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Leading Off: May 24th
Leading Off: May 24th
By Seth Frankel | Published  05/24/2009 | Leading Off | Unrated
Seth Frankel
A lawyer in his spare time, Seth Frankel is a University of Michigan graduate and hopelessly obsessed Mets fan, who is a newcomer to Sports Grumblings.  He's been hooked on fantasy sports since junior high school, and before that, Strat-O-Matic baseball.   

View all articles by Seth Frankel
Leading Off: May 24th

Justin Verlander, Detroit

My deepest apologies to my loyal reader(s?) about last week’s unexpected absence. Sometimes the day job gets in the way, and there is really nothing one I do about it. But, now I am back in the saddle and energized after a dramatic Mets win in the top of the 9th on Saturday against the Red Sox. Omir Santos off of Jonathan Papelbon? Really? Delightfully unexpected!

 

Amazingly, we have reached Memorial Day already. This is a critical juncture for fantasy teams, as people will inevitably be frustrated with their team and start looking forward to 2010. If you are planning on contending, however, you can get about four months of stats in exchange for some future value, sometimes even only a minor leaguer (I had one NL-Only league where someone traded Johan Santana for Pedro Alvarez, albeit to much uproar and protest). Now is the time to pounce. And with that said, onto the two-start options for the week:

 

 

Justin Verlander, Detroit. At Kansas City, at Baltimore:

Verlander is a bit better pitcher than we often recommend in this space, but he is worth noting this week as an absolute stud. 2008 was a bit of a lost season for Verlander, who was expected to build on his impressive 2007, but instead regressed to the tune of an 11-17 record, 4.84 ERA, and 1.403 WHIP. He has turned things around back around this year, with a 4-2 record, 3.99 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, and an impressive 77 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. What is even more impressive is his last five starts, where he has compiled a 4-0 record, with 52 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings, and an ERA of 1.02.

He has not faced the Royals or Orioles this year yet, but historically (even during his mediocre, at best, year in 2008), he absolutely dominates both of these squads, with a 10-1 record, and 2.10 ERA in 15 starts. Although I would expect you to be starting Verlander anyway, especially during this current run, if you are not for some reason, you need to rethink your lineup this week.

 

Phil Hughes, New York Yankees. At Texas, at Cleveland:

I won’t lie. I loathe the Yankees. I hate them enough to the point that I do not necessarily want the Phillies to lose to them over the weekend, despite the fact that the Phillies losing would be good for the Mets. They really are my second least favorite team in all of sports (as a Michigan man, Ohio State obviously takes the cake). So seeing Hughes struggle in his major league career thus far, especially when the Yankees reportedly could have had Johan Santana in exchange for Hughes and others, has not caused any sad feelings from this writer. That being said, I have to recommend Hughes this week, as a viable two-start option. He is fighting to convince the Yankees to keep him in the majors, and faces two teams that he actually pitched well against back in 2007 (admittedly in only one start, the smallest of small samples). At the very least, the way the Yankees are playing these days, he should give you a decent shot at two wins. It is a gamble, to be sure, but I would roll the dice this week with Hughes.

 

Sean Marshall, Chicago. Vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.

Marshall has been solid this year, pitching out of the fifth spot of the rotation for the Cubbies. He gets two teams that he has not pitched against this year in the Pirates and Dodgers. The Pirates are batting about .240 against lefties this year, which gives you reason to like Marshall this year (of course, they only bat a little over .250 against righties, so they are really simply a weak offense). As for the Dodgers, their offense, unsurprisingly, has decreased since Manny Ramirez was suspended for performance-enhancing substances. The Dodgers still have plenty of weapons, of course, so it is not as if this is a piece of cake, but I like Marshall’s chances this week.

 

Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays. At Cleveland, vs. Minnesota:

Garza is certainly making the leap this year, with a  4-2 record and a 3.41 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP to start 2009. What is even more surprising is his increase in strikeouts, with nearly a strikeout per inning. He has started once against Cleveland this year, going six innings with two earned runs, although he has historically struggled against Cleveland in the past. He has never started against his former mates in Minnesota though. With him taking a leap, and ready to fill the void that Scott Kazmir has left with both his disabled list stint (and his rough year so far), Garza is a strong bet this week. Even moreso when you factor in that the Rays are averaging nearly six runs a game. ‘Tis folly to chase wins, but Garza has a great opportunity for two this week.

 

John Maine, New York Mets. Vs. Washington, vs. Florida:

You did not think I would recommend a Yankee without recommending a Met, now did you? For some reason, Maine has been one of my favorite pitchers on the Mets, despite the fact that he is maddeningly inconsistent. Well, I do know the reason – it was basically due to that 2007 start against the Marlins on the second to last day of the season, when he flirted with the first no-hitter in Mets history, striking out double digits, in the midst of the Mets first epic collapse. Anyway, Maine has historically been very impressive against the Marlins, with a 4-1 record in eight starts, to go with a 2.49 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 47 innings. He has been somewhat less impressive against the Nationals historically, but still has compiled a 6-2 record with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP. Since he has begun to turn things around after a miserable start, with three wins in his last five starts, he looks like a good bet to put up a nice two-start week in the friendly confines of Citi Field.

 

And finally this week, we continue our Arlington/Coors/Great American/Citizens Bank watch, for the home games at the hitter-friendly stadiums where marginal players become the next Barry Bonds (the new Yankee Stadium’s application for admission into this prestigious group is currently pending approval):

 

Arlington: Yankees, Athletics   

Coors:  Dodgers, Padres

Great American: Astros

Citizens Bank:  Marlins, Nationals



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