Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

Let’s face it, fantasy sports are not for the meek or conservative.  If you cannot take a few gambles as far as players are concerned you will undoubtedly finish in the middle or worse.  You can draft safely and make safe pick ups or trades but it doesn’t matter.  If you play this way, your team will undoubtedly finish out of first.  Why you ask?  Well think about it.  The team that is in first probably took chances on say Erik Bedard who he could have had in the middle rounds, maybe even off waivers in certain leagues.  Now Bedard was a known talent but gambling on him meant inheriting his injury risk.  He could give you 30 starts or he could give you 5, meanwhile he would continue to pile up large strike out numbers.  Either way Bedard was a risk that has paid off for many teams.   

However, its not just injury risks (although I could also point out that annual injury prone players like Hank Blalock and Nick Johnson have been surprisingly health) that make a first place fantasy team.  Its sometimes about nabbing that lightning in a bottle player that has a career year like Adam Jones.  Its even harder to predict these players as all you have to analyze is a small sample of major league numbers combined with some stellar minor league ones.  The minor league numbers indicate skills but they don’t always translate, at least immediately (ie see Delmon Young) to major league stardom.  Now bear in mind that I’m not discussing rookies here.  I mean 2^nd or 3^rd year players that actually drop beyond where even the top rookies are drafted.  For example where did Matt Weiters and David Price go in your draft?  And where did Adam Jones go?  And which would you rather have on your fantasy team up to this point and possibly beyond?  Exactly.  Nothing against Weiters or Price, but the rookies tend to get a lot more press and thus get drafted too early given their production.  There is GENERALLY a learning curve to the major league game.  Also, there are no guarantees that a can’t miss prospect is actually can’t miss.  I don’t mean to slam Alex Gordon here but at the time he was considered as can’t miss as Matt Weiters.  Mind you, Gordon still has the potential to bust out but this is 3^rd year in the league and thus far would be considered a disappointment.  Anyway, the true treasure hunter looks under all the rocks and tosses away all the branches to find value whether others do not.  Drafting a completely undervalued, yet highly skilled player like Adam Jones in the late rounds is exactly the type of risk I prefer to take on.

Also, remember that there is a fair element of luck involved with playing this game.  If you play in a public league, or say one modeled after one, you will undoubtedly deal with the phenomenon of not being at the computer at the right time.  You know what I’m talking about.  You were at work or asleep and starting player ‘A’ gets hurt leaving tons of playing time for substitute player ‘B’.  While you’re away from the computer the competition has already picked up substitute player ‘B ‘ and has even managed to brag about it on the league message board before you even hear about the news.  This can be frustrating, although I’m sure from time to time this player is also snagged by you.  There is no skill involved here, just plain luck of the draw.  In other words you can build the best team possible out of the draft and even make solid pick ups throughout the year only to get beaten to the best pick up by luck.

With that let’s take a look at this week’s suggested Treasures:

Macier Izturis 2B,3B, SS Angels

With the recent demotion of Howie Kendrick, this opens up at bats for speedy utility infielder Izturis.  Izturis is far from a super star or elite talent that has been waiting in the wings but he can fill in at every infield spot in most leagues.  For those in dire need of stolen bases Izturis makes for the perfect short term fill in.  He won’t hurt your batting average (or on base percentage) and fills a sometimes difficult position to fill (2B or SS).  But the best part of Izturis as the runs and stolen bases as he usually bats near the top of line up as a table setter.  He’s not blazingly fast but given a full year of at bats he would get somewhere between 18 and 20.  A solid point to be made about Izturis whether its good or bad, is that Kendrick, the player Izturis is replacing in the lineup, was suffering with a .269 BABIP this season.  I don’t expect a career .345 BABIP player to last long at Triple A, as eventually his hits have to start falling into play.  In addition keep a close eye on who the Angels deploy recent call up Sean Rodriguez.  Rodriguez has shown some nice power potential in the minor leagues which might affect Izturis’s playing time.

Jordan Zimmerman SP Nationals

OK, so its getting to the part of the season I enjoy the most.  That’s because there is a decent enough sample size to start using FIP (fielding independent pitching) and BABIP with some strong results. That being said, Zimmerman is remarkably under owned for the calibre of pitcher he is.  Albeit, he plays for the worst team in the league which funny enough also has the leagues’ worst bullpen.  Don’t let this deter you from picking him up though.  This just means you’re going to a few less chances at wins with him on your roster.  What I like about Zimmerman is that in his short time in the majors he’s got a fantastic K/9 (9.47) and BB/9(2.53) which completely undermines his terrible 5.37 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .345 BABIP.  This is where we bring in fielding independent pitching, which is an adjusted ERA value which takes into account what a pitcher has direct control over.  In other words, how effective is Jordan Zimmerman if he was 1) not suffering from bad luck and 2) had decent defence behind him.  His current FIP is 3.81.  If you take into account that he’s a rookie pitcher this is outstanding.  Note that his BABIP will eventually revert to the average (around .300) and given his aforementioned strikeout rate we have the makings of a good second half pitcher to own.  He won’t help in wins but those suffering in ERA and WHIP want to grab this guy as he should help lower your overall ratios in rotisserie leagues going forward.

Last week we looked at Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez both toolsy young outfielders for the Pirates and Rockies respectively.  McCutchen is holding his own with 2 stolen bases and a .333 batting average.  Again, I don’t think McCutchen will show much power this season so temper your expectations for his overall production.  Gonzalez also has 2 stolen bases and in a sample size is suffering from poor BABIP (.261).  He’s shown a bit better batting eye from his previous tour of duty (8.8% from 4.1% in 2008) but is struggling with 1) making contact (74.2%) and 2) getting loft on the ball (40.9% ground ball rate).  Essentially he’s shown little of what he was doing in Triple A before his call up (a .366 batting average with ten home runs!).  Keep the faith as Gonzalez does play in Coors Field on a regular basis.

Don’t look now but Luke Hochevar has two quality starts in his past two starts.  He only threw 80 pitches in a 9 inning complete game win versus a fairly strong Reds offence.

Phillies new closer Ryan Madson should not be available in mostly any league which plays with saves as a scoring category.

As far as other low FIP high ERA guys who you might want to look at, check out both Brad Penny (4.38 FIP and 5.37 ERA: he’s been surprisingly effective folks) and Gavin Floyd (3.83 FIP and 4.94 ERA). 

Well that’s all for me this week folks.  Happy hunting!