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Leading Off: Jun 14, 2009
Leading Off: Jun 14, 2009
By Seth Frankel | Published  06/14/2009 | Leading Off | Unrated
Seth Frankel
A lawyer in his spare time, Seth Frankel is a University of Michigan graduate and hopelessly obsessed Mets fan, who is a newcomer to Sports Grumblings.  He's been hooked on fantasy sports since junior high school, and before that, Strat-O-Matic baseball.   

View all articles by Seth Frankel
Leading Off: Jun 14
Carl Pavano - Fantasy Baseball
Carl Pavano, Indians

Even if the Mets run off a 15-game winning streak, it is going to be awfully tough to get over Friday night's loss. Thankfully, I was only monitoring the game on a Blackberry; otherwise, there is a distinct possibility that Luis Castillo's dropped pop-up would have resulted in the breaking of many items in my apartment. Still, you have to hand it to the Mets – they do not merely lose in your run-of-the-mill fashion. Between Daniel Murphy dropping a fly ball, Ryan Church missing third base, and now this, the Mets ensure high ratings by making you watch until the final out (and sometimes a few minutes after, just in case). And with that out of the way, here is a look a the two-start options for the week:

 

 

Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians, vs. Milwaukee, at Chicago (NL):

Living in New York, I have been inundated by an intense anti-Pavano sentiment. For obvious reasons (considering it is arguably the worst contract the Yankees have ever paid, and they have had some doozies over the years), the New York Post has taken a particular glee in ripping Pavano at every turn. This includes describing virtually every MRI as a visit to the “Carl Pavano Memorial MRI Tube.” You probably should not be fooled by Pavano's overall numbers, as his stat line of 6-5, 5.40, 1.343 is not overly impressive. In May, however, he went 5-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.156 WHIP. June has been opposite ends of the spectrum, with a complete game shutout against the White Sox, followed by an absolute drilling at the hands of the Royals.

 

 Obviously, there is a little bit of concern about consistency. But, outside of that one blip his last time out, he has been very impressive since May 1. Pavano will get the Brewers and the Cubs this time out. Milwaukee has been surprisingly good this year, despite no Ben Sheets and no C.C. Sabathia, as they currently find themselves in first place in the National League Central. The Cubs, on the hand, have been struggling with run production (explaining their current fourth place position in the standings), especially with Alfonso Soriano's disappearance. While the Brewers are not the ideal match-up, the two together should yield strong results on the whole.

 

 

Doug Davis, Arizona Diamondbacks, at Kansas City, at Seattle:

Just one year after beating cancer, Davis has been over-achieving a bit this year, with a 3.65 ERA (down from 4.30 career) and a 1.329 WHIP (down from 1.482 career). The 3-7 record is obviously troubling, and with the Diamondbacks offense, there is little reason to believe that Davis is in line for two wins this week. That being said, the Royals and Mariners are statistically the two worst offenses in the league, so Davis' somewhat outdated histories against these two teams (over 5.00 ERA against both teams lifetime) can be discounted a bit. Davis is a solid option this week.

 

 

Kevin Correia, San Diego Padres, vs. Seattle, vs. Oakland:

At 28-years-old, Correia has not been a productive major leaguer, as he was only mildly serviceable in 2007 for the Giants. His career to date has yielded a 4.62 ERA, with a 1.488 WHIP over 58 career starts. This year has been more of the same for the Padres, going 3-4, 4.80, 1.462 in 12 starts. Do not misunderstand me – Correia is not a good pitcher, and this is more of a hunch than anything given his history, but he does get the Mariners and A's, two of the worst offenses in the league this year. As an added bonus, he gets them in Petco Park, one of the friendliest parks for pitchers in the league (although Correia's numbers would indicate otherwise). In a NL-Only league, I think it is worth rolling the dice. Mixed leagues, not so much.

 

 

Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants, vs. Los Angeles (AL), Texas:

I still cannot sufficiently express how happy I am that the Mets passed on Zito's mammoth seven-year contract just a few years back (he is only in year 3!). The first two years of the deal were absolutely miserable for Zito, even resulting in a brief bullpen demotion. This year, Zito has been resurrected from the dead, as he has lowered his walk rate, raised his strikeout rate (albeit slightly), and obviously based on the first two stats, raised his K/BB rate. Since he does not get too much run support, he is only 3-6 this year, but his 4.09 ERA and 1.431 WHIP, although not fantastic, have made Zito rosterable again.

 

He will be matched up against his former division rivals, the Angels and Rangers. He is obviously not the same pitcher he once was, but in 58 starts, he has compiled a 29-14 record, with a sub-4.00 ERA  That past evidence of success is nice to see, and makes Zito a reasonably decent option for this week.

 

 

Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers, vs. Houston, at San Francisco:

And speaking of resurrections, there is Kevin Millwood, a former Cy Young contender who immediately got sent to the scrap heap after signing with Texas, having only one moderately successful season with the Rangers back in 2006 (and even that season was not that good). Perhaps he has finally figured out the Ballpark at Arlington, going 6-4, with a 2.72 ERA this season, and a 1.209 WHIP, including a 2.19 ERA at home.

 

His strikeouts are virtually non-existent these days, but he will be matched up with two of the worst offenses in the league (the Giants are tied for last in runs while the Astros rank 13th in the NL). With Millwood pitching well this year, he makes for a good two-start option.

 

And finally, we take a look at the Arlington/Coors/Great American/Citizen's Bank watch:

 

Arlington: Houston

Coors:  Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh

Great American: Atlanta, Chicago (AL)

Citizen's Bank: Toronto, Baltimore



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