Kelvim Escobar, Angels

Patience is usually rewarded in the game of fantasy baseball although not every time and definitely not as a rule.  For those that endured two long months of David Price and Matt Wieters being held in the minor leagues you know what I’m talking about.  You probably drafted them early or paid fairly decent dollars in an auction draft for these ‘can’t miss’ prospects.  Unfortunately, most of us and a lot of others didn’t expect Price and Wieters to not only start in the minors at the beginning of the season but to last so long down there as well. It is these types of draft day conundrums I try to avoid.  I mean, trying to guess at what a particular organization is going to do with their top prospects. It wasn’t that long ago that the following was the general pre-season thinking concerning these two players:  Matt Wieters will start over Greg Zaun, come on its Greg Zaun for pete’s sake! The Orioles are rebuilding and Wieters is an Evan Longoria type young talent.  David Price is a shoe in for the Tampa rotation.  Have you seen Andy Sonnanstine pitch? Even still who else in the Tampa organization is going to take the fifth starter slot?  I think with the addition of the state of the poor economy, both Tampa and Baltimore opted for the safer long term financial bet. 

Either way, at this point in the season if you’ve waited out Price and Weiters you are finally being rewarded as the top two prospects in the game have finally been called up and likely for good.  As a player I tend to err on the side of caution in the early months especially with my draft picks.  I’m not suggesting by any means that this has panned out for me every time.  For example this season for some reason I felt Andy Sonnanstine was going to make for a nice play in deeper leagues.  He wasn’t going to strike out a lot of guys but he had a nice BB/9 and played for a pretty strong offensive club with a good bullpen.  In other words, Sonnanstine was a guy I was hoping would get me a few sneaky wins from a near end of the game draft choice.  Turns out I was pretty wrong about Sonnanstine, mostly because he’s way too hittable.  At this point in the season he’s doing more damage than good, since he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys to begin with, and Tampa has struggled to win games.  I don’t like to cut a guy I like but frankly the results just haven’t been there. Frankly, I should have cut him long ago for the flavour of the week pick up.  How long can you really wait on a player with limited upside?  I’d suggest not as long as someone like Andy LaRoche. The other LaRoche brother has put together a pretty nice campaign so far despite an abysmal start to the season.  Its extremely likely Andy wasn’t drafted in your league and still might be out there on the wire. LaRoche was a guy I liked mostly because he was once a highly touted prospect and had not yet received regular at bats for a significant amount of time.  At just 25 years of age, I still think he could become a pretty good player, especially for those that play in on base percentage leagues.  At the end of the day, as a rule when you’re treasure hunting, hang on to highly talented players longer.  If nothing else, it’s a lot less painful than watching some other team benefit from your quick trigger finger.

For this week’s Treasures let’s look at a couple of injury prone pitchers who make for nice low risk/ high reward pick ups.

Kelvim Escobar, SP Los Angeles Angels

It seems like forever ago when Escobar was actually fantasy relevant.  That’s because he spent the entire 2008 season on the disabled list after going under the knife early in the season.  What do I like about Escobar?  Well, you have to like the skill set.  He’s a pitcher who always has boasted nice strike out rates (career K/9 of 7.66) and low ERA (career 3.66) and WHIP (alright not as good but still decent 1.37 career WHIP) numbers with the obvious caveat when healthy!  So why take the plunge?  Well at this point in the season its all about what a player can give you from here on out.  Escobar still has #2 starter potential and while healthy he can flat out help any pitching staff. My suggestion is while he’s pitching he should not be on waiver wires in any league.

Carl Pavano, SP Cleveland Indians

Gasp!  Or is it a guffaw I’m looking for?  No seriously, he’s actually somebody I’m suggesting will make for a nice pick up in an AL only league.  Yes, really. Yes, THAT Carl Pavano. This is the same guy the Yankees signed for megabucks and got nothing, literally (how about 140 innings pitched over three SEASONS!).  Anyway, Pavano’s numbers have actually been better than what the standard measures indicate. He’s posting currently a 5.49 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Nice numbers right?  Well no but let’s take a closer look.  He’s got a 7.14 K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) which has netted him 50 strikeouts in just 63 innings. Pavano’s also walked just 13 batters and is boasting a stellar 1.86 BB/9.  This is great, but what’s really indicative of future success is that he’s been suffering from some bad luck on batting average on balls in play (.341) and strand rate (a left on base percentage of only 65%).  These numbers should correct themselves more to the average (.300 BABIP and a 70-71% LOB%) which combined with his effectiveness around the strike zone should lower Pavano’s currently below average ERA and WHIP.  An even more useful measure is fielding independent pitching (FIP) of which Pavano currently has a 3.78 mark.  All of these numbers suggest that a rebound is due for Pavano.  Trust me you can do a ton worse in deeper leagues than a player with something to prove with numbers that suggest he can turn it around.

Last week we looked at Angels outfielder Juan Rivera and potential Tampa closer Dan Wheeler.  Rivera has been fantastic going 8/15 for a .533 over the past week including a home run.  I’m sure the Angels will try to find at bats for Rivera but remember Vladimir Guerrero has now returned to take over the DH position for the time being.  Somebody will have to sit in LA and I doubt highly its Vladdy.  Still, I think with his performance lately Rivera will get a fair share of outfield at bats.  Wheeler got a hold over the past week pitching 2/3 of an inning and giving up to situational saves to lefty Randy Choate.  Choate has never had a ton of success at the major level and as a 33 year old who sports an 87 MPH fastball I would speculate that manager Joe Maddon was just playing averages.  Stick with Wheeler as he’s still the best bet to get saves in that bullpen but be mindful that this might turn into the dreaded CBC (closer by committee).

Well that’s all for me this week.  Happy hunting!