A lawyer in his spare time, Seth Frankel is a University of Michigan graduate and hopelessly obsessed Mets fan, who is a newcomer to Sports Grumblings. He's been hooked on fantasy sports since junior high school, and before that, Strat-O-Matic baseball.
Even
if the Mets run off a 15-game winning streak, it is going to be awfully tough
to get over Friday night's loss. Thankfully, I was only monitoring the game on
a Blackberry; otherwise, there is a distinct possibility that Luis Castillo's dropped pop-up would
have resulted in the breaking of many items in my apartment. Still, you have to
hand it to the Mets – they do not merely lose in your run-of-the-mill fashion.
Between Daniel Murphy dropping a fly
ball, Ryan Church missing third
base, and now this, the Mets ensure high ratings by making you watch until the
final out (and sometimes a few minutes after, just in case). And with that out
of the way, here is a look a the two-start options for the week:
Carl
Pavano, Cleveland Indians, vs. Milwaukee, at Chicago (NL):
Living
in New York, I have been inundated by an intense anti-Pavano sentiment. For
obvious reasons (considering it is arguably the worst contract the Yankees have
ever paid, and they have had some doozies over the years), the New York Post has taken a particular
glee in ripping Pavano at every turn. This includes describing virtually every
MRI as a visit to the “Carl Pavano Memorial MRI Tube.” You probably should not
be fooled by Pavano's overall numbers, as his stat line of 6-5, 5.40, 1.343 is
not overly impressive. In May, however, he went 5-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.156
WHIP. June has been opposite ends of the spectrum, with a complete game shutout
against the White Sox, followed by an absolute drilling at the hands of the
Royals.
Obviously, there is a little bit of concern
about consistency. But, outside of that one blip his last time out, he has been
very impressive since May 1. Pavano will get the Brewers and the Cubs this time
out. Milwaukee has been surprisingly good this year, despite no Ben Sheets and no C.C. Sabathia, as they currently find themselves in first place in
the National League Central. The Cubs, on the hand, have been struggling with
run production (explaining their current fourth place position in the
standings), especially with Alfonso
Soriano's disappearance. While the Brewers are not the ideal match-up, the
two together should yield strong results on the whole.
Doug
Davis, Arizona Diamondbacks, at Kansas City, at Seattle:
Just
one year after beating cancer, Davis has been over-achieving a bit this year,
with a 3.65 ERA (down from 4.30 career) and a 1.329 WHIP (down from 1.482
career). The 3-7 record is obviously troubling, and with the Diamondbacks
offense, there is little reason to believe that Davis is in line for two wins
this week. That being said, the Royals and Mariners are statistically the two
worst offenses in the league, so Davis' somewhat outdated histories against
these two teams (over 5.00 ERA against both teams lifetime) can be discounted a
bit. Davis is a solid option this week.
Kevin
Correia, San Diego Padres, vs. Seattle, vs. Oakland:
At
28-years-old, Correia has not been a productive major leaguer, as he was only
mildly serviceable in 2007 for the Giants. His career to date has yielded a
4.62 ERA, with a 1.488 WHIP over 58 career starts. This year has been more of
the same for the Padres, going 3-4, 4.80, 1.462 in 12 starts. Do not
misunderstand me – Correia is not a good pitcher, and this is more of a hunch
than anything given his history, but he does get the Mariners and A's, two of
the worst offenses in the league this year. As an added bonus, he gets them in
Petco Park, one of the friendliest parks for pitchers in the league (although
Correia's numbers would indicate otherwise). In a NL-Only league, I think it is
worth rolling the dice. Mixed leagues, not so much.
Barry
Zito, San Francisco Giants, vs. Los Angeles (AL), Texas:
I
still cannot sufficiently express how happy I am that the Mets passed on Zito's
mammoth seven-year contract just a few years back (he is only in year 3!). The
first two years of the deal were absolutely miserable for Zito, even resulting
in a brief bullpen demotion. This year, Zito has been resurrected from the
dead, as he has lowered his walk rate, raised his strikeout rate (albeit
slightly), and obviously based on the first two stats, raised his K/BB rate.
Since he does not get too much run support, he is only 3-6 this year, but his
4.09 ERA and 1.431 WHIP, although not fantastic, have made Zito rosterable
again.
He
will be matched up against his former division rivals, the Angels and Rangers.
He is obviously not the same pitcher he once was, but in 58 starts, he has
compiled a 29-14 record, with a sub-4.00 ERAThat past evidence of success is nice to see, and makes Zito a
reasonably decent option for this week.
Kevin
Millwood, Texas Rangers, vs. Houston, at San Francisco:
And
speaking of resurrections, there is Kevin Millwood, a former Cy Young contender
who immediately got sent to the scrap heap after signing with Texas, having
only one moderately successful season with the Rangers back in 2006 (and even
that season was not that good). Perhaps he has finally figured out the Ballpark
at Arlington, going 6-4, with a 2.72 ERA this season, and a 1.209 WHIP,
including a 2.19 ERA at home.
His
strikeouts are virtually non-existent these days, but he will be matched up
with two of the worst offenses in the league (the Giants are tied for last in
runs while the Astros rank 13thin the
NL). With Millwood pitching well this year, he makes for a good two-start
option.
And
finally, we take a look at the Arlington/Coors/Great American/Citizen's Bank
watch: