Peavy is a top 5 starting pitcher and he won’t trade that for Zimmerman.  My counter argument to him was simply that Zimmerman is a top 5 3^rd baseman right now and that if he needs hitting and I need pitching this makes sense.  Am I selling high?  Yes.  Is he buying high?  Well yes.  He doesn’t want to part with Peavy and I can’t say that he’s wrong to think that.  Zimmerman’s not going to maintain a .370 batting average all season although he’s surely turning a corner and will make for a great keeper going forward.  Fact is Zimmerman’s .370 average was all for my team.  Now he likes what he sees in Zimmerman and asks for him in a trade despite the fact that there is little chance that the Nationals 3^rd sacker keeps this pace up for his fantasy team.  Its funny because you’re reading this thinking this is obvious you don’t buy high!  However, I get trade offers on a weekly basis from people following this same line of thinking.  Don’t get distracted by a player’s early season high numbers.  You want the guys who are underperforming (obviously after doing some statistical home work) because they are more likely to do better than they are now going forward.  You have to remember, you own that player’s stats from the moment he hits your roster.  You don’t get to keep Zimmerman’s .370 average.  You get the .275 or whatever he hits the rest of the way to bring it back to .310 or whatever he finishes the season at.  As important as it is to buy low, its equally important not to buy high.  With that said, people asking for Joey Votto and Adam Jones in trade offers might as well cancel those offers.  Both of these players are quite talented and will cost too much in a trade to acquire right now with the way they are performing.  Instead focus on guys like Adrian Beltre, under valued older players who are underperforming but surely won’t hit .210 in a contract year. 

Well that’s enough of a anti-buy high rant for today. Let’s look at some undervalued Treasures:

Juan Pierre, OF Dodgers

For 50 games, Juan Pierre is going to be very valuable.  In case you’ve been living in a bubble for the past week, Dodgers outfielder Manny Ramirez was recently suspended for some pre-season drug use.  The specifics to me are not important and have been well documented elsewhere. What’s important to know is that he’s not going to be back for 50 games which opens up full time at bats in the outfield.  This of course opens the door for Juan Pierre, who is no slouch.  In case you’ve forgotten, we’re talking about somebody that is a career .300 hitter and with only 375 at bats last year stole 40 bases.  In 2007, he stole 64 bases and since 2001 has never stolen less than 40 bases. If you’re in need of speed in mixed leagues, Pierre’s going to make a great addition for the next 2 months especially given the Dodgers lack of a power game with Manny out. I expect all of the Dodgers speedsters (including Rafeal Furcal and Matt Kemp) to get the green light from Joe Torre while Manny is suspended.  He’s a must add in all leagues, especially those feeling the need for speed.

Luke Hochevar, SP Royals

I’m not one to play it safe in deeper leagues.  I mean I play it safe when it comes to my early round draft picks but when it comes to my free agent pick ups I like to gamble a bit.  Something about the high upside players lures me in every time.  Maybe its because a lot of the time the talented players end up surprising the baseball world.  Especially so when they’ve lost their ‘first call up’ shine.  Now that being said, Royals starter Luke Hochevar is not as risky as most think.  He’s got excellent pedigree being a former first overall draft pick and posting some nice overall numbers in the minors (3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.4).  This isn’t his first time with the big club either as he started 22 games for the 2008 Royals posting a 5.51 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.  Whoa.  Stop there right?  Hochevar’s fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 4.43 suggests that he should have been a bit better than his 5.51 2008 ERA suggests.  He’s been outstanding in 2009 at AAA with a 0.90 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP coupled with 30 strikeouts against 10 walks.  Do I think shallow mixed leaguers should pick him up?  You might want to think about it.  As in, I’d have him on my radar, or if I had a bench spot I’d and a pitcher to drop I’d pick him up.  However, deep leaguers should be all over this high upside player especially AL only leagues where pitchers of this calibre rarely are found at this point in the season.  Of course while I’m writing this Hochevar is throwing beach balls out there for the Oakland A’s.  Yes he gave up 8 earned runs in 2 innings against one of the weaker offences in the American League.  I’m still sticking to my guns though.  He’s still a deep league option with potential for better.

Last week we looked at recently recalled prospects Matt LaPorta of the Indians and Brett Cecil of the Blue Jays.  Like Brandon Wood before him, LaPorta seems to be suffering from nothing more than a manager’s preference to limit his at bats. Last week, he’s had a total of 16 major league at bats in which he had one home run and a pair of hits.  Nothing flashy but this is mostly due to at bat limitations. The Indians are not having a good season (12-21 as of this writing) and they can only help themselves by giving at bats to LaPorta going forward.  Cecil has been quite the opposite flashing stellar numbers and getting the full confidence of manager Cito Gaston early on (although this is mostly due to the fact that the Jays really have no other options).  Cecil has worked 14 innings allowing just 1 run and has struck out 12.  Stay the course with both of these kids, as LaPorta will get his at bats because the Indians stink and Cecil will have some rough outings.  

Well that’s all for me this week.  Happy hunting!