Scott Podsednik, White Sox

Last week we discussed risk among other things in fantasy baseball.  Mostly we dealt with it as related to the draft.  This week let’s talk a bit about risk and rewards in trade discussion in a superbly informed fantasy game landscape. 

Let’s face the facts.  Gone are the days where you can trade player ‘A‘ who came out the gate hot, is relatively unknown and will undoubtedly falter for stud player B.  Yes, I know it seems pretty obvious and there are still trades that go through like this.  I would doubt though that anyone out there can seriously say they’ve seen a ton of these types of trades over the past few years.  Why is that?  Well, the information age is exactly that, a glut of data that is now twisted, turned and spit out in a relatively similar fashion over several dozen different web sites.  A few years ago most people had no idea what batting average on balls in play or strand rates were and now if you don’t cover those statistics you are considered irrelevant.

So let’s talk trade requests in the new world.  Or better, let’s think about how to tackle making trade offers when the average fantasy game player has access to the same amount and depth of information that you do.  At the end of the day, you’re not going to get away with dumb trade offers if you want to get something done.  For instance, I’ve seen one trade offer a friend of mine had which in a carry over league was asking for Johnny Damon in return for his Adam Jones.  The biggest issue I have with offers like this is context.  As in as the person offering the trade, try to spend at least a minute looking at the team you’re offering to.  For example, in this league my friend’s team is spinning its wheels this season with no real shot at a top 3 spot this season.  Johnny Damon is a good player but he’s going to be 37 while Adam Jones looks like he’s coming into his own nicely at age 23.  Now you can debate different league setups etc where salaries and years of service come into play but this league is a straight up, no frills, keep the guys until they die type of league.  No offence to Mr. Damon, who is having an outstanding year in the Bronx but long term Adam Jones is the guy I want in as many leagues as possible. 

Again, this is all about circumstances.  In a one year league, trading the formerly red-hot Jones for Damon might make sense, as there is no way Jones keeps up that ridiculous BABIP.  He eventually has to cool off a bit and Damon is a player who’s production has been fairly consistent every season.  However how do you trade when everyone is privy to the same information? Pay attention to the other team’s strengths and weaknesses.  It doesn’t make sense to take on an older player with virtually no upside for a top young player when your team is out for this season.  If the team is basically out of it, why not offer another young player in return for Jones?  Or seek out one of that team’s slightly older players?  Add to your assessment of the players team that there will be certain players he/she will deem ‘harder to get’.  When you need to get a deal done for a stat category it sometimes makes more sense make an offer for a lesser valued player.  You take a hit in the trade or market value of a player but gain in the category.  This is a welcome trade off when you’re competing for a championship. 

With that, let’s get on to this week’s treasures:

Garrett Anderson, OF Braves

Did you forget about this guy?  Yeah he kind of does that.  He was a valued Mr. Consistency-type between 2000-2003 seasons who was counted on for .290-28-100 and 160 games played.  He has since had a pen chance for injuries but is still a player who could be poised for large home run totals in the second half.  Why you ask?  Well his home run per fly ball rate is currently at a career low (5.7%) but he’s still hitting the ball in the air 57.9% of the time, which coincidentally his right in line with his career numbers.  The bottom line here is eventually some of the bad luck Anderson’s had on fly balls getting out of the park will change.  He’s almost half way through the season and has only 3 home runs when in his career he’s never had less than 15.  Yes, he’s old and likely over the hill a bit.  However, he’s a prime candidate for a solid power hitting second half.

Scott Podsednik, OF White Sox

Do you like players on hot streaks?  Yeah who doesn’t.  Scott Podsednik is on quite a tear and likely worth picking up in all leagues at this point.  His BABIP is extremely high (.341) but more or less in line with his career mark of .324.  This means he will likely slow down but could still post some nice batting average and steals marks even if he does.  He’s got five steals in his past fifteen games and two home runs to boot!  Manager Ozzie Guillen is known to play aggressively on the bases.  Bear in mind, the home runs will not continue but if you need stolen bases Podsy gets them in bunches. 

Brad Penny, SP Red Sox

Not too often I will double-recommend a player. Let’s look at Brad Penny in more detail after a mere ‘suggestion’ of picking him up last week.  Daisuke Matsuzaka has been brutal and thus the Red Sox did the standard issue by putting him on the disabled list with ‘shoulder weakness’.  Please note there is no disabled list injury for ‘sucking really badly’ and the qualification for said injury should be more earned runs allowed than innings pitched. The Yankee’s have already used this for starter Ching Ming Wang earlier in the year.  The key thing for potential Penny owners to note is that he’s not in danger of losing his spot in the starting rotation any time soon. As I mentioned last week, Penny has been surprisingly unlucky in 2009 with a .337 BABIP (see Sports Grumblings uses the statistic!  Count us in as one of the several dozen sites) and a strand rate of below the major league average of 70% (66.4%).  This essentially means as long as he’s not walking a lot of guys (an effective 3.04 BB/9) he makes for a pretty solid buy low candidate.  Now note a few things about Penny’s team.  1) He plays for a strong offensive team with a solid bullpen (i.e. although wins are fickle, he should get some) and 2) He pitches in the toughest division in the American League, where every team is an offensive threat.  My suggestion?  Monitor him in shallow mixed leagues but make sure he’s not floating out there in 14 team or deeper leagues as he should turn his 4.94 ERA and 1.55 WHIP into something closer resembling his career numbers (4.10 and 1.35).  While he lowers his own numbers, you’ll want him on your roster to help lower your ERA and WHIP. 

Last week we discussed Maicer Izturis and Jordan Zimmermann.  Izturis had a 3 hit game last week but otherwise hasn’t done much.  Be patient as recent call up Sean Rodriguez has been struggling hitting .125.  Realistically given their performances, Howie Kendrick who has been hitting well in the minors will be back sooner rather than later.  Zimmermann only had one start since we mentioned him last week.  It was against one of the best offensive teams in the league, the Toronto Blue Jays.  He managed to pitch quite well allowing one run over 5.2 innings pitched striking out 3 against 3 walks.  Again, keeper leaguers should invest here as he should come via trade relatively cheaply and boasts potential ace talent.

Well that’s all for me this week.  Happy hunting!