Utterly
unemployable as a English major, Josh had nowhere to turn but the
not-so-fantasy-world of fantasy sports. Putting down the
books that damned him to a lifetime of menial jobs, he set forth on a
voyage that would take him through the crests and troughs--the
surprises and letdowns--the failures and successes that at once madden
and excite us all. So obsessed did he become that he decided
to shun the fickle mistress fantasy football for the games
which allowed for his drive and determination to beat his opponents
into bloody pulps. For him there were more successes than
failures, though, and that is where you and he shall meet.
While
you watch the players you deemed key to your success this season let you down,
it can be easy to forget about the upside they can still bring you.
In
the case of a Ricky Nolasco or Scott Kazmir, it can be difficult to
stomach the early season failures that are harpooning your pitching staff.Some of those shortcomings can be chalked up
to bad luck (Nolasco’s FIP is 3.44 lower than his actual ERA, and while the
defense behind him isn’t likely to get much better the .387 BABIP is obscene),
and some can be explained by a pitcher taking a possibly permanent turn for the
worst (Kazmir’s velocity is down across the board, and his K/BB is a putrid
1.28—PANIC!!!).
If
you own an early-round positionally-scarce player like Jimmy Rollins, you are cursing his .216 AVG and .582 OPS (read that again) while holding onto hope that
he remembers that he can steal a base or hit a home run.Not only has Rollins laid waste to that
second round draft pick for six fantasy weeks, but odds are a backup shortstop
was deemed unnecessary with Jimmy Rollins in the fold.
So
while the prospect of picking up Khalil
Greene or Orlando Cabrera or Fausto Carmona may not be enticing,
there are players out there who can address some of your early season problems.
Baker’s
ERA resides within spitting distance of 7.00, and his record is a rather
undesirable 1 – 4.Why, pray tell, would
this writer be recommending his addition?
Well,
his WHIP—a better indicator for how a pitcher is performing anyway—is still
just 1.31.While it is higher than his
1.18 WHIP from last season, it is only .02 points higher than his career
WHIP.His K/BB ratio is actually higher
than it ever has been before at 4.17, so the control would seem to be
there.His BABIP is .300.The average velocity on his pitches is very
much in line with his career numbers.
The
keys to his early season struggles have lied in two areas.In his first two starts off the DL, he
allowed seven home runs driving his HR/9 up to a robust 2.14.Adding insult to the injury that is the home
run allowed is Baker’s ridiculous 54.9% strand rate.That is good for fourth-worst amongst
pitchers with at least 30 IP.His
peripherals seem to indicate that everything is still in line from last season,
aside from the criminal LOB% and the HR/9, both of which one can reasonably
expect to be corrected over the course of the season.
While
the journeyman slugger may be 33 years old, his body certainly doesn’t have the
wear and tear on it that an everyday player would have.He has only played in more than 100 games
twice in his 12-year career, which is almost entirely responsible for his
inconsistent history.The one thing he
has done is crush the ball when he makes contact.
Heading
into this season, 133 of his 460 career hits were home runs.While his average has always been pedestrian
(he was a career .230 hitter heading into this year), he had managed an .812
OPS before being ceded an everyday position by the Mariners this year.He has rewarded them with a
.300/.361/.608/.969 split.While the
ratios surely will not continue to be as high, his nine home runs and extra-base
power is absolutely for real.His absurd
.365 BABIP will be tamed despite his aptitude for power that has resulted in a
.298 ISO, but he can be realistically expected to hit 30 home runs if he gets
to play as much as Seattle
is letting him.
Jose
Guillen –
LF,RF – Kansas City Royals (21% Y!, 33% Y! Plus, 11,7% ESPN)
Watching him run, it is easy to see why he
has only legged out three doubles on 21 hits that have stayed inside the park
thus far this season.Normally, there
would not be a recommendation coming from this writer to pick up a free
swinging aggressive hitter who labors to reach first base, but something has
changed with Guillen.
Thus far this season, Guillen has drawn 14
walks in 100 plate appearances.For the
mathematically challenged, that is a 14.0 BB%. If such a fact was dropped on a
Jose Guillen biographer who had been in a coma for the past six months, he
would have laughed in your face.His
career best before this was 6.5% in 1999 and 2007.While he hasn’t collected an XBH since May 3rd,
he has maintained his average and, more importantly, his on-base percentage,
indicating an evolution in his approach at the plate that should help curtail
his tendencies toward long dry spells that tend to accompany his torrid hot
stretches.
While control issues have always plagued
Ubaldo Jimenez, his WHIP on the season is an abnormally high 1.50.When coupled with his 0.00 HR/9 that can go
nowhere but up, one could question the sanity of someone espousing the virtues
of a pitcher with those numbers.With a
K/BB of 1.70, a WHIP of 1.50, an ERA of 4.73, an unsustainably low HR/9 rate,
and a LOB% that will stay right where it is at 67.7%, it could be hard to get
too excited about Jimenez.
What has not been mentioned is that his BABIP
is .337, which plays a rather sizeable part in his FIP of 3.39.Furthermore, he believes that he figured out
a kink in his delivery that has resulted in a much more impressive last three
starts.In those starts, he has posted a
2.14 ERA with a 15/3 K/BB ratio and five earned in 21.0 IP.He has allowed a mere 22 base runners in
those 22 innings.If he truly has fixed
the issues in his delivery and he has harnessed his arm, then Jimenez’s live
arm could pay dividends to bargain-hunting fantasy owners.
It is never sexy to pick up a player whose
SLG (.362) is lower than his OBP (.384), but there is some value to adding
Morgan.His average currently sits at
.304, which seems very much in line with what he has put up in limited time the
two years prior.His BABIP of .372 is a
bit worrisome, but in the majors he has put up BABIPs of .356 and .367, so the
.372 is not an extreme outlier.Regardless
of whether or not the AVG comes down a bit, his BB% is up this season to a
respectable 10.4%.
Much of Morgan’s value is derived from his
speed and his ability to get on base.He
currently has ten stolen bases, but his success rate is only 67%, both on the
season and in his career.For those
scouring the waivers, Morgan will steal bases and so far is not killing owners
in 5x5 leagues using AVG or OBP, but if he doesn’t get the stolen base success
rate above 70% the green light could turn orange for the Pirates outfielder.
Now, just once this week, take some time away
from fantasy baseball and reconnect to those people you’ve been ignoring.Your children need fathers, too, dude.
Josh Duggan welcomes
your comments at mister.josh.duggan@gmail.com.If you are going to heave insults in his
direction, at least be funny and creative.He is also the author of a Kansas City Royals blog, Royalscentricity, and a
pop culture blog, Inconsiderate Prick.
