Andrew McCutchen, OF Pirates

Ah June.  The summer has finally come to most countries and the time for trading has finally come in fantasy baseball.  Don’t get me wrong, I know of a lot of teams that trade a lot in April and May.  I just find myself waiting a bit longer than others.  I don’t like to deal any strong potential players away until June.  At least by then I have a pretty good idea if a guy is going to break out, or if he’s going to continue to slide.  Or if a guy who’s been unreal so far will sustain that.  Last season for me in a few leagues was Carlos Quentin.  He came screaming out of the gate in April belting home run after home run.  Frankly he was carrying one of my teams all by himself.  I had drafted him in the late rounds and when June came around I wasn’t sure if this was what to expect from Quentin or if this was simply a mirage.  On the flip side of that is the 2009 version of Arizona’s Chris Young.  This should have been a break out year for him and he’s sucked all year.  Lately though, he’s shown signs of break out.  That’s why I wait until June.  You’ve got a larger sample size and you can start to see some trends.  For example, check out Chris Young’s batting average on balls in play (.231).  Now I’m not suggesting he doesn’t have a lot of issues at the plate as he’s not drawing walks (6.5%) and not making a lot of contact (72% contact rate).  However, in addition to all of his woes he’s been suffering from bad luck on ball in play.  Once this turns around, he should start to get some hits which will hopefully lead to what he does best, which is tallying home runs and thieving bases.  Don’t expect a dramatic turn around though as Young has to learn to be selective at the plate and judging by his early numbers this might not happen in 2009.

Anyway, these are just a couple of reasons why I tend to wait a bit before dealing, especially in keeper leagues.  Speaking of which, if you are in a carry over league, now is the time to deal for 2010 prospects if you’re out of it for this season.  The tough part is making the decision if you’re middling team.  Are you in a reasonable position to finish ‘in the money’? If you aren’t its time to re-group and re-tool with a few deft trades.  Teams will be more willing to give up their better prospects right now as there are more teams that think they are still in the hunt.  If you decide you aren’t, you can quickly deal a strong player for a couple of top prospects.   The closer it gets to the end of the trade deadline period, the more teams there will be that consider themselves out of contention.  At that point, you will be in the same position as everyone else. 

One more point to add while you’re reading.  I see a lot of teams offering up garbage players on the trading block.  For example in one league, I saw Kevin Millwood on the block.  No disrespect to Mr. Millwood or his owners but we all know Millwood is available. Don’t worry, you don’t have to publicize this fact.   Yes he’s pitching well but his current peripheral stats ( .262 BABIP and 84% strand rate both career highs if he were to sustain them) plus pitching in Texas during the summer heat suggest that he won’t keep up his current 2.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.  Anyway, don’t waste your league mate’s time by putting undesirable players on the trade block.  If you’re serious about getting something done you have to offer up something enticing.  Generally speaking, players like Millwood are better off as throw ins to help get a deal done or guys you add while they are playing well and then drop.  Trying to offer them as the main player in the deal just festers distrust from fellow league mates.  With all of the information available in this age, you don’t find too many leagues who aren’t in the ‘know’ anymore.  If you aren’t in an intelligent league, and by intelligent I mean one where Millwood just got dealt for a top 100 player, I’d find a new one that’s actually a challenge.

Tommy Hanson made his big league debut and has no business being on waiver wires anywhere.  Remember this is about the ‘hidden treasures’.  That means non-high profile type prospects.  If Hanson is available in any league basically any format, he should be on your team… now.

This week let’s take a look at some ‘toolsy’ outfielders :

Andrew McCutchen, OF Pirates

I’ve admitted before to being as sucker for toolsy talent and by that I mean guys who can both hit for power and get some solid stolen base numbers.  Mind you, McCutchen is more of the latter considering he had 105 stolen bases over four minor league seasons, including ten before his call up.  A lot of scouts figure McCutchen will eventually hit for some solid power numbers but note that he has never hit more than seventeen home runs in the minor leagues.  This doesn’t mean a heck of a lot as he’s just twenty two years of age and is still considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball.  I would speculate that Andrew will get you at least 10 stolen bases the rest of the way but he may struggle with batting average as he adjusts to major league pitching.  He is hitting .400 right now and will likely not last on wires much longer at that pace.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF Rockies

Almost forgotten in the flurry of call ups recently is Carlos Gonzalez.  He has twice been dealt once from the Diamondbacks system (with others) for Dan Haren.  Before the start of this season he was dealt to the Rockies (with others) for essentially Matt Holliday.  Needless to say, Gonzalez has a ton of skill and potential if he was dealt for such talents as Haren and Holliday.  The reason he’s a solid treasure find is that he’s a post hype call up.  Most players pay more attention to the McCutchen’s of the world as first time call ups tend to get more media attention especially in fantasy.  Gonzalez was called up last season and disappointed.  Now after some more minor league seasoning,  Gonzalez was smoking (albeit in the hitting friendly PCL) with a .339 average and ten home runs.  He’ll get at bats for a Rockies club that is clearly in rebuilding mode.  A must add in NL only leagues.

Last week we looked at two injury prone pitchers Carl Pavano and Kelvim Escobar.  Pavano pitched a complete game shutout of the White Sox striking out six.  Escobar wasn’t quite as sharp but still struck out five over five innings allowing two earn runs versus the Tigers. Considering this was his first start in over a year, I’d say the results weren’t that bad. They both should continue to see success while healthy and have no business being on a waiver wire.

Some other suggestions:

Leo Nunez has been pitching better than current Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom lately.  Don’t be surprised if Nunez ends up with some more save chances.

If Ian Stewart is out there in most any league, he should not be.  This has to be pretty obvious.  He’s got eleven home runs in 150 at bats and a .244 BABIP.  He’s going to bring that batting average up soon and he’s eligible at second base!

Well that’s all for me this week.  Until next time: happy hunting!