Rich Hill, Orioles

Entering Saturday, I had been to four Mets games so far this year. With a 4-0 record, it was clear that I was the key to the Mets avoidance of another late-season collapse and a playoff run. As it turns out, however, even my good luck is not enough to overcome Tim Redding and a lineup featuring such studs like Ramon Martinez, Wilson Valdez, and Angel Pagan. Not surprisingly, the Mets fell to the Marlins and my undefeated streak was ruined. In other news, the Yankees took over first place again this week (much to my chagrin), someone finally scored on Chris Carpenter, and Baltimore Orioles catching phenom Matt Wieters was called up to the majors, where he did not immediately hit five home runs like his fellow prospect Nolan Reimold. He was undoubtedly booed aggressively in Baltimore for this failure (wait, that kind of thing only happens in New York?). Now, onto the two-start options for the week.      

Livan Hernandez, New York Mets, at Pittsburgh, at Washington:

If you would have told me that Hernandez would have graced this column at any point this year other than for sheer comedic value, I would have thought you were nuts. In fact, when the Mets signed Hernandez, I assumed that it would only be a catastrophe that would even have him make a start in a Mets uniform. Somehow, he has started the year 4-1, with a 4.28 ERA, despite featuring a blazing 83 mile per hour fastball. And so, despite not posting an ERA lower than 4.00 since 2005, he appears to be making a run this year.

He gets a nice set of matchups this week, as he'll visit the Pirates and the Nationals, two teams that he pitched well against earlier this year. In two starts, he has won twice with an ERA of 1.80 and 11 strikeouts in 15 innings. He even threw a complete game, 127 pitch effort against the Nationals his last time out. Of course, there is tremendous risk, since he still is Livan Hernandez, but this may be as good a chance as you'll get to capitalize on his early season success. 

Todd Wellemeyer, St. Louis Cardinals, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Colorado:

Wellemeyer surprised a lot of people last year, overcoming a brutal career to date by going 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA. He has suffered from some wildness this season, which is partially to explain for his disappointing results (5.02 ERA and 1.640 WHIP). That being said, he has started to turn it around his last two times out, going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.235 WHIP. He will get the Rockies and Reds at home, two teams that struggle mightily when not playing in their own friendly confines. The Rockies  and Reds hitting numbers drop across the board on the road, from batting average to on base percentage to slugging percentage. Seize on that opportunity, and put Wellemeyer out there for a two-start week.

Rich Hill, Baltimore Orioles, at Seattle, at Oakland:

It is amazing to think that this is the same Rich Hill who went 11-8, with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.195 WHIP and nearly a strikeout per inning for the Cubs just two seasons ago. Since then he has been a disaster, completely unable to find the strike zone, at any level. He obviously walks way too many batters, and there is tremendous risk with this current version of Hill, but if ever there was a week to start him, this is the week, as he takes his show out west. He'll be matched up against the two worst offenses in the American League in the Mariners and the A's. And if the A's offense wasn't bad enough, they barely top  the Mendoza line against left-handers this year.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies, at Houston, at St. Louis:

If there is one thing you can count on Jimenez for, it is inconsistency. He took a step forward last year, but has seemingly plateaued this season, putting up a 3-6 record, with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.441 WHIP thus far in 2009. He still strikes out nearly a batter per inning, but his big issue is controlling the walks.  He gets the Astros in his first start this week, a team he has had success against in a small, three start sample size in his career (2-0, 3.38, 1.232), including a win earlier this year in seven innings of one run ball.  The Cardinals are a slightly different situation, especially when Jimenez has to face-off against Albert Pujols.  On the plus side, Jimenez is not particularly prone to the long ball, so if he keeps the walks in check, success may follow this week. High risk, high reward.   

Jarrod Washburn, Seattle Mariners, vs. Baltimore, vs. Minnesota:

Washburn has had a bit of a resurgence this year in nine starts for the Mariners, going 3-3 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.203 WHIP. The Orioles have been a slight thorn in Washburn's side over the course of his career, although he still is above .500 against them. The Twins, on the other hand, have been a source of great success for Washburn, as he is 7-6, with a 3.26 ERA, and a 1.105 WHIP. Earlier this year he tossed 8 shutout in a winning effort against the Twins, continuing his lifelong success against them. He is a decent option this week.

Bartolo Colon, Chicago White Sox, vs. Oakland, vs. Cleveland:

After a disastrous 2006 and 2007, Colon made a comeback of sorts last year for the Red Sox, performing fairly effective in seven starts. He has exchanged his Red socks for White this year, and has picked up where he left off in 2008, going 3-4, with a 3.80 ERA so far this year. He is certainly not the pitcher he once was, when he won 18 games or more four times (including two twenty win seasons), but he can still be serviceable. Only the Oakland offense is a match-up that can be considered “favorable” this week, as Cleveland has been scoring runs at a rate much more impressive than their last place record may suggest. Colon has had success against both of these teams over the course of his career, going 6-4, with a 3.70 ERA, and a 1.222 WHIP against Oakland, and a 4-2 record, with a 3.49 ERA, and a 1.245 WHIP against Cleveland lifetime. He seems like a good choice this week.

And finally, we take another look at our Arlington/Coors/Great American/Citizens Bank weekly watch. It's a quiet week this week, with all of these teams on the road, except for one:

Arlington: None.

Coors:  None.

Great American: Chicago (NL).

Citizens Bank:  None.

That will do it for this week. See you next time.

Questions? Comments? sethf@sportsgrumblings.com