
Mighty Max has Juan Pierre as one of his top performing outfielders for Week 7.
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Welcome to the Knot Hole Gang, American (League) Style! In case you missed the announcement a couple of days ago, your favorite column, er, my Mom’s favorite column, is now going to be published twice a week. I’ll look at the NL news in the Thursday edition and the AL news on Saturdays. One big difference between the two, other than the different leagues of course, is that on Thursday the show ends with the old Stock Up/Down feature. The Saturday edition will feature a new, er, feature; a sneak peek analysis of the weekly FFRS rankings from Mighty Max, Sports Grumblings’ super computer. Rather than try to explain, just check it out at the end of this column. For now let’s just head on out to the center field fences and see what’s going on down at the ball yard.
Boston Red Sox
“I don’t feel like talking today guys. Just put down that Papi stinks.” Those were the words of David Ortiz after his 0 for 7 performance that tied a team record due to 12 men being left on base. The Red Sox went on to lose the game to the Angels that night, and all Big Papi could do was hand his head in shame; and justifiably so. Over his 144 at bats this season, Ortiz is batting just .202 and has yet to hit a home run; and now he’s been benched, most likely for several games. The good news is that this has to be rock bottom for Ortiz. His fantasy value will never be lower than it is now. There is no question that if an opportunity comes along to get Ortiz on the cheap you should do so. Stash him on your bench and wait. It could be a week or two, or even a month or two, but eventually Ortiz will produce. He could recover to hit 20 homers with a batting average just south of .300. It’s a gamble, but one worth taking for this former fantasy king. *** Daisuke Matsuzaka finished his third and final rehab start with Triple A Pawtucket on Friday night and will rejoin the Red Sox next week. He’s currently penciled in to start next Thursday’s game Toronto at Fenway. *** Julio Lugo is finally playing every day and taking advantage of his opportunity. He started playing daily about eight games ago, and in that time is batting .414 with a .452 OBP, 2 RBI, 6 runs scored, and a stolen base. He’s been aggressive on the bases, which leads me to believe he is healthy again. The hot hitting actually started in spring training, so I’m encouraged that Lugo has rediscovered his once sweet stroke. He may not hit for the kind of power he once did, but the Red Sox don’t really need him for that down at the bottom of their order. If you’re in need of a middle infielder that can hit for average and maybe steal a few bags along the way, then Lugo is worth a flier. At the very least he’s a strong injury sub, or fill-in for leagues with daily transactions.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have promoted outfield prospect Nolan Reimold due to the injuries to Luke Scott and Adam Jones, but it’s unclear just how long he will be staying. Manager Dave Trembley is on record as saying he wouldn’t promote Reimold unless he could play him every day, and while there appears to be a place for him right now, neither Scott nor Jones look to be going on the DL. In addition, the O’s need to bring back pitcher Rich Hill to make a start Saturday, and need to move someone in order to free up a roster spot for him. My guess here is that Scott goes on the DL to give his ailing shoulder a chance to heal. Jones’ injury seems minor by comparison, and the Orioles cannot afford to ship out a pitcher, so Scott going on the DL makes the most sense. However, there is also a possibility that the Orioles move Lou Montanez or Felix Pie back to the minors too. Either way, it appears Reimold is here for at least the short term. Reimold was simply raking down at Triple A Norfolk, batting .394 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 21 runs scored, and six stolen bases in 31 games. He appears to be a legitimate power threat, as twenty of his 43 hits were for extra bases, a significantly high percentage that points to talent to burn. Grab Reimold if you can get your hands on him. If he gets hot during his visit with the big club, they will be hard pressed to send him back down, and will find him at bats if they have to. *** Aubrey Huff is heating up again after posting a decent April, then going through a mini-slump for a week or so. Over his last eight games he’s batting .333 with four homers, ten RBI, and seven runs. He’s also walked seven times and only struck out twice in his last 34 plate appearances, giving him an OPB of .471. He’s traditionally a slow starter and better second half performer, so it’s good to see him hitting well early.
LA Angels of Anaheim
The Angels appear to have weathered the perfect storm of obstacles to success that have befallen the team during the first month or so of action. The players have rallied to overcome the anguish of the death of Nick Adenhart, (as much as that’s possible) and their injured starters are returning one by one. Ervin Santana was the first, making his season debut earlier this week. Next up is John Lackey, who was activated today and will start against Texas. All they need now is for Kelvim Escobar to rejoin the fold to make their starting rotation whole. Vlad Guerrero is still healing, but should be back in about two weeks. The point of all this is that the Angels are about to take off and bury their competitors in the AL West. The Texas Rangers have enjoyed a good ride these first six weeks, but the party is just about over. From a fantasy perspective, Santana, Lackey, and eventually Guerrero and Escobar, will show some rust in their first few games, but after they’ve shaken it off, you should expect them to return to their projected performance levels, and should activate them accordingly. *** In the meantime, the Angels have gotten great performances from their young pitchers. None more so than Matt Palmer, whose record stands a 4-0 with an ERA of 3.38. His last start, against the Red Sox, was his best to date. He struck out eight batters, walked just two, and even though he allowed a season high four runs, he managed to finish the game off in style and beat one of the best teams in baseball. Palmer will remain in the starting rotation, with Shane Loux moving to the bullpen now that Lackey and Santana are back
Minnesota Twins
It’s taken a whole six weeks, but Joe Crede’s back is finally acting up. Crede had to leave Friday’s game after five innings due to “back stiffness” and will be out of the lineup for at least a few games. It’s a shame too, because Crede was just starting to show signs of life at the plate after batting .200 through most of April. Over his last 13 games Crede was batting .278 with four homeruns, 11 RBI, nine runs, and he was the hero of two consecutive games, driving home the winning runs in the final inning. The Twins and Crede are insisting this won’t be a long term thing, but when it comes to back injuries there really is no way to be certain. If you’re a Crede owner, make sure you have a back up plan. *** Another batter that is really heating up in a big way is Mike Cuddyer. Over his last 15 games he’s batting .340 with two homeruns, 12 RBI, and 10 runs scored. Cuddyer was beset by injuries for most of last season, really sapping his power, leading to an off year of production. But he is fully healthy now, and should return to the kind of production we saw from him in 2006, when he batted .284 with 24 homeruns and 109 RBI. *** This just in…Joe Mauer is amazing! *** Scott Baker’s current stat line is fairly ugly, with a record of 1-4 and an ERA of 6.95. But the scariest looking number is actually pretty small, 2.1, which is the number of homeruns he’s given up per nine innings pitched. That’s eight homeruns in 33.2 innings of work. But, (you knew that was coming, right?) seven of those homers came in his first two starts, and since then his underlying skills have really started to gel. For example, over his last four starts his K/9IP has been 7.2, just shy of the 7.4 he posted last season when he looked like the ace of the Twins staff. In addition, his BB/9IP over his last four starts was a miniscule 1.03, and if you toss in the first two starts it’s still just 1.6; by far the best of his career, as is his K/BB ratio of 4.17 for the season. All of which means that Baker has actually pitched much better than his record indicates, and has been somewhat unlucky, except for those ugly first two starts. So if you’re a Baker owner, hang in there because eventually he will begin to win games.
Cleveland Indians
Jhonny Peralta is finally starting to hit on a regular basis after a brutal first month or so. He currently has an eight game hitting streak going, has hit safely in nine of his last ten games, and has batted .415 over his last ten games. The best news of all is that Peralta is also cutting down on his strikeouts. In April Peralta struck out once out of every three at bats, and struck out at least once in 15 of 19 games during the month. During May, Peralta has improved to one strikeout every five at bats, and currently has a streak of four games in which he has not struck out at all; all of which points to a batter that has turned the corner and is about to go off like a firecracker at the plate. The buy low window on Peralta is about to slam shut, so if you were hoping to wrest him away from his owner in your fantasy league, you had better do it quickly. *** Jake Westbrook remains on track to return in late June/early July from Tommy John surgery. He’s someone to stash away for use later this season. He looked really good prior to the injury last season, and should come back strong once he shakes off the rust. *** Matt LaPorta is starting to see regular playing time, although his hitting has yet to take off. Be patient with LaPorta, perhaps putting him on your bench until he starts to hit. Once he figures things out he should be a very productive fantasy commodity.
Tampa Bay Rays
Troy Percival may have lost his job as the Rays closer, and justifiably so. Percival is sporting an ERA of 5.40, isn’t striking batters out at anywhere near his usual rates, and was called in to a non-save situation just two games ago. What’s more, Joe Nelson got the call for a save opportunity Saturday and could be the next member of the Rays bullpen to take the closer’s helm. Nelson has an impressive K/9IP of 9.2, but his BB/9IP of 6.5 is pretty ugly, and his HR/9IP of 2.2 is downright distressing. So while Nelson may indeed become the closer, he may not have the job long if he continues to walk batters and/or cough up the long ball. It might be best to avoid the closer melee on the Rays for now and await the next pitcher to seize the job. *** B.J. Upton had himself quite a week, and it’s about darn time. Did he really think it was okay to have a second season of doing absolutely nothing? I mean, the chances that he will get to hit seven post-season homers again are very slim after another season of nothingness. But I digress. He had hits in five out of seven games, along with three multi-hit games. He batted .303 with two homers, nine runs scored and four stolen bases, which is the kind of production we’ve been expecting of Upton. The buy low window on Upton is still open, but not for very long. Make a deal for him now because I expect we will be talking about an extended hot streak before long.
Might Max Sez
Each week, Mighty Max the supercomputer performs calculations on every single player to come up with his player recommendations for the week. He also does daily recommendations, but for this column we will look exclusively at the weeklies. Max takes more than 30 factors into consideration when performing his algorithmic analysis, and I challenge you to find a more accurate predictor of performance anywhere. Each Saturday, I will give you just some of Max’s results to ponder, avoiding the more obvious names in favor of perhaps unearthing a gem or two that you may not be aware of. So, here is what Mighty Max Sez for Week 7:
First Basemen – Carlos Pena is the pick for top performer among first basemen, with Max picking him ahead of even Albert Pujols who is actually ranked fifth this week. Also, look for Nick Johnson to continue his hot hitting ways, while Ryan Howard puts up only the tenth best performance at the position. Max also thinks that Travis Ishikawa will be among the worst performers this week.
Second Basemen – Robinson Cano is the top performing hitter at the keystone this week, with Ian Kinsler right behind him. Chase Utley will rebound from the mini-slump he’s been in, while Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips will both have tough weeks, not even finishing among the top ten at second base. Clint Barmes is also going to have a very poor performing week.
Shortstop – Felipe Lopez will remain very hot (listed at short because he is fantasy eligible there), and Jimmy Rollins will begin to show some signs of life this week. JJ Hardy’s troubles will continue, as will Cesar Izturis’s. Orlando Cabrera should put up a better week than most with a top ten performance and Yunel Escobar will also have himself a big week.
Third Basemen – Jorge Cantu’s slide will continue during Week 7, and Russell Branyan will return to form. His rapid decline is almost inevitable, and will be very steep according to Max. Scott Rolens’s good fortune will begin to taper off this week. Chipper Jones will be the top performer at the hot cormer.
Outfielders – Two of the top three OF are Tampa Bay Rays, with Carl Crawford and B,J, Upton topping the list. Look forward to a big week from Eric Byrnes and Adam Dunn, but Brad Hawpe will cool off a bit this week, as will Raul Ibanez. Magglio Ordonez is also there, but that’s because Max did not know that Ordonez will miss at least two games for a personal matter this week. So that is something to keep in mind. Max also likes Curtis Granderson and Bobby Abreu to be top performers. If you’re looking for a couple of sleepers – how about Juan Pierre, Josh Willingham, and Andruw Jones all being among the top performing outfielders this week?
Catchers – Max likes Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer to continue their strong performances, but he also is expecting big weeks from Russell Martin and Kenji Johjima who have both struggled to date. On the opposite end of the spectrum, don’t expect much production from Chris Ianetta, Yadier Molina, or Jeff Mathis this week.
Next week I will take a look to see how well Max did. Have a good week, y’all.