Will Andre Ethier be able to adjust to life without Manny Ramirez in the lineup?

Welcome to The Knot Hole Gang – NL edition, where we take a little deeper look at the news around the Senior Circuit of MLB and try to figure out what it means from a fantasy baseball perspective. The first inter-league games of the season are being played this weekend, so in general, NL teams playing in AL parks will require an extra hitter for their lineups, and AL teams playing in NL parks will have a pitcher flailing at the offerings of senior circuit hurlers. Can someone explain to me why we have inter-league games? Oh, never mind, let’s just head out to our usual place at the outfield fences to see what’s going on at the ball yard, and leave the debate about the merits and faults of inter-league play to The Grumble.

New York Mets

There may be some real trouble brewing for the Mets after what happened in the bottom of the third of Wednesday’s game. Of course, I’m referring to the removal of Jose Reyes from the game with a reoccurrence of his calf stiffness symptoms. If they lose Reyes, replacements will be manning more than half of their infield. The Mets are already using some combination of Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, and Jeremy Reed to cover first base, with Carlos Delgado gone for at least two months. The Mets’ primary starting catcher, Brian Schneider is on the DL. Alex Cora is on the DL with a torn ligament in his hand that may require surgery, so the Mets will be turning to Ramon Martinez to cover shortstop if Reyes ends up on the DL; a very stark, but realistic possibility. Martinez made two errors as Reyes’ fill-in for Monday’s game, and is a light hitting, slow-footed, Quad A type that has spent more time in the minors than anywhere else over the last five years. It should be obvious, but I’ll write it anyway; you want no part of Martinez. *** I mentioned Daniel Murphy as being part of a combination at first, but it appears that Murphy has been anointed as the primary first baseman for the Mets. According to the NY Newsday, Murphy will no longer play in the outfield. In light of his error prone performances out there, that’s probably a good idea. He’s done well at first so far, and the added position gives him more fantasy value. However, he doesn’t have the power you want from a corner infielder, and will not have a position at all once Delgado returns. So Murphy is looking like a ten-week injury replacement, plug in player for NL on leagues. *** After a couple of rough starts to begin the season, Mike Pelfrey has really started to come around. The three balks that were called in his last start were caused by what Pelfrey describes as “the yips.” They have reared their ugly head for him in past seasons, but rarely last more than a game. He should be fine for his next start after working out his “yips” during a side session Wednesday. Over his last five starts Pelfrey is 3-1 with one no decision. His ERA over the five starts is 3.48, and he’s gradually lowered his walk totals, and has allowed no more than two walks in a game in three of his last four starts. Pelfrey still needs to raise his K/9IP, which currently stands at a very low 2.4. Until he gets it up to at least 5.5 K/9IP, he will not be a viable mixed league pitcher.

San Diego Padres

It came as no surprise that Jake Peavy nixed the deal to go to the Chicago White Sox. Peavy is a family man with deep roots in Southern California, and he’s expressed a strong desire to remain in the National League. Peavy likes to hit, and for a pitcher he’s not too bad. In fact, he’s improved as a hitter just about every season, gradually cutting down on his K% each year. But for Peavy it’s probably more about being involved in every aspect of the game, and perhaps helping himself out with a hit now and then. From a pitching standpoint he’s been his usual effective self on the mound this season, but has suffered mightily from a lack of run support. (No surprise there either.) His Padre brethren have only scored an average of 2.85 runs per game, but that doesn’t begin to describe how little support he’s gotten. In seven of nine starts he has gotten three runs of support or less. In four of those seven games he’s gotten two runs or less. If Peavy is looking for a team to provide him with more run support, Chicago is probably not that team. They are dead last in the American League in runs per game at 3.95. Only the Diamondbacks and yep, you guessed it, Padres have provided worse run support for their pitchers. *** The Padres did manage to consummate one deal Thursday. The Friars sent Jody Gerut to the Milwaukee Brewers and brought Tony Gwynn Jr. to San Diego to patrol his father’s former stomping grounds (well, sort of – Petco didn’t exist back then). Gerut returned to MLB last season after missing the better part of two seasons with injuries that kept him completely out of baseball, and put up some very good numbers considering that half of his games were at Petco. (.296, 14 HR, 296 AB) If Gerut gets regular playing time with Milwaukee he’s worth a roster spot in NL only leagues, but mixed leaguers should wait and see how often he plays and how well hits before acting. Unfortunately, Tony Gwynn Jr. didn’t inherit his father’s incredible batting eye and is therefore of little use in fantasy. *** When the Padres sent Josh Barfield to Cleveland in exchange for Kevin Kouzmanoff many folks felt that the Indians were fleeced in the deal and that Kouzmanoff was the much better player. He certainly was last season, but this season is changing that opinion quickly. Barfield hasn’t played with the ML club much these last two seasons, but could see more action in the days ahead if the Indians move around their infield as rumored. Barfield could become the better half of a second base platoon. Meanwhile, Kouzmanoff is flailing away at the plate in San Diego. He’s actually hit pretty well over the last week (7 for 22, .318, 1 HR). But for the month of May he’s only hitting .211, a number that coincides with his season figures (.238, 3 HR, .287 OBP). In fact, the only reason Kouzmanoff isn’t riding the pine is that the Padres don’t have anyone else. Keep an eye on Kouzmanoff, as he has the potential to improve and could be of some help in the power department if he gets untracked.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were dealt a seriously harmful blow with the loss of Omar Infante, who broke a bone in his hand when he was hit by a Manny Corpas fastball this week. Infante covered multiple positions for the Braves and was batting a tidy .349 with 11 RBI, and 13 runs scored. Most importantly, he played everywhere in the infield except first base, as well as the corner outfielder positions. Kelly Johnson will benefit most from the loss of Infante, as second base was where he was played most often. *** Jordan Schafer’s hot start has cooled considerably during May. Since May 1^st his batting average has dropped almost 60 points to .217. He hit two homers in the first three games of the season but none since, and he stole one base at the end of April, was caught once and has not attempted a steal since. So much for the Rookie of the Year talk. Granted, he could bounce back and finish the season strong, but I just don’t see it happening right now. He’s not worth much as a fantasy commodity either. If he gets hot again, consider selling high because it doesn’t look like this will be his year. *** Tom Glavine threw a simulated game recently and continues to make progress in slowly building back his arm strength. Barring a setback, we could see Glavine back with the Braves in June.

Chicago Cubs

The loss of Aramis Ramirez has created problems for manager Lou Pinella who is trying to spark the offense and still keep a strong defensive team on the field. Mike Fontenot has been the primary third baseman since Ramirez went down, but Fontenot has been slumping to the tune of 2 for his last 26 at bats. Pinella is convinced that Fontenot is struggling to balance the defensive needs of third base and his offense at the plate. Pinella tried a different approach Thursday, with Ryan Freel playing third base and Fontenot moving over to second base. The big loser in this realignment is Aaron Miles, who appears to be getting dealt out. If Freel doesn’t produce in his new role as third baseman, look for Bobby Scales to get a shot. *** Ted Lilly has been sharp over his last four starts, with a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 2.96 and batters only hitting .212 off him. His K rate and BB rate are both in fine form, but there is one disturbing trend afoot that could come back to bite him and his fantasy owners. Lilly has given up a homerun in all but two of his starts this season. He’s allowed a homer in each of his last five starts, and a total of 10 homers in 50.1 innings this season. Lilly allowed 32 dingers last year, the most of any year in his career, and just shy of most allowed in MLB (35). Keep an eye on this trend if you are a Lilly owner. *** There have been rumors afloat that Lou Pinella wants to free up more at bats for power hitting 1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir. One possible way to accomplish that would be to move Alfonso Soriano to second base, opening up left field for Hoffpauir. No word from Pinella about whether he would consider such a move. In terms of fantasy, Soriano would be much more valuable with second base eligibility.

LA Dodgers

With all the talk about how David Ortiz has faired since Manny Ramirez left town, I though it might be interesting to see how some of the hitters in the Dodgers lineup have faired since Manny was suspended.

While this is a somewhat simplistic look at a possible “Manny effect” one can draw a few observations from these numbers. Orlando Hudson continues to hit well and have a good season. I did not look at his runs scored totals, but that’s probably one area of production that has fallen off, if any, for Hudson. James Loney and Matt Kemp also seem little affected by the loss of Ramirez, though both have moved around in the lineup several times this season and especially since the suspension. Rafael Furcal is in a bit of a funk since Manny has departed, but I think that’s more a function of Furcal being in a general funk all season than anything else. There have been several 10 game stretches where Furcal has under-performed, so this is probably just another blip on the radar for him. That leaves two remarkably different sets of numbers from both Andre Ethier and Russell Martin. Martin has also been in a funk for most of the first six weeks or so. It’s oddly coincidental that his sudden upswing in production started around the time that Ramirez was suspended. Martin’s drop off in production last season seemed oddly timed with the arrival of Ramirez as well. Could we have some sort of “anti-Manny effect” going on with Martin? We’ll have better idea as the season progresses and Ramirez returns to the team after serving his suspension. If Martin’s production continues until then, and drops off after Manny is back, then that will pose an interesting question. The worst victim (for lack of a better word) of Manny’s disappearance from LA’s lineup appears to be Andre Ethier, whose numbers have fallen off considerably since the day after Manny began serving his sentence. Ethier’s average has tumbled nearly 100 points in just 11 games. Perhaps he is pressing to replace Ramirez in the lineup. But the real reason for his lack of production could be similar to the effect David Ortiz claimed when Manny left Boston. Ethier is probably getting different types of pitches to hit, not getting enough fastballs, or seeing only breaking pitches. Regardless of the cause, Ethier has not adjusted to life without Manny, and his fantasy owners should take notice.*** Hiroki Kuroda has begun his rehab assignment with the Dodgers’ Class A affiliate as of today. He is two or three rehab starts away from returning to the team, and should be back by mid-June at the latest. *** Chad Billingsley is throwing a lot of high pitch-count games, something that Joe Torre tends to do with younger starters. Keep an eye on Billingsley for signs of fatigue if you have him on your fantasy pitching staff. After June 1^st last season, Billingsley threw 110+ pitches seven times. This season he has already eclipsed that mark in three games, and got as high as 123 pitches in his last start. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins bullpen continues to be a problem for the team, mainly due to over use. A few telltale signs of this are apparent. First, Kiko Calero has already made 21 appearances for the team, and here we are just 42 games into the season. At this pace Calero could make 90+ appearances, which would shatter the team record of 78 set by Braden Looper back in 2002. Second, the Marlins had to call upon Cristhian Martinez to pitch with a one-run lead against the Diamondbacks Thursday. Martinez promptly gave up two runs and the team went on to lose 4-3. That’s a tough spot to put in a pitcher that has never played higher than Double A level, but it became necessary because of how burned out the bullpen staff is. Martinez went back to the minors after the game. How harsh is that? Third, the Marlins recently had a stretch of more than 20 games where their starters did not get a win. This was primarily due to those starters not working deep enough into games and handing them over to a tired bullpen. If the Marlins don’t get themselves a new pitching coach soon, Marlins pitchers will become useless for fantasy purposes. I get lots of questions about Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad, and Josh Johnson, and why they haven’t won many games. The answer really lies with the Marlins bullpen. Although, Volstad has been hurt by the long ball. He currently has a HR/9IP rate of 1.5, which is way too high. He did strikeout nine batters in his most recent outing, so his K/9IP is improving. *** Cody Ross was recently benched for being non-productive in the outfield, and it appears that the message got through. Ross recently had a six-game hit streak going, but it ended when he left Thursday’s game early with a migrane headache. *** Matt Lindstrom continues to have control problems, walking far too many batters for a closer. His BB/9IP is up to 6 at this point, and his fly ball rate, normally very low, indicates that he’s elevating his pitches. Unfortunately, that’s led to either too many walks or homeruns. Almost 15% of his fly balls are leaving the building, which is incredibly high; especially for a pitcher whose usual HR/FB rate is usually down around 2%. Lindstrom’s 5.40 ERA should slowly improve. He added two scoreless innings during Wednesday’s double-header; one to get the save in Game 1, and one in the nightcap.

Stock Up

Mat Gamel – Milwaukee Brewers – Gamel was brought up from the minors specifically to be the DH when the Brewers face the Twins this weekend, and during the interleague week to come. He’s only had six at bats, but has made the most of them with a single, double, homer, and five RBI, along with a pair of walks. The guy can flat out rake and we should get a good taste of it this weekend.

David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox – I know, you’re saying to yourself – “he must be kidding.” Well, I’m not kidding. Ortiz finally got the monkey off his back, with a homerun in his 150^th at bat of the season. What’s even better is that even when he didn’t connect on later pitches, he at least looked like he belonged out there. Interleague week could be the cure for what ails him. In the six games he’s played against the Mets he is batting .385 with a homer and two RBI., and in general thrives during interleague play.

Robinson Cano – NY Yankees – Cano continues his hot hitting ways. The second baseman is batting .317 on the season, and .308 over his last 10 games. He’s also homered in his last two consecutive games and has eight dingers on the season. Cano has also historically done well in interleague play and should have himself a great weekend against Phillies pitchers who have a tendency to serve up homerun balls.

Stock Down

Brett Myers – Philadelphia Phillies – Myers has already given up 12 homeruns this season in just 50 innings, putting him on a pace to cough up something like 50 before all is said and done this year. Pitching in the new Yankee Stadium could end up being a disaster for Myers. The formula here is flyball pitcher plus home run park, equals blowout victory by the Yankees. Seriously though, the way balls have been jumping over the right field wall this season I would be very surprised if Myers didn’t give up at least one homer in his start this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give up three or even four dingers either.

Nick Swisher – NY Yankees – “Swish” is up to the same goofball antics in the Yankee clubhouse that so endeared him to the White Sox players. However, he always seems to pull this crap when he’s slumping badly. Right now he’s hitting .132 during the month of May while patrolling right field for the Yankees. Perhaps he should channel some of that playful energy into his game and stop screwing around. George Steinbrenner would never have tolerated Swisher’s low production and lack of focus back in the day. I guess Hank is softer than originally thought, because he doesn’t seem to have much to say.

Brandon Lyon – Chicago White Sox – Lyon was supposed to be the closer in Chicago, but at this point he isn’t even good enough for mop up duty. His ERA over the six innings he’s pitched in May is 10.50. He’s walked four and struck out just three while giving seven runs on eight hits and a pair of homers. I’m sure the Pale Hose would love to unload Lyon and his contract now. I doubt there would be any takers.